bayesRatings

Yankees at Mariners

MLB · Tuesday, Mar 31 · 8:40 PM CT · T-Mobile Park · Final NYY 5 – SEA 0
← MLB / Mar 31

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
NYY200003000590
SEA000000000041
Team box
NYY·SEA
9
hits
4
0
home runs
0
3
walks
1
10
strikeouts
7
107
pitches thrown
144
0
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Giancarlo StantonNYY2-4002
Ben RiceNYY2-2201
Cody BellingerNYY2-3200
Trent GrishamNYY2-4100
Jazz Chisholm Jr.NYY1-4001
Josh NaylorSEA1-4000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Max Fried (W)NYY7.03016
Logan Gilbert (L)SEA5.17536

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
SEA +5
NYY +5
123456789
largest lead: SEA 0 · NYY 5lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was NYY 51%, SEA 49% · Updated Mar 31

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
NYY 4.6 – 4.4 SEA
Expected total
9.0
YankeesThe matchupMariners
−102Our fair odds+102
4.6Expected runs4.4
+0.24Power rating+0.13
3.5Runs / game4.8
0.8Allowed / game2.8
7.8Hits / game7.2
0.75Home runs / game1.60
2.5Walks drawn / game4.8
3−1Season record3−2
6−4Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
NYY chance · SEA chance
Our model fair50.5%49.5%
Kalshi53.7%50.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 8:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
NYYNew York Yankees−10251%−11653.7%———
SEASeattle Mariners+10249%−10350.7%———
Spreadabout even
NYYNew York Yankees−0.2our margin————
SEASeattle Mariners+0.2our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.0
Over9.0our total————
Under9.0our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
New York Yankees by 13 runs: <1%New York Yankees by 12 runs: <1%New York Yankees by 11 runs: 1%New York Yankees by 10 runs: 1%New York Yankees by 9 runs: 1%New York Yankees by 8 runs: 2%New York Yankees by 7 runs: 2%New York Yankees by 6 runs: 3%New York Yankees by 5 runs: 4%New York Yankees by 4 runs: 6%New York Yankees by 3 runs: 7%New York Yankees by 2 runs: 10%New York Yankees by 1 run: 13%Seattle Mariners by 1 run: 15%Seattle Mariners by 2 runs: 9%Seattle Mariners by 3 runs: 7%Seattle Mariners by 4 runs: 5%Seattle Mariners by 5 runs: 4%Seattle Mariners by 6 runs: 3%Seattle Mariners by 7 runs: 2%Seattle Mariners by 8 runs: 1%Seattle Mariners by 9 runs: 1%Seattle Mariners by 10 runs: 1%Seattle Mariners by 11 runs: <1%Seattle Mariners by 12 runs: <1%Seattle Mariners by 13 runs: <1%
← NYY wins bySEA wins by →
New York Yankees wins by 2 or more38%
New York Yankees wins by 3 or more28%
Seattle Mariners wins by 2 or more34%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.0 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.558%
Total over 9.540%
Total over 11.525%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
NYYMax Fried SP · last 3 starts: 15.2 IP, 4.02 ERA, 11 Kstarted
SEALogan Gilbert SP · last 3 starts: 12.1 IP, 6.57 ERA, 12 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
NYY·SEA
Mar 30 at SEA
last game
Mar 30 vs NYY
0 days
days of rest
0 days
4
games in last 7 days
5
5th straight road game
home / road
6th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 4+ games
NYY·SEA
+0.24
rating (0 = average)
+0.13
3.5
runs / game
4.8
0.8
runs allowed / game
2.8
3−1
season record
3−2
0−0
home record
3−2
3−1
away record
0−0
L1
streak
W2
6−4
last 10
4−6
7.8
hits / game
7.2
0.75
home runs / game
1.60
2.5
walks drawn / game
4.8
9.8
batter strikeouts / game
11.0
9.5
pitcher strikeouts / game
11.4
0.50
errors / game
0.40

Rating Trend

NYY · SEA · 6 days
New York YankeesSeattle Mariners
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · SEA 3−7
Mar 30at SEASEA 2 − 1
Jul 10, 2025at NYYNYY 6 − 5
Jul 9, 2025at NYYNYY 9 − 6
Jul 8, 2025at NYYNYY 10 − 3
May 14, 2025at SEANYY 3 − 2
May 13, 2025at SEASEA 2 − 1
May 12, 2025at SEANYY 11 − 5
Sep 19, 2024at SEASEA 3 − 2
Sep 18, 2024at SEANYY 2 − 1
Sep 17, 2024at SEANYY 11 − 2

NYY · Last 10

6−4 · streak L1
Mar 30at SEA1 − 2L
Mar 28at SF3 − 1W
Mar 27at SF3 − 0W
Mar 25at SF7 − 0W
Oct 8, 2025vs TOR2 − 5L
Oct 7, 2025vs TOR9 − 6W
Oct 5, 2025at TOR7 − 13L
Oct 4, 2025at TOR1 − 10L
Oct 2, 2025vs BOS4 − 0W
Oct 1, 2025vs BOS4 − 3W

SEA · Last 10

4−6 · streak W2
Mar 30vs NYY2 − 1W
Mar 29vs CLE8 − 0W
Mar 28vs CLE5 − 6L
Mar 27vs CLE5 − 1W
Mar 26vs CLE4 − 6L
Oct 20, 2025at TOR3 − 4L
Oct 19, 2025at TOR2 − 6L
Oct 17, 2025vs TOR6 − 2W
Oct 16, 2025vs TOR2 − 8L
Oct 15, 2025vs TOR4 − 13L