bayesRatings

Marlins at Yankees

MLB · Sunday, Apr 5 · 12:35 PM CT · Yankee Stadium · Final MIA 7 – NYY 6
← MLB / Apr 5

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
MIA100101040771
NYY301000002671
Team box
MIA·NYY
7
hits
7
0
home runs
1
5
walks
9
9
strikeouts
9
186
pitches thrown
152
1
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Ben RiceNYY1-2213
Xavier EdwardsMIA2-4003
Otto LopezMIA2-3101
Graham PauleyMIA1-1102
Jazz Chisholm Jr.NYY1-5002
Austin SlaterMIA2-3100
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Pete FairbanksMIA1.03311
John King (W)MIA0.10000
Anthony Bender (S)MIA1.01232
Max FriedNYY6.25334
Jake Bird (L)NYY0.01310

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
NYY +3
MIA +3
123456789
largest lead: NYY 3 · MIA 3lead changes: 2

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was MIA 39%, NYY 61% · Updated Apr 5

Expected margin
NYY by 1.4
Expected score
NYY 5.5 – 4.1 MIA
Expected total
9.6
MarlinsThe matchupYankees
+158Our fair odds−158
4.1Expected runs5.5
−0.07Power rating+0.30
5.2Runs / game5.1
4.4Allowed / game1.9
9.4Hits / game7.2
1.00Home runs / game1.00
3.0Walks drawn / game4.6
5−3Season record7−1
6−4Last 108−2

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
MIA chance · NYY chance
Our model fair38.7%61.3%
Kalshi29.4%74.4%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 12:35 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
MIAMiami Marlins+15839%+24029.4%———
NYYNew York Yankees−15861%−29074.4%———
SpreadNYY by 1.4
MIAMiami Marlins+1.4our margin————
NYYNew York Yankees−1.4our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.6
Over9.6our total————
Under9.6our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

New York Yankees by 1.4 expected
Miami Marlins by 16 runs: <1%Miami Marlins by 15 runs: <1%Miami Marlins by 14 runs: <1%Miami Marlins by 13 runs: <1%Miami Marlins by 12 runs: <1%Miami Marlins by 11 runs: <1%Miami Marlins by 10 runs: <1%Miami Marlins by 9 runs: 1%Miami Marlins by 8 runs: 1%Miami Marlins by 7 runs: 1%Miami Marlins by 6 runs: 2%Miami Marlins by 5 runs: 3%Miami Marlins by 4 runs: 4%Miami Marlins by 3 runs: 5%Miami Marlins by 2 runs: 8%Miami Marlins by 1 run: 12%New York Yankees by 1 run: 13%New York Yankees by 2 runs: 10%New York Yankees by 3 runs: 8%New York Yankees by 4 runs: 7%New York Yankees by 5 runs: 6%New York Yankees by 6 runs: 4%New York Yankees by 7 runs: 3%New York Yankees by 8 runs: 3%New York Yankees by 9 runs: 2%New York Yankees by 10 runs: 1%New York Yankees by 11 runs: 1%New York Yankees by 12 runs: 1%New York Yankees by 13 runs: 1%New York Yankees by 14 runs: <1%New York Yankees by 15 runs: <1%New York Yankees by 16 runs: <1%
← MIA wins byNYY wins by →
New York Yankees wins by 2 or more48%
New York Yankees wins by 3 or more38%
Miami Marlins wins by 2 or more26%
Decided by one run26%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.6 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 5%4 runs: 4%5 runs: 9%6 runs: 6%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 7%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 4%15 runs: 4%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%25 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.562%
Total over 9.545%
Total over 11.530%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
MIAPete Fairbanks RP · no recent starts on recordstarted
NYYMax Fried SP · last 3 starts: 16.1 IP, 3.86 ERA, 11 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
MIA·NYY
Apr 4 at NYY
last game
Apr 4 vs MIA
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
5
3rd straight road game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 8+ games
MIA·NYY
−0.07
rating (0 = average)
+0.30
5.2
runs / game
5.1
4.4
runs allowed / game
1.9
5−3
season record
7−1
5−1
home record
2−0
0−2
away record
5−1
L2
streak
W4
6−4
last 10
8−2
9.4
hits / game
7.2
1.00
home runs / game
1.00
3.0
walks drawn / game
4.6
7.8
batter strikeouts / game
9.9
10.1
pitcher strikeouts / game
9.4
0.75
errors / game
0.38

Rating Trend

MIA · NYY · 11 days
Miami MarlinsNew York Yankees
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · NYY 4−6
Apr 4at NYYNYY 9 − 7
Apr 3at NYYNYY 8 − 2
Aug 3, 2025at MIAMIA 7 − 3
Aug 2, 2025at MIAMIA 2 − 0
Aug 1, 2025at MIAMIA 13 − 12
Apr 10, 2024at NYYMIA 5 − 2
Apr 9, 2024at NYYNYY 3 − 2
Apr 8, 2024at NYYNYY 7 − 0
Aug 13, 2023at MIAMIA 8 − 7
Aug 12, 2023at MIAMIA 3 − 1

MIA · Last 10

6−4 · streak L2
Apr 4at NYY7 − 9L
Apr 3at NYY2 − 8L
Apr 1vs CHW10 − 0W
Mar 31vs CHW9 − 2W
Mar 30vs CHW4 − 9L
Mar 29vs COL4 − 3W
Mar 28vs COL4 − 3W
Mar 27vs COL2 − 1W
Sep 28, 2025vs NYM4 − 0W
Sep 27, 2025vs NYM0 − 5L

NYY · Last 10

8−2 · streak W4
Apr 4vs MIA9 − 7W
Apr 3vs MIA8 − 2W
Apr 1at SEA5 − 3W
Mar 31at SEA5 − 0W
Mar 30at SEA1 − 2L
Mar 28at SF3 − 1W
Mar 27at SF3 − 0W
Mar 25at SF7 − 0W
Oct 8, 2025vs TOR2 − 5L
Oct 7, 2025vs TOR9 − 6W