bayesRatings

Rangers at Orioles

MLB · Wednesday, Apr 1 · 11:35 AM CT · Oriole Park at Camden Yards · Final TEX 3 – BAL 8
← MLB / Apr 1

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
TEX000200010380
BAL022031008120
Team box
TEX·BAL
8
hits
12
1
home runs
2
2
walks
6
5
strikeouts
7
163
pitches thrown
133
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Dylan BeaversBAL3-5311
Samuel BasalloBAL2-5111
Taylor WardBAL2-4002
Leody TaverasBAL2-2102
Corey SeagerTEX1-4111
Jeremiah JacksonBAL1-3002
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Nathan Eovaldi (L)TEX4.08635
Trevor Rogers (W)BAL6.06213
Albert Suarez (S)BAL3.02112

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
BAL +6
TEX +6
123456789
largest lead: BAL 6 · TEX 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was TEX 51%, BAL 49% · Updated Apr 1

Expected margin
TEX by 0.8
Expected score
TEX 4.7 – 3.9 BAL
Expected total
8.5
RangersThe matchupOrioles
−105Our fair odds+105
4.7Expected runs3.9
+0.08Power rating−0.06
5.8Runs / game3.6
3.8Allowed / game4.8
9.8Hits / game7.6
1.60Home runs / game0.60
3.0Walks drawn / game3.2
4−1Season record2−3
6−4Last 103−7

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
TEX chance · BAL chance
Our model fair51.3%48.7%
Kalshi50.7%53.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 11:35 AM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
TEXTexas Rangers−10551%−10350.7%———
BALBaltimore Orioles+10549%−11653.7%———
SpreadTEX by 0.8
TEXTexas Rangers−0.8our margin————
BALBaltimore Orioles+0.8our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.5
Over8.5our total————
Under8.5our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Texas Rangers by 0.8 expected
Texas Rangers by 14 runs: <1%Texas Rangers by 13 runs: <1%Texas Rangers by 12 runs: <1%Texas Rangers by 11 runs: 1%Texas Rangers by 10 runs: 1%Texas Rangers by 9 runs: 1%Texas Rangers by 8 runs: 2%Texas Rangers by 7 runs: 3%Texas Rangers by 6 runs: 4%Texas Rangers by 5 runs: 5%Texas Rangers by 4 runs: 6%Texas Rangers by 3 runs: 8%Texas Rangers by 2 runs: 11%Texas Rangers by 1 run: 11%Baltimore Orioles by 1 run: 17%Baltimore Orioles by 2 runs: 9%Baltimore Orioles by 3 runs: 6%Baltimore Orioles by 4 runs: 4%Baltimore Orioles by 5 runs: 3%Baltimore Orioles by 6 runs: 2%Baltimore Orioles by 7 runs: 1%Baltimore Orioles by 8 runs: 1%Baltimore Orioles by 9 runs: 1%Baltimore Orioles by 10 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 11 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 12 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 13 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 14 runs: <1%
← TEX wins byBAL wins by →
Texas Rangers wins by 2 or more43%
Texas Rangers wins by 3 or more32%
Baltimore Orioles wins by 2 or more28%
Decided by one run29%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.5 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 7%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.565%
Total over 8.546%
Total over 10.529%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
TEXNathan Eovaldi SP · last 3 starts: 18.2 IP, 3.86 ERA, 22 Kstarted
BALTrevor Rogers SP · last 3 starts: 16.0 IP, 3.38 ERA, 15 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
TEX·BAL
Mar 31 at BAL
last game
Mar 31 vs TEX
0 days
days of rest
0 days
5
games in last 7 days
5
6th straight road game
home / road
6th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 5+ games
TEX·BAL
+0.08
rating (0 = average)
−0.06
5.8
runs / game
3.6
3.8
runs allowed / game
4.8
4−1
season record
2−3
0−0
home record
2−3
4−1
away record
0−0
W4
streak
L2
6−4
last 10
3−7
9.8
hits / game
7.6
1.60
home runs / game
0.60
3.0
walks drawn / game
3.2
11.2
batter strikeouts / game
10.2
10.6
pitcher strikeouts / game
10.6
0.40
errors / game
0.80

Rating Trend

TEX · BAL · 7 days
Texas RangersBaltimore Orioles
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · BAL 3−7
Mar 31at BALTEX 8 − 5
Mar 30at BALTEX 5 − 2
Jul 2, 2025at TEXTEX 6 − 0
Jul 1, 2025at TEXTEX 10 − 2
Jun 30, 2025at TEXBAL 10 − 6
Jun 25, 2025at BALTEX 7 − 0
Jun 24, 2025at BALTEX 6 − 5
Jun 23, 2025at BALBAL 6 − 0
Jul 21, 2024at TEXTEX 3 − 2
Jul 20, 2024at TEXBAL 8 − 4

TEX · Last 10

6−4 · streak W4
Mar 31at BAL8 − 5W
Mar 30at BAL5 − 2W
Mar 29at PHI8 − 3W
Mar 28at PHI5 − 4W
Mar 26at PHI3 − 5L
Sep 28, 2025at CLE8 − 9L
Sep 27, 2025at CLE2 − 3L
Sep 26, 2025at CLE7 − 3W
Sep 25, 2025vs MIN0 − 4L
Sep 24, 2025vs MIN4 − 2W

BAL · Last 10

3−7 · streak L2
Mar 31vs TEX5 − 8L
Mar 30vs TEX2 − 5L
Mar 29vs MIN8 − 6W
Mar 28vs MIN1 − 4L
Mar 26vs MIN2 − 1W
Sep 28, 2025at NYY2 − 3L
Sep 27, 2025at NYY1 − 6L
Sep 26, 2025at NYY4 − 8L
Sep 25, 2025vs TB6 − 5W
Sep 24, 2025vs TB2 − 6L