bayesRatings

Reds at Marlins

MLB · Tuesday, Apr 7 · 5:40 PM CT · loanDepot park · Final CIN 6 – MIA 3
← MLB / Apr 7

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team12345678910THE
CIN0000000024650
MIA0002000001371
Team box
CIN·MIA
5
hits
7
0
home runs
0
6
walks
6
8
strikeouts
7
163
pitches thrown
151
0
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Matt McLainCIN2-5102
Nathaniel LoweCIN1-2001
Sal StewartCIN1-3001
Otto LopezMIA1-5001
Heriberto HernandezMIA1-3001
Jakob MarseeMIA2-4200
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Andrew AbbottCIN5.16222
Emilio Pagan (W)CIN1.00022
Sandy AlcantaraMIA8.13226
Calvin Faucher (L)MIA0.12321

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
MIA +4
CIN +4
12345678910
largest lead: MIA 2 · CIN 4lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was CIN 51%, MIA 49% · Updated Apr 7

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
CIN 4.7 – 4.3 MIA
Expected total
9.0
RedsThe matchupMarlins
−103Our fair odds+103
4.7Expected runs4.3
+0.05Power rating−0.07
2.8Runs / game4.9
3.0Allowed / game4.3
7.0Hits / game8.5
1.00Home runs / game0.80
3.7Walks drawn / game3.1
7−3Season record6−4
7−3Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
CIN chance · MIA chance
Our model fair50.7%49.3%
Kalshi45.7%58.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 5:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
CINCincinnati Reds−10351%+11945.7%———
MIAMiami Marlins+10349%−14258.7%———
Spreadabout even
CINCincinnati Reds−0.4our margin————
MIAMiami Marlins+0.4our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.0
Over9.0our total————
Under9.0our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Cincinnati Reds by 13 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 12 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 11 runs: 1%Cincinnati Reds by 10 runs: 1%Cincinnati Reds by 9 runs: 1%Cincinnati Reds by 8 runs: 2%Cincinnati Reds by 7 runs: 3%Cincinnati Reds by 6 runs: 3%Cincinnati Reds by 5 runs: 5%Cincinnati Reds by 4 runs: 6%Cincinnati Reds by 3 runs: 8%Cincinnati Reds by 2 runs: 10%Cincinnati Reds by 1 run: 11%Miami Marlins by 1 run: 17%Miami Marlins by 2 runs: 9%Miami Marlins by 3 runs: 7%Miami Marlins by 4 runs: 5%Miami Marlins by 5 runs: 4%Miami Marlins by 6 runs: 3%Miami Marlins by 7 runs: 2%Miami Marlins by 8 runs: 1%Miami Marlins by 9 runs: 1%Miami Marlins by 10 runs: 1%Miami Marlins by 11 runs: <1%Miami Marlins by 12 runs: <1%Miami Marlins by 13 runs: <1%
← CIN wins byMIA wins by →
Cincinnati Reds wins by 2 or more40%
Cincinnati Reds wins by 3 or more30%
Miami Marlins wins by 2 or more32%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.0 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.558%
Total over 9.540%
Total over 11.525%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
CINAndrew Abbott SP · last 3 starts: 17.0 IP, 3.71 ERA, 13 Kstarted
MIASandy Alcantara SP · last 3 starts: 23.0 IP, 0.78 ERA, 15 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
CIN·MIA
Apr 6 at MIA
last game
Apr 6 vs CIN
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
5th straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 10+ games
CIN·MIA
+0.05
rating (0 = average)
−0.07
2.8
runs / game
4.9
3.0
runs allowed / game
4.3
7−3
season record
6−4
3−3
home record
5−2
4−0
away record
1−2
W4
streak
L1
7−3
last 10
6−4
7.0
hits / game
8.5
1.00
home runs / game
0.80
3.7
walks drawn / game
3.1
9.5
batter strikeouts / game
7.7
9.4
pitcher strikeouts / game
9.4
0.00
errors / game
0.80

Rating Trend

CIN · MIA · 13 days
Cincinnati RedsMiami Marlins
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · MIA 5−5
Apr 6at MIACIN 2 − 0
Jul 10, 2025at CINCIN 6 − 0
Jul 9, 2025at CINCIN 7 − 2
Jul 8, 2025at CINMIA 12 − 2
Jul 7, 2025at CINMIA 5 − 1
Apr 23, 2025at MIACIN 5 − 2
Apr 22, 2025at MIAMIA 4 − 3
Apr 21, 2025at MIAMIA 6 − 3
Aug 8, 2024at MIACIN 10 − 4
Aug 7, 2024at MIAMIA 6 − 4

CIN · Last 10

7−3 · streak W4
Apr 6at MIA2 − 0W
Apr 5at TEX2 − 1W
Apr 4at TEX2 − 0W
Apr 3at TEX5 − 3W
Apr 1vs PIT3 − 8L
Mar 31vs PIT3 − 8L
Mar 30vs PIT2 − 0W
Mar 29vs BOS3 − 2W
Mar 28vs BOS6 − 5W
Mar 26vs BOS0 − 3L

MIA · Last 10

6−4 · streak L1
Apr 6vs CIN0 − 2L
Apr 5at NYY7 − 6W
Apr 4at NYY7 − 9L
Apr 3at NYY2 − 8L
Apr 1vs CHW10 − 0W
Mar 31vs CHW9 − 2W
Mar 30vs CHW4 − 9L
Mar 29vs COL4 − 3W
Mar 28vs COL4 − 3W
Mar 27vs COL2 − 1W