bayesRatings

Pirates at Reds

MLB · Tuesday, Mar 31 · 5:40 PM CT · Great American Ball Park · Final PIT 8 – CIN 3
← MLB / Mar 31

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
PIT050100002881
CIN001000020360
Team box
PIT·CIN
8
hits
6
4
home runs
2
3
walks
8
7
strikeouts
12
172
pitches thrown
149
1
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Oneil CruzPIT3-4323
Ryan O'HearnPIT1-3113
Elly De La CruzCIN1-5111
Sal StewartCIN1-4111
Bryan ReynoldsPIT1-4111
Nick GonzalesPIT2-4200
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Bubba ChandlerPIT4.10066
Yohan Ramirez (W)PIT0.20002
Brandon Williamson (L)CIN4.26623

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CIN +5
PIT +5
123456789
largest lead: CIN 0 · PIT 5lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was PIT 45%, CIN 55% · Updated Mar 31

Expected margin
CIN by 0.5
Expected score
CIN 4.0 – 3.5 PIT
Expected total
7.6
PiratesThe matchupReds
+124Our fair odds−124
3.5Expected runs4.0
−0.09Power rating+0.04
3.2Runs / game2.8
5.0Allowed / game2.5
8.2Hits / game6.2
1.00Home runs / game0.75
4.2Walks drawn / game4.8
1−3Season record3−1
5−5Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
PIT chance · CIN chance
Our model fair44.7%55.3%
Kalshi54.7%49.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 5:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
PITPittsburgh Pirates+12445%−12154.7%———
CINCincinnati Reds−12455%+10149.7%———
SpreadCIN by 0.5
PITPittsburgh Pirates+0.5our margin————
CINCincinnati Reds−0.5our margin————
Totalwe expect 7.6
Over7.6our total————
Under7.6our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Cincinnati Reds by 0.5 expected
Pittsburgh Pirates by 12 runs: <1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 11 runs: <1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 10 runs: <1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 9 runs: 1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 8 runs: 1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 7 runs: 1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 6 runs: 2%Pittsburgh Pirates by 5 runs: 3%Pittsburgh Pirates by 4 runs: 5%Pittsburgh Pirates by 3 runs: 7%Pittsburgh Pirates by 2 runs: 10%Pittsburgh Pirates by 1 run: 15%Cincinnati Reds by 1 run: 16%Cincinnati Reds by 2 runs: 11%Cincinnati Reds by 3 runs: 8%Cincinnati Reds by 4 runs: 6%Cincinnati Reds by 5 runs: 4%Cincinnati Reds by 6 runs: 3%Cincinnati Reds by 7 runs: 2%Cincinnati Reds by 8 runs: 1%Cincinnati Reds by 9 runs: 1%Cincinnati Reds by 10 runs: 1%Cincinnati Reds by 11 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 12 runs: <1%
← PIT wins byCIN wins by →
Cincinnati Reds wins by 2 or more39%
Cincinnati Reds wins by 3 or more28%
Pittsburgh Pirates wins by 2 or more30%
Decided by one run31%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

7.6 expected
1 runs: 3%2 runs: 3%3 runs: 9%4 runs: 6%5 runs: 13%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 13%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 6%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 4%14 runs: 2%15 runs: 2%16 runs: 1%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: <1%20 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 5.566%
Total over 7.545%
Total over 9.527%
Total from 6 to 939%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
PITBubba Chandler SP · last 3 starts: 16.2 IP, 1.08 ERA, 19 Kstarted
CINBrandon Williamson SP · last 3 starts: 9.2 IP, 4.66 ERA, 11 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
PIT·CIN
Mar 30 at CIN
last game
Mar 30 vs PIT
0 days
days of rest
0 days
4
games in last 7 days
4
5th straight road game
home / road
5th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 4+ games
PIT·CIN
−0.09
rating (0 = average)
+0.04
3.2
runs / game
2.8
5.0
runs allowed / game
2.5
1−3
season record
3−1
0−0
home record
3−1
1−3
away record
0−0
L1
streak
W3
5−5
last 10
6−4
8.2
hits / game
6.2
1.00
home runs / game
0.75
4.2
walks drawn / game
4.8
10.5
batter strikeouts / game
10.0
10.2
pitcher strikeouts / game
10.0
0.50
errors / game
0.00

Rating Trend

PIT · CIN · 6 days
Pittsburgh PiratesCincinnati Reds
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · CIN 4−6
Mar 30at CINCIN 2 − 0
Sep 25, 2025at CINCIN 2 − 1
Sep 24, 2025at CINPIT 4 − 3
Sep 23, 2025at CINPIT 4 − 2
Aug 10, 2025at PITCIN 14 − 8
Aug 9, 2025at PITCIN 2 − 1
Aug 8, 2025at PITPIT 3 − 2
Aug 7, 2025at PITPIT 7 − 0
May 21, 2025at PITPIT 3 − 1
May 20, 2025at PITPIT 1 − 0

PIT · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
Mar 30at CIN0 − 2L
Mar 29at NYM4 − 3W
Mar 28at NYM2 − 4L
Mar 26at NYM7 − 11L
Sep 28, 2025at ATL1 − 4L
Sep 27, 2025at ATL3 − 1W
Sep 26, 2025at ATL9 − 3W
Sep 25, 2025at CIN1 − 2L
Sep 24, 2025at CIN4 − 3W
Sep 23, 2025at CIN4 − 2W

CIN · Last 10

6−4 · streak W3
Mar 30vs PIT2 − 0W
Mar 29vs BOS3 − 2W
Mar 28vs BOS6 − 5W
Mar 26vs BOS0 − 3L
Oct 1, 2025at LAD4 − 8L
Sep 30, 2025at LAD5 − 10L
Sep 28, 2025at MIL2 − 4L
Sep 27, 2025at MIL7 − 4W
Sep 26, 2025at MIL3 − 1W
Sep 25, 2025vs PIT2 − 1W