bayesRatings

Marlins at Tigers

MLB · Saturday, Apr 11 · 12:10 PM CT · Comerica Park · Final MIA 1 – DET 6
← MLB / Apr 11

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
MIA000100000162
DET20300001661
Team box
MIA·DET
6
hits
6
0
home runs
1
3
walks
4
7
strikeouts
6
145
pitches thrown
135
2
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Riley GreeneDET2-3214
Spencer TorkelsonDET1-2001
Colt KeithDET1-4101
Otto LopezMIA2-4000
Connor NorbyMIA1-3001
Kerry CarpenterDET1-3000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Janson Junk (L)MIA5.05424
Casey Mize (W)DET5.26115
Drew Anderson (S)DET3.10022

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
DET +5
MIA +5
123456789
largest lead: DET 5 · MIA 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was MIA 46%, DET 54% · Updated Apr 11

Expected margin
DET by 0.6
Expected score
DET 4.6 – 4.0 MIA
Expected total
8.7
MarlinsThe matchupTigers
+119Our fair odds−119
4.0Expected runs4.6
−0.06Power rating+0.02
4.8Runs / game4.0
4.0Allowed / game4.1
8.4Hits / game7.8
0.71Home runs / game0.57
3.3Walks drawn / game3.8
8−6Season record5−9
5−5Last 103−7

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
MIA chance · DET chance
Our model fair45.7%54.3%
Kalshi47.7%57.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 12:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
MIAMiami Marlins+11946%+10947.7%———
DETDetroit Tigers−11954%−13757.7%———
SpreadDET by 0.6
MIAMiami Marlins+0.6our margin————
DETDetroit Tigers−0.6our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.7
Over8.7our total————
Under8.7our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Detroit Tigers by 0.6 expected
Miami Marlins by 13 runs: <1%Miami Marlins by 12 runs: <1%Miami Marlins by 11 runs: <1%Miami Marlins by 10 runs: <1%Miami Marlins by 9 runs: 1%Miami Marlins by 8 runs: 1%Miami Marlins by 7 runs: 2%Miami Marlins by 6 runs: 2%Miami Marlins by 5 runs: 3%Miami Marlins by 4 runs: 5%Miami Marlins by 3 runs: 6%Miami Marlins by 2 runs: 9%Miami Marlins by 1 run: 15%Detroit Tigers by 1 run: 13%Detroit Tigers by 2 runs: 10%Detroit Tigers by 3 runs: 8%Detroit Tigers by 4 runs: 6%Detroit Tigers by 5 runs: 5%Detroit Tigers by 6 runs: 4%Detroit Tigers by 7 runs: 3%Detroit Tigers by 8 runs: 2%Detroit Tigers by 9 runs: 1%Detroit Tigers by 10 runs: 1%Detroit Tigers by 11 runs: 1%Detroit Tigers by 12 runs: <1%Detroit Tigers by 13 runs: <1%
← MIA wins byDET wins by →
Detroit Tigers wins by 2 or more41%
Detroit Tigers wins by 3 or more31%
Miami Marlins wins by 2 or more31%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.7 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.567%
Total over 8.547%
Total over 10.530%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
MIAJanson Junk SP · last 3 starts: 16.1 IP, 2.76 ERA, 12 Kstarted
DETCasey Mize SP · last 3 starts: 13.1 IP, 4.72 ERA, 19 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
MIA·DET
Apr 10 at DET
last game
Apr 10 vs MIA
0 days
days of rest
0 days
7
games in last 7 days
7
2nd straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 14+ games
MIA·DET
−0.06
rating (0 = average)
+0.02
4.8
runs / game
4.0
4.0
runs allowed / game
4.1
8−6
season record
5−9
7−3
home record
3−1
1−3
away record
2−8
L1
streak
W1
5−5
last 10
3−7
8.4
hits / game
7.8
0.71
home runs / game
0.57
3.3
walks drawn / game
3.8
7.4
batter strikeouts / game
9.1
9.2
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.9
0.93
errors / game
0.71

Rating Trend

MIA · DET · 17 days
Miami MarlinsDetroit Tigers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · DET 4−6
Apr 10at DETDET 2 − 0
Sep 14, 2025at MIADET 2 − 0
Sep 13, 2025at MIAMIA 6 − 4
Sep 12, 2025at MIAMIA 8 − 2
May 15, 2024at DETMIA 2 − 0
May 14, 2024at DETMIA 1 − 0
May 13, 2024at DETDET 6 − 5
Jul 30, 2023at MIAMIA 8 − 6
Jul 29, 2023at MIADET 5 − 0
Jul 28, 2023at MIAMIA 6 − 5

MIA · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
Apr 10at DET0 − 2L
Apr 9vs CIN8 − 1W
Apr 8vs CIN7 − 4W
Apr 7vs CIN3 − 6L
Apr 6vs CIN0 − 2L
Apr 5at NYY7 − 6W
Apr 4at NYY7 − 9L
Apr 3at NYY2 − 8L
Apr 1vs CHW10 − 0W
Mar 31vs CHW9 − 2W

DET · Last 10

3−7 · streak W1
Apr 10vs MIA2 − 0W
Apr 9at MIN1 − 3L
Apr 8at MIN6 − 8L
Apr 7at MIN2 − 4L
Apr 6at MIN3 − 7L
Apr 5vs STL3 − 5L
Apr 4vs STL11 − 6W
Apr 3vs STL4 − 0W
Apr 1at ARI0 − 1L
Mar 31at ARI5 − 7L