bayesRatings

Marlins at Tigers

MLB · Friday, Apr 10 · 5:40 PM CT · Comerica Park · Final MIA 0 – DET 2
← MLB / Apr 10

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
MIA000000000021
DET01001000280
Team box
MIA·DET
2
hits
8
0
home runs
1
2
walks
1
9
strikeouts
7
130
pitches thrown
114
1
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Javier BaezDET1-3111
Spencer TorkelsonDET1-3001
Colt KeithDET2-4000
Riley GreeneDET1-4000
Kerry CarpenterDET1-4000
Dillon DinglerDET1-3100
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Chris Paddack (L)MIA6.07214
Keider Montero (W)DET6.02017
Kenley Jansen (S)DET1.00001

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
DET +3
MIA +3
123456789
largest lead: DET 2 · MIA 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was MIA 46%, DET 54% · Updated Apr 10

Expected margin
DET by 0.5
Expected score
DET 4.7 – 4.2 MIA
Expected total
8.8
MarlinsThe matchupTigers
+117Our fair odds−117
4.2Expected runs4.7
−0.05Power rating+0.02
5.2Runs / game4.2
4.2Allowed / game4.4
8.9Hits / game7.8
0.77Home runs / game0.54
3.4Walks drawn / game4.0
8−5Season record4−9
5−5Last 102−8

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
MIA chance · DET chance
Our model fair46.0%54.0%
Kalshi47.7%56.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 5:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
MIAMiami Marlins+11746%+10947.7%———
DETDetroit Tigers−11754%−13156.7%———
SpreadDET by 0.5
MIAMiami Marlins+0.5our margin————
DETDetroit Tigers−0.5our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.8
Over8.8our total————
Under8.8our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Detroit Tigers by 0.5 expected
Miami Marlins by 13 runs: <1%Miami Marlins by 12 runs: <1%Miami Marlins by 11 runs: <1%Miami Marlins by 10 runs: <1%Miami Marlins by 9 runs: 1%Miami Marlins by 8 runs: 1%Miami Marlins by 7 runs: 2%Miami Marlins by 6 runs: 3%Miami Marlins by 5 runs: 4%Miami Marlins by 4 runs: 5%Miami Marlins by 3 runs: 7%Miami Marlins by 2 runs: 9%Miami Marlins by 1 run: 14%Detroit Tigers by 1 run: 14%Detroit Tigers by 2 runs: 10%Detroit Tigers by 3 runs: 8%Detroit Tigers by 4 runs: 6%Detroit Tigers by 5 runs: 5%Detroit Tigers by 6 runs: 3%Detroit Tigers by 7 runs: 3%Detroit Tigers by 8 runs: 2%Detroit Tigers by 9 runs: 1%Detroit Tigers by 10 runs: 1%Detroit Tigers by 11 runs: 1%Detroit Tigers by 12 runs: <1%Detroit Tigers by 13 runs: <1%
← MIA wins byDET wins by →
Detroit Tigers wins by 2 or more40%
Detroit Tigers wins by 3 or more30%
Miami Marlins wins by 2 or more32%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.8 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.568%
Total over 8.548%
Total over 10.531%
Total from 7 to 1036%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
MIAChris Paddack SP · last 3 starts: 12.0 IP, 11.25 ERA, 11 Kstarted
DETKeider Montero SP · last 3 starts: 11.2 IP, 4.63 ERA, 12 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
MIA·DET
Apr 9 vs CIN
last game
Apr 9 at MIN
0 days
days of rest
0 days
7
games in last 7 days
7
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 13+ games
MIA·DET
−0.05
rating (0 = average)
+0.02
5.2
runs / game
4.2
4.2
runs allowed / game
4.4
8−5
season record
4−9
7−3
home record
2−1
1−2
away record
2−8
W2
streak
L5
5−5
last 10
2−8
8.9
hits / game
7.8
0.77
home runs / game
0.54
3.4
walks drawn / game
4.0
7.3
batter strikeouts / game
9.3
9.4
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.8
0.92
errors / game
0.77

Rating Trend

MIA · DET · 16 days
Miami MarlinsDetroit Tigers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 9 meetings · DET 3−6
Sep 14, 2025at MIADET 2 − 0
Sep 13, 2025at MIAMIA 6 − 4
Sep 12, 2025at MIAMIA 8 − 2
May 15, 2024at DETMIA 2 − 0
May 14, 2024at DETMIA 1 − 0
May 13, 2024at DETDET 6 − 5
Jul 30, 2023at MIAMIA 8 − 6
Jul 29, 2023at MIADET 5 − 0
Jul 28, 2023at MIAMIA 6 − 5

MIA · Last 10

5−5 · streak W2
Apr 9vs CIN8 − 1W
Apr 8vs CIN7 − 4W
Apr 7vs CIN3 − 6L
Apr 6vs CIN0 − 2L
Apr 5at NYY7 − 6W
Apr 4at NYY7 − 9L
Apr 3at NYY2 − 8L
Apr 1vs CHW10 − 0W
Mar 31vs CHW9 − 2W
Mar 30vs CHW4 − 9L

DET · Last 10

2−8 · streak L5
Apr 9at MIN1 − 3L
Apr 8at MIN6 − 8L
Apr 7at MIN2 − 4L
Apr 6at MIN3 − 7L
Apr 5vs STL3 − 5L
Apr 4vs STL11 − 6W
Apr 3vs STL4 − 0W
Apr 1at ARI0 − 1L
Mar 31at ARI5 − 7L
Mar 30at ARI6 − 9L