bayesRatings

Pirates at Reds

MLB · Monday, Mar 30 · 5:40 PM CT · Great American Ball Park · Final PIT 0 – CIN 2
← MLB / Mar 30

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
PIT000000000040
CIN00020000240
Team box
PIT·CIN
4
hits
4
0
home runs
0
5
walks
5
11
strikeouts
7
118
pitches thrown
151
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Will BensonCIN1-3001
Eugenio SuarezCIN1-4100
Spencer SteerCIN0-2001
Elly De La CruzCIN1-3000
Sal StewartCIN1-2100
Ryan O'HearnPIT1-2000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Braxton Ashcraft (L)PIT6.04243
Chase Burns (W)CIN5.01037
Connor Phillips (S)CIN1.00021

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CIN +3
PIT +3
123456789
largest lead: CIN 2 · PIT 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was PIT 45%, CIN 55% · Updated Mar 30

Expected margin
CIN by 0.5
Expected score
CIN 4.1 – 3.6 PIT
Expected total
7.7
PiratesThe matchupReds
+123Our fair odds−123
3.6Expected runs4.1
−0.08Power rating+0.03
4.3Runs / game3.0
6.0Allowed / game3.3
9.7Hits / game7.0
1.33Home runs / game1.00
4.0Walks drawn / game4.7
1−2Season record2−1
6−4Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
PIT chance · CIN chance
Our model fair44.9%55.1%
Kalshi46.7%57.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 5:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
PITPittsburgh Pirates+12345%+11446.7%———
CINCincinnati Reds−12355%−13757.7%———
SpreadCIN by 0.5
PITPittsburgh Pirates+0.5our margin————
CINCincinnati Reds−0.5our margin————
Totalwe expect 7.7
Over7.7our total————
Under7.7our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Cincinnati Reds by 0.5 expected
Pittsburgh Pirates by 12 runs: <1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 11 runs: <1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 10 runs: <1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 9 runs: 1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 8 runs: 1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 7 runs: 1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 6 runs: 2%Pittsburgh Pirates by 5 runs: 3%Pittsburgh Pirates by 4 runs: 5%Pittsburgh Pirates by 3 runs: 7%Pittsburgh Pirates by 2 runs: 10%Pittsburgh Pirates by 1 run: 15%Cincinnati Reds by 1 run: 16%Cincinnati Reds by 2 runs: 11%Cincinnati Reds by 3 runs: 8%Cincinnati Reds by 4 runs: 6%Cincinnati Reds by 5 runs: 4%Cincinnati Reds by 6 runs: 3%Cincinnati Reds by 7 runs: 2%Cincinnati Reds by 8 runs: 1%Cincinnati Reds by 9 runs: 1%Cincinnati Reds by 10 runs: 1%Cincinnati Reds by 11 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 12 runs: <1%
← PIT wins byCIN wins by →
Cincinnati Reds wins by 2 or more39%
Cincinnati Reds wins by 3 or more28%
Pittsburgh Pirates wins by 2 or more30%
Decided by one run31%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

7.7 expected
1 runs: 3%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 9%4 runs: 6%5 runs: 13%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 13%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 4%14 runs: 2%15 runs: 2%16 runs: 1%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: <1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 5.567%
Total over 7.546%
Total over 9.528%
Total from 6 to 939%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
PITBraxton Ashcraft SP · last 3 starts: 11.1 IP, 3.97 ERA, 13 Kstarted
CINChase Burns SP · last 3 starts: 12.2 IP, 2.84 ERA, 22 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
PIT·CIN
Mar 29 at NYM
last game
Mar 29 vs BOS
0 days
days of rest
0 days
3
games in last 7 days
3
4th straight road game
home / road
4th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 3+ games
PIT·CIN
−0.08
rating (0 = average)
+0.03
4.3
runs / game
3.0
6.0
runs allowed / game
3.3
1−2
season record
2−1
0−0
home record
2−1
1−2
away record
0−0
W1
streak
W2
6−4
last 10
5−5
9.7
hits / game
7.0
1.33
home runs / game
1.00
4.0
walks drawn / game
4.7
10.3
batter strikeouts / game
11.0
11.3
pitcher strikeouts / game
9.7
0.67
errors / game
0.00

Rating Trend

PIT · CIN · 5 days
Pittsburgh PiratesCincinnati Reds
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · CIN 4−6
Sep 25, 2025at CINCIN 2 − 1
Sep 24, 2025at CINPIT 4 − 3
Sep 23, 2025at CINPIT 4 − 2
Aug 10, 2025at PITCIN 14 − 8
Aug 9, 2025at PITCIN 2 − 1
Aug 8, 2025at PITPIT 3 − 2
Aug 7, 2025at PITPIT 7 − 0
May 21, 2025at PITPIT 3 − 1
May 20, 2025at PITPIT 1 − 0
May 19, 2025at PITCIN 7 − 1

PIT · Last 10

6−4 · streak W1
Mar 29at NYM4 − 3W
Mar 28at NYM2 − 4L
Mar 26at NYM7 − 11L
Sep 28, 2025at ATL1 − 4L
Sep 27, 2025at ATL3 − 1W
Sep 26, 2025at ATL9 − 3W
Sep 25, 2025at CIN1 − 2L
Sep 24, 2025at CIN4 − 3W
Sep 23, 2025at CIN4 − 2W
Sep 21, 2025vs ATH11 − 0W

CIN · Last 10

5−5 · streak W2
Mar 29vs BOS3 − 2W
Mar 28vs BOS6 − 5W
Mar 26vs BOS0 − 3L
Oct 1, 2025at LAD4 − 8L
Sep 30, 2025at LAD5 − 10L
Sep 28, 2025at MIL2 − 4L
Sep 27, 2025at MIL7 − 4W
Sep 26, 2025at MIL3 − 1W
Sep 25, 2025vs PIT2 − 1W
Sep 24, 2025vs PIT3 − 4L