bayesRatings

Reds at Rangers

MLB · Sunday, Apr 5 · 1:35 PM CT · Globe Life Field · Final CIN 2 – TEX 1
← MLB / Apr 5

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
CIN000100010290
TEX000000100160
Team box
CIN·TEX
9
hits
6
0
home runs
1
4
walks
3
12
strikeouts
15
155
pitches thrown
153
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Joc PedersonTEX1-3111
Elly De La CruzCIN2-5101
Eugenio SuarezCIN1-3001
Will BensonCIN2-2000
Brandon NimmoTEX2-4000
Ke'Bryan HayesCIN1-4000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Chase BurnsCIN6.05119
Sam Moll (W)CIN0.10001
Brock Burke (S)CIN1.00003
Jack LeiterTEX5.04119
Robert Garcia (L)TEX0.11120

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
TEX +3
CIN +3
123456789
largest lead: TEX 0 · CIN 1lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was CIN 47%, TEX 53% · Updated Apr 5

Expected margin
TEX by 0.5
Expected score
TEX 4.2 – 3.8 CIN
Expected total
8.0
RedsThe matchupRangers
+111Our fair odds−111
3.8Expected runs4.2
+0.03Power rating+0.05
3.0Runs / game4.4
3.6Allowed / game4.2
6.8Hits / game8.6
1.12Home runs / game1.12
3.9Walks drawn / game3.0
5−3Season record4−4
5−5Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
CIN chance · TEX chance
Our model fair47.4%52.6%
Kalshi49.7%55.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 1:35 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
CINCincinnati Reds+11147%+10149.7%———
TEXTexas Rangers−11153%−12655.7%———
SpreadTEX by 0.5
CINCincinnati Reds+0.5our margin————
TEXTexas Rangers−0.5our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.0
Over8.0our total————
Under8.0our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Texas Rangers by 0.5 expected
Cincinnati Reds by 12 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 11 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 10 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 9 runs: 1%Cincinnati Reds by 8 runs: 1%Cincinnati Reds by 7 runs: 1%Cincinnati Reds by 6 runs: 2%Cincinnati Reds by 5 runs: 3%Cincinnati Reds by 4 runs: 5%Cincinnati Reds by 3 runs: 7%Cincinnati Reds by 2 runs: 10%Cincinnati Reds by 1 run: 17%Texas Rangers by 1 run: 13%Texas Rangers by 2 runs: 11%Texas Rangers by 3 runs: 8%Texas Rangers by 4 runs: 6%Texas Rangers by 5 runs: 5%Texas Rangers by 6 runs: 3%Texas Rangers by 7 runs: 2%Texas Rangers by 8 runs: 2%Texas Rangers by 9 runs: 1%Texas Rangers by 10 runs: 1%Texas Rangers by 11 runs: <1%Texas Rangers by 12 runs: <1%
← CIN wins byTEX wins by →
Texas Rangers wins by 2 or more40%
Texas Rangers wins by 3 or more29%
Cincinnati Reds wins by 2 or more30%
Decided by one run30%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.0 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 8%4 runs: 6%5 runs: 12%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 13%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 4%14 runs: 2%15 runs: 2%16 runs: 1%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.561%
Total over 8.541%
Total over 10.525%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
CINChase Burns SP · last 3 starts: 12.0 IP, 0.75 ERA, 19 Kstarted
TEXJack Leiter SP · last 3 starts: 18.2 IP, 3.86 ERA, 22 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
CIN·TEX
Apr 4 at TEX
last game
Apr 4 vs CIN
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
3rd straight road game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 8+ games
CIN·TEX
+0.03
rating (0 = average)
+0.05
3.0
runs / game
4.4
3.6
runs allowed / game
4.2
5−3
season record
4−4
3−3
home record
0−2
2−0
away record
4−2
W2
streak
L3
5−5
last 10
4−6
6.8
hits / game
8.6
1.12
home runs / game
1.12
3.9
walks drawn / game
3.0
9.9
batter strikeouts / game
9.6
9.1
pitcher strikeouts / game
9.8
0.00
errors / game
0.50

Rating Trend

CIN · TEX · 11 days
Cincinnati RedsTexas Rangers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · TEX 4−6
Apr 4at TEXCIN 2 − 0
Apr 3at TEXCIN 5 − 3
Apr 2, 2025at CINTEX 1 − 0
Apr 1, 2025at CINTEX 1 − 0
Mar 31, 2025at CINCIN 14 − 3
Apr 28, 2024at TEXTEX 4 − 3
Apr 27, 2024at TEXCIN 8 − 4
Apr 26, 2024at TEXTEX 2 − 1
Apr 26, 2023at CINCIN 5 − 3
Apr 25, 2023at CINCIN 7 − 6

CIN · Last 10

5−5 · streak W2
Apr 4at TEX2 − 0W
Apr 3at TEX5 − 3W
Apr 1vs PIT3 − 8L
Mar 31vs PIT3 − 8L
Mar 30vs PIT2 − 0W
Mar 29vs BOS3 − 2W
Mar 28vs BOS6 − 5W
Mar 26vs BOS0 − 3L
Oct 1, 2025at LAD4 − 8L
Sep 30, 2025at LAD5 − 10L

TEX · Last 10

4−6 · streak L3
Apr 4vs CIN0 − 2L
Apr 3vs CIN3 − 5L
Apr 1at BAL3 − 8L
Mar 31at BAL8 − 5W
Mar 30at BAL5 − 2W
Mar 29at PHI8 − 3W
Mar 28at PHI5 − 4W
Mar 26at PHI3 − 5L
Sep 28, 2025at CLE8 − 9L
Sep 27, 2025at CLE2 − 3L