bayesRatings

Marlins at Tigers

MLB · Sunday, Apr 12 · 12:40 PM CT · Comerica Park · Final MIA 2 – DET 8
← MLB / Apr 12

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
MIA000000101260
DET300013018120
Team box
MIA·DET
6
hits
12
1
home runs
3
2
walks
3
8
strikeouts
6
137
pitches thrown
125
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Dillon DinglerDET1-4113
Kevin McGonigleDET3-4211
Kerry CarpenterDET1-3112
Otto LopezMIA1-3112
Javier BaezDET1-4001
Riley GreeneDET2-3200
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Sandy Alcantara (L)MIA6.010724
Tarik Skubal (W)DET6.22127

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
DET +7
MIA +7
123456789
largest lead: DET 7 · MIA 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was MIA 45%, DET 55% · Updated Apr 12

Expected margin
DET by 0.7
Expected score
DET 4.6 – 3.9 MIA
Expected total
8.6
MarlinsThe matchupTigers
+122Our fair odds−122
3.9Expected runs4.6
−0.07Power rating+0.04
4.5Runs / game4.1
4.1Allowed / game3.9
8.3Hits / game7.7
0.67Home runs / game0.60
3.3Walks drawn / game3.8
8−7Season record6−9
4−6Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
MIA chance · DET chance
Our model fair45.1%54.9%
Kalshi40.7%63.6%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 12:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
MIAMiami Marlins+12245%+14640.7%———
DETDetroit Tigers−12255%−17563.6%———
SpreadDET by 0.7
MIAMiami Marlins+0.7our margin————
DETDetroit Tigers−0.7our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.6
Over8.6our total————
Under8.6our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Detroit Tigers by 0.7 expected
Miami Marlins by 13 runs: <1%Miami Marlins by 12 runs: <1%Miami Marlins by 11 runs: <1%Miami Marlins by 10 runs: <1%Miami Marlins by 9 runs: 1%Miami Marlins by 8 runs: 1%Miami Marlins by 7 runs: 2%Miami Marlins by 6 runs: 2%Miami Marlins by 5 runs: 3%Miami Marlins by 4 runs: 5%Miami Marlins by 3 runs: 6%Miami Marlins by 2 runs: 9%Miami Marlins by 1 run: 15%Detroit Tigers by 1 run: 13%Detroit Tigers by 2 runs: 11%Detroit Tigers by 3 runs: 8%Detroit Tigers by 4 runs: 6%Detroit Tigers by 5 runs: 5%Detroit Tigers by 6 runs: 4%Detroit Tigers by 7 runs: 3%Detroit Tigers by 8 runs: 2%Detroit Tigers by 9 runs: 1%Detroit Tigers by 10 runs: 1%Detroit Tigers by 11 runs: 1%Detroit Tigers by 12 runs: <1%Detroit Tigers by 13 runs: <1%
← MIA wins byDET wins by →
Detroit Tigers wins by 2 or more42%
Detroit Tigers wins by 3 or more31%
Miami Marlins wins by 2 or more30%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.6 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 7%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.566%
Total over 8.546%
Total over 10.530%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
MIASandy Alcantara SP · last 3 starts: 24.1 IP, 0.74 ERA, 18 Kstarted
DETTarik Skubal SP · last 3 starts: 17.2 IP, 2.55 ERA, 16 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
MIA·DET
Apr 11 at DET
last game
Apr 11 vs MIA
0 days
days of rest
0 days
7
games in last 7 days
7
3rd straight road game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 15+ games
MIA·DET
−0.07
rating (0 = average)
+0.04
4.5
runs / game
4.1
4.1
runs allowed / game
3.9
8−7
season record
6−9
7−3
home record
4−1
1−4
away record
2−8
L2
streak
W2
4−6
last 10
4−6
8.3
hits / game
7.7
0.67
home runs / game
0.60
3.3
walks drawn / game
3.8
7.4
batter strikeouts / game
8.9
9.0
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.8
1.00
errors / game
0.73

Rating Trend

MIA · DET · 18 days
Miami MarlinsDetroit Tigers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · DET 5−5
Apr 11at DETDET 6 − 1
Apr 10at DETDET 2 − 0
Sep 14, 2025at MIADET 2 − 0
Sep 13, 2025at MIAMIA 6 − 4
Sep 12, 2025at MIAMIA 8 − 2
May 15, 2024at DETMIA 2 − 0
May 14, 2024at DETMIA 1 − 0
May 13, 2024at DETDET 6 − 5
Jul 30, 2023at MIAMIA 8 − 6
Jul 29, 2023at MIADET 5 − 0

MIA · Last 10

4−6 · streak L2
Apr 11at DET1 − 6L
Apr 10at DET0 − 2L
Apr 9vs CIN8 − 1W
Apr 8vs CIN7 − 4W
Apr 7vs CIN3 − 6L
Apr 6vs CIN0 − 2L
Apr 5at NYY7 − 6W
Apr 4at NYY7 − 9L
Apr 3at NYY2 − 8L
Apr 1vs CHW10 − 0W

DET · Last 10

4−6 · streak W2
Apr 11vs MIA6 − 1W
Apr 10vs MIA2 − 0W
Apr 9at MIN1 − 3L
Apr 8at MIN6 − 8L
Apr 7at MIN2 − 4L
Apr 6at MIN3 − 7L
Apr 5vs STL3 − 5L
Apr 4vs STL11 − 6W
Apr 3vs STL4 − 0W
Apr 1at ARI0 − 1L