bayesRatings

Marlins at Yankees

MLB · Friday, Apr 3 · 12:35 PM CT · Yankee Stadium · Final MIA 2 – NYY 8
← MLB / Apr 3

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
MIA100010000241
NYY22000112860
Team box
MIA·NYY
4
hits
6
2
home runs
2
0
walks
11
10
strikeouts
10
180
pitches thrown
110
1
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Aaron JudgeNYY2-3213
Ben RiceNYY2-5113
Xavier EdwardsMIA2-4111
Owen CaissieMIA1-3111
Agustin RamirezMIA1-3000
Cody BellingerNYY1-4100
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Eury Perez (L)MIA4.02464
Will Warren (W)NYY5.24206

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
NYY +6
MIA +6
123456789
largest lead: NYY 6 · MIA 1lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was MIA 40%, NYY 60% · Updated Apr 3

Expected margin
NYY by 1.3
Expected score
NYY 5.3 – 4.0 MIA
Expected total
9.3
MarlinsThe matchupYankees
+149Our fair odds−149
4.0Expected runs5.3
−0.05Power rating+0.27
5.5Runs / game4.0
3.0Allowed / game1.0
9.3Hits / game7.7
1.00Home runs / game0.83
3.2Walks drawn / game2.7
5−1Season record5−1
7−3Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
MIA chance · NYY chance
Our model fair40.1%59.9%
Kalshi42.7%62.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 12:35 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
MIAMiami Marlins+14940%+13442.7%———
NYYNew York Yankees−14960%−16862.7%———
SpreadNYY by 1.3
MIAMiami Marlins+1.3our margin————
NYYNew York Yankees−1.3our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.3
Over9.3our total————
Under9.3our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

New York Yankees by 1.3 expected
Miami Marlins by 15 runs: <1%Miami Marlins by 14 runs: <1%Miami Marlins by 13 runs: <1%Miami Marlins by 12 runs: <1%Miami Marlins by 11 runs: <1%Miami Marlins by 10 runs: <1%Miami Marlins by 9 runs: 1%Miami Marlins by 8 runs: 1%Miami Marlins by 7 runs: 1%Miami Marlins by 6 runs: 2%Miami Marlins by 5 runs: 3%Miami Marlins by 4 runs: 4%Miami Marlins by 3 runs: 6%Miami Marlins by 2 runs: 8%Miami Marlins by 1 run: 14%New York Yankees by 1 run: 13%New York Yankees by 2 runs: 10%New York Yankees by 3 runs: 8%New York Yankees by 4 runs: 7%New York Yankees by 5 runs: 6%New York Yankees by 6 runs: 4%New York Yankees by 7 runs: 3%New York Yankees by 8 runs: 2%New York Yankees by 9 runs: 2%New York Yankees by 10 runs: 1%New York Yankees by 11 runs: 1%New York Yankees by 12 runs: 1%New York Yankees by 13 runs: <1%New York Yankees by 14 runs: <1%New York Yankees by 15 runs: <1%
← MIA wins byNYY wins by →
New York Yankees wins by 2 or more47%
New York Yankees wins by 3 or more37%
Miami Marlins wins by 2 or more26%
Decided by one run26%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.3 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 5%4 runs: 4%5 runs: 9%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 4%15 runs: 4%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.560%
Total over 9.542%
Total over 11.527%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
MIAEury Perez SP · last 3 starts: 16.1 IP, 3.31 ERA, 28 Kstarted
NYYWill Warren SP · last 3 starts: 14.2 IP, 3.68 ERA, 14 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
MIA·NYY
Apr 1 vs CHW
last game
Apr 1 at SEA
1 day
days of rest
1 day
6
games in last 7 days
5
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 6+ games
MIA·NYY
−0.05
rating (0 = average)
+0.27
5.5
runs / game
4.0
3.0
runs allowed / game
1.0
5−1
season record
5−1
5−1
home record
0−0
0−0
away record
5−1
W2
streak
W2
7−3
last 10
6−4
9.3
hits / game
7.7
1.00
home runs / game
0.83
3.2
walks drawn / game
2.7
7.0
batter strikeouts / game
9.7
10.0
pitcher strikeouts / game
9.2
0.67
errors / game
0.33

Rating Trend

MIA · NYY · 9 days
Miami MarlinsNew York Yankees
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · NYY 4−6
Aug 3, 2025at MIAMIA 7 − 3
Aug 2, 2025at MIAMIA 2 − 0
Aug 1, 2025at MIAMIA 13 − 12
Apr 10, 2024at NYYMIA 5 − 2
Apr 9, 2024at NYYNYY 3 − 2
Apr 8, 2024at NYYNYY 7 − 0
Aug 13, 2023at MIAMIA 8 − 7
Aug 12, 2023at MIAMIA 3 − 1
Aug 11, 2023at MIANYY 9 − 4
Aug 1, 2021at MIANYY 3 − 1

MIA · Last 10

7−3 · streak W2
Apr 1vs CHW10 − 0W
Mar 31vs CHW9 − 2W
Mar 30vs CHW4 − 9L
Mar 29vs COL4 − 3W
Mar 28vs COL4 − 3W
Mar 27vs COL2 − 1W
Sep 28, 2025vs NYM4 − 0W
Sep 27, 2025vs NYM0 − 5L
Sep 26, 2025vs NYM6 − 2W
Sep 25, 2025at PHI0 − 1L

NYY · Last 10

6−4 · streak W2
Apr 1at SEA5 − 3W
Mar 31at SEA5 − 0W
Mar 30at SEA1 − 2L
Mar 28at SF3 − 1W
Mar 27at SF3 − 0W
Mar 25at SF7 − 0W
Oct 8, 2025vs TOR2 − 5L
Oct 7, 2025vs TOR9 − 6W
Oct 5, 2025at TOR7 − 13L
Oct 4, 2025at TOR1 − 10L