bayesRatings

Reds at Rangers

MLB · Friday, Apr 3 · 3:05 PM CT · Globe Life Field · Final CIN 5 – TEX 3
← MLB / Apr 3

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
CIN0200010025100
TEX020000100380
Team box
CIN·TEX
10
hits
8
3
home runs
0
0
walks
2
11
strikeouts
9
139
pitches thrown
140
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Tyler StephensonCIN2-4112
Spencer SteerCIN2-4212
Elly De La CruzCIN1-4111
Danny JansenTEX1-4002
Wyatt LangfordTEX2-4001
Eugenio SuarezCIN2-4100
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Brady SingerCIN5.06215
Tony Santillan (W)CIN1.00000
Emilio Pagan (S)CIN1.00001
MacKenzie GoreTEX6.06309
Chris Martin (L)TEX1.02200

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
TEX +3
CIN +3
123456789
largest lead: TEX 0 · CIN 2lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was CIN 46%, TEX 54% · Updated Apr 3

Expected margin
TEX by 0.5
Expected score
TEX 4.2 – 3.8 CIN
Expected total
8.0
RedsThe matchupRangers
+116Our fair odds−116
3.8Expected runs4.2
+0.01Power rating+0.07
2.8Runs / game5.3
4.3Allowed / game4.5
6.0Hits / game9.5
1.00Home runs / game1.50
5.0Walks drawn / game2.8
3−3Season record4−2
4−6Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
CIN chance · TEX chance
Our model fair46.4%53.6%
Kalshi41.7%62.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 3:05 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
CINCincinnati Reds+11646%+14041.7%———
TEXTexas Rangers−11654%−16862.7%———
SpreadTEX by 0.5
CINCincinnati Reds+0.5our margin————
TEXTexas Rangers−0.5our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.0
Over8.0our total————
Under8.0our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Texas Rangers by 0.5 expected
Cincinnati Reds by 12 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 11 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 10 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 9 runs: 1%Cincinnati Reds by 8 runs: 1%Cincinnati Reds by 7 runs: 1%Cincinnati Reds by 6 runs: 2%Cincinnati Reds by 5 runs: 3%Cincinnati Reds by 4 runs: 5%Cincinnati Reds by 3 runs: 7%Cincinnati Reds by 2 runs: 10%Cincinnati Reds by 1 run: 16%Texas Rangers by 1 run: 14%Texas Rangers by 2 runs: 11%Texas Rangers by 3 runs: 8%Texas Rangers by 4 runs: 6%Texas Rangers by 5 runs: 5%Texas Rangers by 6 runs: 3%Texas Rangers by 7 runs: 2%Texas Rangers by 8 runs: 2%Texas Rangers by 9 runs: 1%Texas Rangers by 10 runs: 1%Texas Rangers by 11 runs: <1%Texas Rangers by 12 runs: <1%
← CIN wins byTEX wins by →
Texas Rangers wins by 2 or more40%
Texas Rangers wins by 3 or more29%
Cincinnati Reds wins by 2 or more30%
Decided by one run30%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.0 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 8%4 runs: 6%5 runs: 12%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 13%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 4%14 runs: 2%15 runs: 2%16 runs: 1%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.561%
Total over 8.541%
Total over 10.525%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
CINBrady Singer SP · last 3 starts: 12.2 IP, 7.11 ERA, 13 Kstarted
TEXMacKenzie Gore SP · last 3 starts: 12.2 IP, 4.26 ERA, 15 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
CIN·TEX
Apr 1 vs PIT
last game
Apr 1 at BAL
1 day
days of rest
1 day
5
games in last 7 days
5
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 6+ games
CIN·TEX
+0.01
rating (0 = average)
+0.07
2.8
runs / game
5.3
4.3
runs allowed / game
4.5
3−3
season record
4−2
3−3
home record
0−0
0−0
away record
4−2
L2
streak
L1
4−6
last 10
5−5
6.0
hits / game
9.5
1.00
home runs / game
1.50
5.0
walks drawn / game
2.8
10.2
batter strikeouts / game
10.2
9.5
pitcher strikeouts / game
10.0
0.00
errors / game
0.33

Rating Trend

CIN · TEX · 9 days
Cincinnati RedsTexas Rangers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 9 meetings · TEX 4−5
Apr 2, 2025at CINTEX 1 − 0
Apr 1, 2025at CINTEX 1 − 0
Mar 31, 2025at CINCIN 14 − 3
Apr 28, 2024at TEXTEX 4 − 3
Apr 27, 2024at TEXCIN 8 − 4
Apr 26, 2024at TEXTEX 2 − 1
Apr 26, 2023at CINCIN 5 − 3
Apr 25, 2023at CINCIN 7 − 6
Apr 24, 2023at CINCIN 7 − 6

CIN · Last 10

4−6 · streak L2
Apr 1vs PIT3 − 8L
Mar 31vs PIT3 − 8L
Mar 30vs PIT2 − 0W
Mar 29vs BOS3 − 2W
Mar 28vs BOS6 − 5W
Mar 26vs BOS0 − 3L
Oct 1, 2025at LAD4 − 8L
Sep 30, 2025at LAD5 − 10L
Sep 28, 2025at MIL2 − 4L
Sep 27, 2025at MIL7 − 4W

TEX · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
Apr 1at BAL3 − 8L
Mar 31at BAL8 − 5W
Mar 30at BAL5 − 2W
Mar 29at PHI8 − 3W
Mar 28at PHI5 − 4W
Mar 26at PHI3 − 5L
Sep 28, 2025at CLE8 − 9L
Sep 27, 2025at CLE2 − 3L
Sep 26, 2025at CLE7 − 3W
Sep 25, 2025vs MIN0 − 4L