bayesRatings

Reds at Marlins

MLB · Thursday, Apr 9 · 11:10 AM CT · loanDepot park · Final CIN 1 – MIA 8
← MLB / Apr 9

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
CIN000010000172
MIA100301128122
Team box
CIN·MIA
7
hits
12
1
home runs
0
4
walks
5
9
strikeouts
5
146
pitches thrown
136
2
errors
2
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Owen CaissieMIA3-4203
Javier SanojaMIA3-4002
Agustin RamirezMIA2-5102
Sal StewartCIN1-3111
Matt McLainCIN2-5000
Spencer SteerCIN2-4000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Rhett Lowder (L)CIN5.18422
Max Meyer (W)MIA5.04134
Tyler Phillips (S)MIA3.02014

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
MIA +7
CIN +7
123456789
largest lead: MIA 7 · CIN 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was CIN 50%, MIA 50% · Updated Apr 9

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
CIN 4.8 – 4.3 MIA
Expected total
9.1
RedsThe matchupMarlins
−102Our fair odds+102
4.8Expected runs4.3
+0.05Power rating−0.07
3.2Runs / game4.9
3.3Allowed / game4.4
7.0Hits / game8.7
0.92Home runs / game0.83
3.8Walks drawn / game3.2
8−4Season record7−5
7−3Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
CIN chance · MIA chance
Our model fair50.5%49.5%
Kalshi49.7%55.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 11:10 AM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
CINCincinnati Reds−10250%+10149.7%———
MIAMiami Marlins+10250%−12655.7%———
Spreadabout even
CINCincinnati Reds−0.4our margin————
MIAMiami Marlins+0.4our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.1
Over9.1our total————
Under9.1our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Cincinnati Reds by 14 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 13 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 12 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 11 runs: 1%Cincinnati Reds by 10 runs: 1%Cincinnati Reds by 9 runs: 1%Cincinnati Reds by 8 runs: 2%Cincinnati Reds by 7 runs: 3%Cincinnati Reds by 6 runs: 3%Cincinnati Reds by 5 runs: 5%Cincinnati Reds by 4 runs: 6%Cincinnati Reds by 3 runs: 8%Cincinnati Reds by 2 runs: 10%Cincinnati Reds by 1 run: 11%Miami Marlins by 1 run: 17%Miami Marlins by 2 runs: 9%Miami Marlins by 3 runs: 7%Miami Marlins by 4 runs: 5%Miami Marlins by 5 runs: 4%Miami Marlins by 6 runs: 3%Miami Marlins by 7 runs: 2%Miami Marlins by 8 runs: 1%Miami Marlins by 9 runs: 1%Miami Marlins by 10 runs: 1%Miami Marlins by 11 runs: <1%Miami Marlins by 12 runs: <1%Miami Marlins by 13 runs: <1%Miami Marlins by 14 runs: <1%
← CIN wins byMIA wins by →
Cincinnati Reds wins by 2 or more40%
Cincinnati Reds wins by 3 or more30%
Miami Marlins wins by 2 or more32%
Decided by one run27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.1 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.559%
Total over 9.541%
Total over 11.526%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
CINRhett Lowder SP · last 3 starts: 16.0 IP, 1.12 ERA, 10 Kstarted
MIAMax Meyer SP · last 3 starts: 14.2 IP, 5.52 ERA, 16 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
CIN·MIA
Apr 8 at MIA
last game
Apr 8 vs CIN
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
7th straight road game
home / road
4th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 12+ games
CIN·MIA
+0.05
rating (0 = average)
−0.07
3.2
runs / game
4.9
3.3
runs allowed / game
4.4
8−4
season record
7−5
3−3
home record
6−3
5−1
away record
1−2
L1
streak
W1
7−3
last 10
5−5
7.0
hits / game
8.7
0.92
home runs / game
0.83
3.8
walks drawn / game
3.2
9.5
batter strikeouts / game
7.5
8.9
pitcher strikeouts / game
9.4
0.17
errors / game
0.83

Rating Trend

CIN · MIA · 15 days
Cincinnati RedsMiami Marlins
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · MIA 5−5
Apr 8at MIAMIA 7 − 4
Apr 7at MIACIN 6 − 3
Apr 6at MIACIN 2 − 0
Jul 10, 2025at CINCIN 6 − 0
Jul 9, 2025at CINCIN 7 − 2
Jul 8, 2025at CINMIA 12 − 2
Jul 7, 2025at CINMIA 5 − 1
Apr 23, 2025at MIACIN 5 − 2
Apr 22, 2025at MIAMIA 4 − 3
Apr 21, 2025at MIAMIA 6 − 3

CIN · Last 10

7−3 · streak L1
Apr 8at MIA4 − 7L
Apr 7at MIA6 − 3W
Apr 6at MIA2 − 0W
Apr 5at TEX2 − 1W
Apr 4at TEX2 − 0W
Apr 3at TEX5 − 3W
Apr 1vs PIT3 − 8L
Mar 31vs PIT3 − 8L
Mar 30vs PIT2 − 0W
Mar 29vs BOS3 − 2W

MIA · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
Apr 8vs CIN7 − 4W
Apr 7vs CIN3 − 6L
Apr 6vs CIN0 − 2L
Apr 5at NYY7 − 6W
Apr 4at NYY7 − 9L
Apr 3at NYY2 − 8L
Apr 1vs CHW10 − 0W
Mar 31vs CHW9 − 2W
Mar 30vs CHW4 − 9L
Mar 29vs COL4 − 3W