bayesRatings

Yankees at Mariners

MLB · Wednesday, Apr 1 · 3:10 PM CT · T-Mobile Park · Final NYY 5 – SEA 3
← MLB / Apr 1

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
NYY100003001560
SEA000000021371
Team box
NYY·SEA
6
hits
7
2
home runs
0
3
walks
1
9
strikeouts
10
150
pitches thrown
132
0
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Paul GoldschmidtNYY1-4113
Ben RiceNYY2-3212
Cal RaleighSEA1-4002
Dominic CanzoneSEA2-4101
Amed RosarioNYY1-3000
Jazz Chisholm Jr.NYY1-4000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Cam Schlittler (W)NYY6.12007
David Bednar (S)NYY1.13101
George Kirby (L)SEA6.05436

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
SEA +4
NYY +4
123456789
largest lead: SEA 0 · NYY 4lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was NYY 51%, SEA 49% · Updated Apr 1

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
NYY 4.6 – 4.3 SEA
Expected total
8.9
YankeesThe matchupMariners
−105Our fair odds+105
4.6Expected runs4.3
+0.26Power rating+0.12
3.8Runs / game4.0
0.6Allowed / game3.2
8.0Hits / game6.7
0.60Home runs / game1.33
2.6Walks drawn / game4.2
4−1Season record3−3
6−4Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
NYY chance · SEA chance
Our model fair51.3%48.7%
Kalshi49.7%54.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 3:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
NYYNew York Yankees−10551%+10149.7%———
SEASeattle Mariners+10549%−12154.7%———
Spreadabout even
NYYNew York Yankees−0.3our margin————
SEASeattle Mariners+0.3our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.9
Over8.9our total————
Under8.9our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
New York Yankees by 13 runs: <1%New York Yankees by 12 runs: <1%New York Yankees by 11 runs: 1%New York Yankees by 10 runs: 1%New York Yankees by 9 runs: 1%New York Yankees by 8 runs: 2%New York Yankees by 7 runs: 2%New York Yankees by 6 runs: 3%New York Yankees by 5 runs: 4%New York Yankees by 4 runs: 6%New York Yankees by 3 runs: 7%New York Yankees by 2 runs: 10%New York Yankees by 1 run: 13%Seattle Mariners by 1 run: 15%Seattle Mariners by 2 runs: 9%Seattle Mariners by 3 runs: 7%Seattle Mariners by 4 runs: 5%Seattle Mariners by 5 runs: 4%Seattle Mariners by 6 runs: 3%Seattle Mariners by 7 runs: 2%Seattle Mariners by 8 runs: 1%Seattle Mariners by 9 runs: 1%Seattle Mariners by 10 runs: 1%Seattle Mariners by 11 runs: <1%Seattle Mariners by 12 runs: <1%Seattle Mariners by 13 runs: <1%
← NYY wins bySEA wins by →
New York Yankees wins by 2 or more39%
New York Yankees wins by 3 or more29%
Seattle Mariners wins by 2 or more33%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.9 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.569%
Total over 8.549%
Total over 10.532%
Total from 7 to 1036%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
NYYCam Schlittler SP · last 3 starts: 19.2 IP, 0.92 ERA, 22 Kstarted
SEAGeorge Kirby SP · last 3 starts: 14.0 IP, 6.43 ERA, 13 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
NYY·SEA
Mar 31 at SEA
last game
Mar 31 vs NYY
0 days
days of rest
0 days
5
games in last 7 days
6
6th straight road game
home / road
7th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 5+ games
NYY·SEA
+0.26
rating (0 = average)
+0.12
3.8
runs / game
4.0
0.6
runs allowed / game
3.2
4−1
season record
3−3
0−0
home record
3−3
4−1
away record
0−0
W1
streak
L1
6−4
last 10
4−6
8.0
hits / game
6.7
0.60
home runs / game
1.33
2.6
walks drawn / game
4.2
9.8
batter strikeouts / game
10.3
9.0
pitcher strikeouts / game
11.2
0.40
errors / game
0.50

Rating Trend

NYY · SEA · 7 days
New York YankeesSeattle Mariners
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · SEA 3−7
Mar 31at SEANYY 5 − 0
Mar 30at SEASEA 2 − 1
Jul 10, 2025at NYYNYY 6 − 5
Jul 9, 2025at NYYNYY 9 − 6
Jul 8, 2025at NYYNYY 10 − 3
May 14, 2025at SEANYY 3 − 2
May 13, 2025at SEASEA 2 − 1
May 12, 2025at SEANYY 11 − 5
Sep 19, 2024at SEASEA 3 − 2
Sep 18, 2024at SEANYY 2 − 1

NYY · Last 10

6−4 · streak W1
Mar 31at SEA5 − 0W
Mar 30at SEA1 − 2L
Mar 28at SF3 − 1W
Mar 27at SF3 − 0W
Mar 25at SF7 − 0W
Oct 8, 2025vs TOR2 − 5L
Oct 7, 2025vs TOR9 − 6W
Oct 5, 2025at TOR7 − 13L
Oct 4, 2025at TOR1 − 10L
Oct 2, 2025vs BOS4 − 0W

SEA · Last 10

4−6 · streak L1
Mar 31vs NYY0 − 5L
Mar 30vs NYY2 − 1W
Mar 29vs CLE8 − 0W
Mar 28vs CLE5 − 6L
Mar 27vs CLE5 − 1W
Mar 26vs CLE4 − 6L
Oct 20, 2025at TOR3 − 4L
Oct 19, 2025at TOR2 − 6L
Oct 17, 2025vs TOR6 − 2W
Oct 16, 2025vs TOR2 − 8L