bayesRatings

Reds at Marlins

MLB · Monday, Apr 6 · 5:40 PM CT · loanDepot park · Final CIN 2 – MIA 0
← MLB / Apr 6

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
CIN000100010270
MIA000000000031
Team box
CIN·MIA
7
hits
3
1
home runs
0
2
walks
2
4
strikeouts
6
127
pitches thrown
110
0
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Tyler StephensonCIN1-3111
TJ FriedlCIN2-4000
Elly De La CruzCIN2-4100
Sal StewartCIN1-4001
Otto LopezMIA2-4000
Will BensonCIN1-4000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Brandon Williamson (W)CIN6.23014
Emilio Pagan (S)CIN1.00000
Janson Junk (L)MIA7.17213

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
MIA +3
CIN +3
123456789
largest lead: MIA 0 · CIN 2lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was CIN 50%, MIA 50% · Updated Apr 6

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
CIN 4.8 – 4.3 MIA
Expected total
9.1
RedsThe matchupMarlins
−101Our fair odds+101
4.8Expected runs4.3
+0.04Power rating−0.06
2.9Runs / game5.4
3.3Allowed / game4.6
7.0Hits / game9.1
1.00Home runs / game0.89
3.9Walks drawn / game3.2
6−3Season record6−3
6−4Last 107−3

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
CIN chance · MIA chance
Our model fair50.2%49.8%
Kalshi45.7%58.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 5:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
CINCincinnati Reds−10150%+11945.7%———
MIAMiami Marlins+10150%−14258.7%———
Spreadabout even
CINCincinnati Reds−0.4our margin————
MIAMiami Marlins+0.4our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.1
Over9.1our total————
Under9.1our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Cincinnati Reds by 14 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 13 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 12 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 11 runs: 1%Cincinnati Reds by 10 runs: 1%Cincinnati Reds by 9 runs: 1%Cincinnati Reds by 8 runs: 2%Cincinnati Reds by 7 runs: 3%Cincinnati Reds by 6 runs: 3%Cincinnati Reds by 5 runs: 5%Cincinnati Reds by 4 runs: 6%Cincinnati Reds by 3 runs: 8%Cincinnati Reds by 2 runs: 10%Cincinnati Reds by 1 run: 11%Miami Marlins by 1 run: 17%Miami Marlins by 2 runs: 9%Miami Marlins by 3 runs: 7%Miami Marlins by 4 runs: 5%Miami Marlins by 5 runs: 4%Miami Marlins by 6 runs: 3%Miami Marlins by 7 runs: 2%Miami Marlins by 8 runs: 1%Miami Marlins by 9 runs: 1%Miami Marlins by 10 runs: 1%Miami Marlins by 11 runs: <1%Miami Marlins by 12 runs: <1%Miami Marlins by 13 runs: <1%Miami Marlins by 14 runs: <1%
← CIN wins byMIA wins by →
Cincinnati Reds wins by 2 or more40%
Cincinnati Reds wins by 3 or more30%
Miami Marlins wins by 2 or more32%
Decided by one run27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.1 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.559%
Total over 9.541%
Total over 11.526%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
CINBrandon Williamson SP · last 3 starts: 11.0 IP, 8.18 ERA, 9 Kstarted
MIAJanson Junk SP · last 3 starts: 16.0 IP, 2.25 ERA, 14 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
CIN·MIA
Apr 5 at TEX
last game
Apr 5 at NYY
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
4th straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 9+ games
CIN·MIA
+0.04
rating (0 = average)
−0.06
2.9
runs / game
5.4
3.3
runs allowed / game
4.6
6−3
season record
6−3
3−3
home record
5−1
3−0
away record
1−2
W3
streak
W1
6−4
last 10
7−3
7.0
hits / game
9.1
1.00
home runs / game
0.89
3.9
walks drawn / game
3.2
10.1
batter strikeouts / game
7.9
9.8
pitcher strikeouts / game
10.0
0.00
errors / game
0.78

Rating Trend

CIN · MIA · 12 days
Cincinnati RedsMiami Marlins
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · MIA 5−5
Jul 10, 2025at CINCIN 6 − 0
Jul 9, 2025at CINCIN 7 − 2
Jul 8, 2025at CINMIA 12 − 2
Jul 7, 2025at CINMIA 5 − 1
Apr 23, 2025at MIACIN 5 − 2
Apr 22, 2025at MIAMIA 4 − 3
Apr 21, 2025at MIAMIA 6 − 3
Aug 8, 2024at MIACIN 10 − 4
Aug 7, 2024at MIAMIA 6 − 4
Aug 6, 2024at MIACIN 8 − 2

CIN · Last 10

6−4 · streak W3
Apr 5at TEX2 − 1W
Apr 4at TEX2 − 0W
Apr 3at TEX5 − 3W
Apr 1vs PIT3 − 8L
Mar 31vs PIT3 − 8L
Mar 30vs PIT2 − 0W
Mar 29vs BOS3 − 2W
Mar 28vs BOS6 − 5W
Mar 26vs BOS0 − 3L
Oct 1, 2025at LAD4 − 8L

MIA · Last 10

7−3 · streak W1
Apr 5at NYY7 − 6W
Apr 4at NYY7 − 9L
Apr 3at NYY2 − 8L
Apr 1vs CHW10 − 0W
Mar 31vs CHW9 − 2W
Mar 30vs CHW4 − 9L
Mar 29vs COL4 − 3W
Mar 28vs COL4 − 3W
Mar 27vs COL2 − 1W
Sep 28, 2025vs NYM4 − 0W