bayesRatings

Royals at Tigers

MLB · Thursday, Apr 16 · 12:10 PM CT · Comerica Park · Final KC 9 – DET 10
← MLB / Apr 16

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
KC0001016019130
DET01014010310140
Team box
KC·DET
13
hits
14
2
home runs
1
1
walks
4
8
strikeouts
8
161
pitches thrown
142
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Salvador PerezKC2-4114
Dillon DinglerDET2-5112
Riley GreeneDET3-4202
Bobby Witt Jr.KC3-5301
Vinnie PasquantinoKC1-5111
Gleyber TorresDET2-4201
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Kris BubicKC4.26533
Lucas Erceg (L)KC0.23311
Keider MonteroDET6.07405
Connor Seabold (W)DET1.11102

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
DET +5
KC +5
123456789
largest lead: DET 5 · KC 2lead changes: 2

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was KC 46%, DET 54% · Updated Apr 16

Expected margin
DET by 0.6
Expected score
DET 4.2 – 3.6 KC
Expected total
7.7
RoyalsThe matchupTigers
+119Our fair odds−119
3.6Expected runs4.2
−0.01Power rating+0.06
3.1Runs / game4.1
3.8Allowed / game3.4
6.8Hits / game7.7
0.72Home runs / game0.72
3.6Walks drawn / game3.7
7−11Season record9−9
3−7Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
KC chance · DET chance
Our model fair45.7%54.3%
Kalshi54.7%49.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 12:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
KCKansas City Royals+11946%−12154.7%———
DETDetroit Tigers−11954%+10149.7%———
SpreadDET by 0.6
KCKansas City Royals+0.6our margin————
DETDetroit Tigers−0.6our margin————
Totalwe expect 7.7
Over7.7our total————
Under7.7our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Detroit Tigers by 0.6 expected
Kansas City Royals by 12 runs: <1%Kansas City Royals by 11 runs: <1%Kansas City Royals by 10 runs: <1%Kansas City Royals by 9 runs: <1%Kansas City Royals by 8 runs: 1%Kansas City Royals by 7 runs: 1%Kansas City Royals by 6 runs: 2%Kansas City Royals by 5 runs: 3%Kansas City Royals by 4 runs: 4%Kansas City Royals by 3 runs: 6%Kansas City Royals by 2 runs: 10%Kansas City Royals by 1 run: 17%Detroit Tigers by 1 run: 14%Detroit Tigers by 2 runs: 11%Detroit Tigers by 3 runs: 8%Detroit Tigers by 4 runs: 6%Detroit Tigers by 5 runs: 5%Detroit Tigers by 6 runs: 3%Detroit Tigers by 7 runs: 2%Detroit Tigers by 8 runs: 2%Detroit Tigers by 9 runs: 1%Detroit Tigers by 10 runs: 1%Detroit Tigers by 11 runs: <1%Detroit Tigers by 12 runs: <1%
← KC wins byDET wins by →
Detroit Tigers wins by 2 or more40%
Detroit Tigers wins by 3 or more29%
Kansas City Royals wins by 2 or more29%
Decided by one run31%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

7.7 expected
1 runs: 3%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 9%4 runs: 6%5 runs: 13%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 13%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 4%14 runs: 2%15 runs: 2%16 runs: 1%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: <1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 5.567%
Total over 7.546%
Total over 9.528%
Total from 6 to 939%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
KCKris Bubic SP · last 3 starts: 18.0 IP, 2.50 ERA, 23 Kstarted
DETKeider Montero SP · last 3 starts: 14.2 IP, 1.84 ERA, 17 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
KC·DET
Apr 15 at DET
last game
Apr 15 vs KC
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
3rd straight road game
home / road
6th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 18+ games
KC·DET
−0.01
rating (0 = average)
+0.06
3.1
runs / game
4.1
3.8
runs allowed / game
3.4
7−11
season record
9−9
5−5
home record
7−1
2−6
away record
2−8
L3
streak
W5
3−7
last 10
5−5
6.8
hits / game
7.7
0.72
home runs / game
0.72
3.6
walks drawn / game
3.7
8.3
batter strikeouts / game
8.4
8.5
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.6
0.33
errors / game
0.61

Rating Trend

KC · DET · 22 days
Kansas City RoyalsDetroit Tigers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · DET 7−3
Apr 15at DETDET 2 − 1
Apr 14at DETDET 2 − 1
Aug 31, 2025at KCDET 5 − 0
Aug 30, 2025at KCKC 3 − 1
Aug 29, 2025at KCDET 5 − 3
Aug 24, 2025at DETKC 10 − 8
Aug 23, 2025at DETDET 4 − 2
Aug 22, 2025at DETDET 7 − 5
Jun 1, 2025at KCDET 1 − 0
May 31, 2025at KCKC 1 − 0

KC · Last 10

3−7 · streak L3
Apr 15at DET1 − 2L
Apr 14at DET1 − 2L
Apr 12vs CHW5 − 6L
Apr 11vs CHW2 − 0W
Apr 10vs CHW2 − 0W
Apr 9vs CHW0 − 2L
Apr 8at CLE2 − 10L
Apr 7at CLE1 − 2L
Apr 6at CLE4 − 2W
Apr 5vs MIL5 − 8L

DET · Last 10

5−5 · streak W5
Apr 15vs KC2 − 1W
Apr 14vs KC2 − 1W
Apr 12vs MIA8 − 2W
Apr 11vs MIA6 − 1W
Apr 10vs MIA2 − 0W
Apr 9at MIN1 − 3L
Apr 8at MIN6 − 8L
Apr 7at MIN2 − 4L
Apr 6at MIN3 − 7L
Apr 5vs STL3 − 5L