bayesRatings

Marlins at Yankees

MLB · Saturday, Apr 4 · 6:05 PM CT · Yankee Stadium · Final MIA 7 – NYY 9
← MLB / Apr 4

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
MIA2101000217151
NYY00002313961
Team box
MIA·NYY
15
hits
6
0
home runs
1
5
walks
10
10
strikeouts
11
181
pitches thrown
198
1
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Cody BellingerNYY1-3113
Xavier EdwardsMIA3-4201
Javier SanojaMIA2-5002
Heriberto HernandezMIA1-5002
Agustin RamirezMIA2-3201
Giancarlo StantonNYY1-3102
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Max MeyerMIA4.23236
Michael Petersen (L)MIA1.01230
Ryan WeathersNYY3.26334
Brent Headrick (W)NYY0.20010
David Bednar (S)NYY1.03112

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
NYY +4
MIA +4
123456789
largest lead: NYY 3 · MIA 4lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was MIA 39%, NYY 61% · Updated Apr 4

Expected margin
NYY by 1.4
Expected score
NYY 5.4 – 4.0 MIA
Expected total
9.4
MarlinsThe matchupYankees
+155Our fair odds−155
4.0Expected runs5.4
−0.06Power rating+0.28
5.0Runs / game4.6
3.7Allowed / game1.1
8.6Hits / game7.4
1.14Home runs / game1.00
2.7Walks drawn / game3.9
5−2Season record6−1
7−3Last 107−3

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
MIA chance · NYY chance
Our model fair39.3%60.7%
Kalshi38.6%66.6%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:05 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
MIAMiami Marlins+15539%+15938.6%———
NYYNew York Yankees−15561%−19966.6%———
SpreadNYY by 1.4
MIAMiami Marlins+1.4our margin————
NYYNew York Yankees−1.4our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.4
Over9.4our total————
Under9.4our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

New York Yankees by 1.4 expected
Miami Marlins by 15 runs: <1%Miami Marlins by 14 runs: <1%Miami Marlins by 13 runs: <1%Miami Marlins by 12 runs: <1%Miami Marlins by 11 runs: <1%Miami Marlins by 10 runs: <1%Miami Marlins by 9 runs: 1%Miami Marlins by 8 runs: 1%Miami Marlins by 7 runs: 1%Miami Marlins by 6 runs: 2%Miami Marlins by 5 runs: 3%Miami Marlins by 4 runs: 4%Miami Marlins by 3 runs: 5%Miami Marlins by 2 runs: 8%Miami Marlins by 1 run: 13%New York Yankees by 1 run: 13%New York Yankees by 2 runs: 10%New York Yankees by 3 runs: 8%New York Yankees by 4 runs: 7%New York Yankees by 5 runs: 6%New York Yankees by 6 runs: 4%New York Yankees by 7 runs: 3%New York Yankees by 8 runs: 3%New York Yankees by 9 runs: 2%New York Yankees by 10 runs: 1%New York Yankees by 11 runs: 1%New York Yankees by 12 runs: 1%New York Yankees by 13 runs: <1%New York Yankees by 14 runs: <1%New York Yankees by 15 runs: <1%
← MIA wins byNYY wins by →
New York Yankees wins by 2 or more48%
New York Yankees wins by 3 or more38%
Miami Marlins wins by 2 or more26%
Decided by one run26%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.4 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 5%4 runs: 4%5 runs: 9%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 7%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 4%15 runs: 4%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%25 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.561%
Total over 9.543%
Total over 11.528%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
MIAMax Meyer SP · last 3 starts: 13.1 IP, 7.42 ERA, 10 Kstarted
NYYRyan Weathers SP · last 3 starts: 13.0 IP, 6.23 ERA, 17 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
MIA·NYY
Apr 3 at NYY
last game
Apr 3 vs MIA
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
5
2nd straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 7+ games
MIA·NYY
−0.06
rating (0 = average)
+0.28
5.0
runs / game
4.6
3.7
runs allowed / game
1.1
5−2
season record
6−1
5−1
home record
1−0
0−1
away record
5−1
L1
streak
W3
7−3
last 10
7−3
8.6
hits / game
7.4
1.14
home runs / game
1.00
2.7
walks drawn / game
3.9
7.4
batter strikeouts / game
9.7
10.0
pitcher strikeouts / game
9.3
0.71
errors / game
0.29

Rating Trend

MIA · NYY · 10 days
Miami MarlinsNew York Yankees
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · NYY 4−6
Apr 3at NYYNYY 8 − 2
Aug 3, 2025at MIAMIA 7 − 3
Aug 2, 2025at MIAMIA 2 − 0
Aug 1, 2025at MIAMIA 13 − 12
Apr 10, 2024at NYYMIA 5 − 2
Apr 9, 2024at NYYNYY 3 − 2
Apr 8, 2024at NYYNYY 7 − 0
Aug 13, 2023at MIAMIA 8 − 7
Aug 12, 2023at MIAMIA 3 − 1
Aug 11, 2023at MIANYY 9 − 4

MIA · Last 10

7−3 · streak L1
Apr 3at NYY2 − 8L
Apr 1vs CHW10 − 0W
Mar 31vs CHW9 − 2W
Mar 30vs CHW4 − 9L
Mar 29vs COL4 − 3W
Mar 28vs COL4 − 3W
Mar 27vs COL2 − 1W
Sep 28, 2025vs NYM4 − 0W
Sep 27, 2025vs NYM0 − 5L
Sep 26, 2025vs NYM6 − 2W

NYY · Last 10

7−3 · streak W3
Apr 3vs MIA8 − 2W
Apr 1at SEA5 − 3W
Mar 31at SEA5 − 0W
Mar 30at SEA1 − 2L
Mar 28at SF3 − 1W
Mar 27at SF3 − 0W
Mar 25at SF7 − 0W
Oct 8, 2025vs TOR2 − 5L
Oct 7, 2025vs TOR9 − 6W
Oct 5, 2025at TOR7 − 13L