bayesRatings

Pirates at Reds

MLB · Wednesday, Apr 1 · 11:40 AM CT · Great American Ball Park · Final PIT 8 – CIN 3
← MLB / Apr 1

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
PIT300001004890
CIN000102000350
Team box
PIT·CIN
9
hits
5
2
home runs
1
5
walks
3
10
strikeouts
9
139
pitches thrown
166
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Oneil CruzPIT2-5213
Bryan ReynoldsPIT2-5212
Eugenio SuarezCIN1-2112
Nick GonzalesPIT2-5102
Nathaniel LoweCIN1-2001
Spencer HorwitzPIT1-3101
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Paul Skenes (W)PIT5.03125
Andrew Abbott (L)CIN5.25435

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CIN +5
PIT +5
123456789
largest lead: CIN 0 · PIT 5lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was PIT 45%, CIN 55% · Updated Apr 1

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
CIN 4.0 – 3.7 PIT
Expected total
7.7
PiratesThe matchupReds
+120Our fair odds−120
3.7Expected runs4.0
−0.07Power rating+0.03
4.2Runs / game2.8
4.6Allowed / game3.6
8.2Hits / game6.2
1.60Home runs / game1.00
4.0Walks drawn / game5.4
2−3Season record3−2
5−5Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
PIT chance · CIN chance
Our model fair45.4%54.6%
Kalshi59.7%45.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 11:40 AM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
PITPittsburgh Pirates+12045%−14859.7%———
CINCincinnati Reds−12055%+11945.7%———
Spreadabout even
PITPittsburgh Pirates+0.3our margin————
CINCincinnati Reds−0.3our margin————
Totalwe expect 7.7
Over7.7our total————
Under7.7our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Pittsburgh Pirates by 12 runs: <1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 11 runs: <1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 10 runs: <1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 9 runs: 1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 8 runs: 1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 7 runs: 2%Pittsburgh Pirates by 6 runs: 2%Pittsburgh Pirates by 5 runs: 4%Pittsburgh Pirates by 4 runs: 5%Pittsburgh Pirates by 3 runs: 7%Pittsburgh Pirates by 2 runs: 10%Pittsburgh Pirates by 1 run: 13%Cincinnati Reds by 1 run: 18%Cincinnati Reds by 2 runs: 11%Cincinnati Reds by 3 runs: 8%Cincinnati Reds by 4 runs: 6%Cincinnati Reds by 5 runs: 4%Cincinnati Reds by 6 runs: 3%Cincinnati Reds by 7 runs: 2%Cincinnati Reds by 8 runs: 1%Cincinnati Reds by 9 runs: 1%Cincinnati Reds by 10 runs: 1%Cincinnati Reds by 11 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 12 runs: <1%
← PIT wins byCIN wins by →
Cincinnati Reds wins by 2 or more37%
Cincinnati Reds wins by 3 or more26%
Pittsburgh Pirates wins by 2 or more32%
Decided by one run31%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

7.7 expected
1 runs: 3%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 9%4 runs: 6%5 runs: 13%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 13%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 4%14 runs: 2%15 runs: 2%16 runs: 1%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: <1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 5.567%
Total over 7.546%
Total over 9.528%
Total from 6 to 939%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
PITPaul Skenes SP · last 3 starts: 10.1 IP, 6.97 ERA, 14 Kstarted
CINAndrew Abbott SP · last 3 starts: 16.0 IP, 1.69 ERA, 10 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
PIT·CIN
Mar 31 at CIN
last game
Mar 31 vs PIT
0 days
days of rest
0 days
5
games in last 7 days
5
6th straight road game
home / road
6th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 5+ games
PIT·CIN
−0.07
rating (0 = average)
+0.03
4.2
runs / game
2.8
4.6
runs allowed / game
3.6
2−3
season record
3−2
0−0
home record
3−2
2−3
away record
0−0
W1
streak
L1
5−5
last 10
5−5
8.2
hits / game
6.2
1.60
home runs / game
1.00
4.0
walks drawn / game
5.4
9.8
batter strikeouts / game
10.4
10.6
pitcher strikeouts / game
9.4
0.60
errors / game
0.00

Rating Trend

PIT · CIN · 7 days
Pittsburgh PiratesCincinnati Reds
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · CIN 4−6
Mar 31at CINPIT 8 − 3
Mar 30at CINCIN 2 − 0
Sep 25, 2025at CINCIN 2 − 1
Sep 24, 2025at CINPIT 4 − 3
Sep 23, 2025at CINPIT 4 − 2
Aug 10, 2025at PITCIN 14 − 8
Aug 9, 2025at PITCIN 2 − 1
Aug 8, 2025at PITPIT 3 − 2
Aug 7, 2025at PITPIT 7 − 0
May 21, 2025at PITPIT 3 − 1

PIT · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
Mar 31at CIN8 − 3W
Mar 30at CIN0 − 2L
Mar 29at NYM4 − 3W
Mar 28at NYM2 − 4L
Mar 26at NYM7 − 11L
Sep 28, 2025at ATL1 − 4L
Sep 27, 2025at ATL3 − 1W
Sep 26, 2025at ATL9 − 3W
Sep 25, 2025at CIN1 − 2L
Sep 24, 2025at CIN4 − 3W

CIN · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
Mar 31vs PIT3 − 8L
Mar 30vs PIT2 − 0W
Mar 29vs BOS3 − 2W
Mar 28vs BOS6 − 5W
Mar 26vs BOS0 − 3L
Oct 1, 2025at LAD4 − 8L
Sep 30, 2025at LAD5 − 10L
Sep 28, 2025at MIL2 − 4L
Sep 27, 2025at MIL7 − 4W
Sep 26, 2025at MIL3 − 1W