bayesRatings

White Sox at Royals

MLB · Saturday, Apr 11 · 3:10 PM CT · Kauffman Stadium · Final CHW 0 – KC 2
← MLB / Apr 11

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
CHW000000000040
KC10000001240
Team box
CHW·KC
4
hits
4
0
home runs
1
1
walks
1
8
strikeouts
6
124
pitches thrown
100
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Maikel GarciaKC2-4211
Reese McGuireCHW1-3000
Andrew BenintendiCHW1-4000
Lenyn SosaCHW1-3000
Tanner MurrayCHW1-3000
Salvador PerezKC1-4000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Erick Fedde (L)CHW5.03114
Michael Wacha (W)KC8.04017
Lucas Erceg (S)KC1.00001

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
KC +3
CHW +3
123456789
largest lead: KC 2 · CHW 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was CHW 40%, KC 60% · Updated Apr 11

Expected margin
KC by 1.3
Expected score
KC 4.5 – 3.1 CHW
Expected total
7.6
White SoxThe matchupRoyals
+152Our fair odds−152
3.1Expected runs4.5
−0.32Power rating+0.01
3.1Runs / game3.4
5.1Allowed / game4.2
6.2Hits / game7.3
0.71Home runs / game0.86
3.4Walks drawn / game3.8
5−9Season record6−8
4−6Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
CHW chance · KC chance
Our model fair39.7%60.3%
Kalshi38.6%65.6%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 3:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
CHWChicago White Sox+15240%+15938.6%———
KCKansas City Royals−15260%−19165.6%———
SpreadKC by 1.3
CHWChicago White Sox+1.3our margin————
KCKansas City Royals−1.3our margin————
Totalwe expect 7.6
Over7.6our total————
Under7.6our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Kansas City Royals by 1.3 expected
Chicago White Sox by 13 runs: <1%Chicago White Sox by 12 runs: <1%Chicago White Sox by 11 runs: <1%Chicago White Sox by 10 runs: <1%Chicago White Sox by 9 runs: <1%Chicago White Sox by 8 runs: <1%Chicago White Sox by 7 runs: 1%Chicago White Sox by 6 runs: 1%Chicago White Sox by 5 runs: 2%Chicago White Sox by 4 runs: 3%Chicago White Sox by 3 runs: 5%Chicago White Sox by 2 runs: 8%Chicago White Sox by 1 run: 17%Kansas City Royals by 1 run: 13%Kansas City Royals by 2 runs: 12%Kansas City Royals by 3 runs: 9%Kansas City Royals by 4 runs: 7%Kansas City Royals by 5 runs: 6%Kansas City Royals by 6 runs: 4%Kansas City Royals by 7 runs: 3%Kansas City Royals by 8 runs: 2%Kansas City Royals by 9 runs: 1%Kansas City Royals by 10 runs: 1%Kansas City Royals by 11 runs: 1%Kansas City Royals by 12 runs: <1%Kansas City Royals by 13 runs: <1%
← CHW wins byKC wins by →
Kansas City Royals wins by 2 or more47%
Kansas City Royals wins by 3 or more35%
Chicago White Sox wins by 2 or more23%
Decided by one run30%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

7.6 expected
1 runs: 3%2 runs: 3%3 runs: 9%4 runs: 7%5 runs: 13%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 13%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 6%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 4%14 runs: 2%15 runs: 2%16 runs: 1%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: <1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 5.566%
Total over 7.544%
Total over 9.527%
Total from 6 to 939%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
CHWErick Fedde SP · last 3 starts: 14.0 IP, 7.07 ERA, 13 Kstarted
KCMichael Wacha SP · last 3 starts: 19.0 IP, 0.47 ERA, 15 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
CHW·KC
Apr 10 at KC
last game
Apr 10 vs CHW
0 days
days of rest
0 days
7
games in last 7 days
8
3rd straight road game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 14+ games
CHW·KC
−0.32
rating (0 = average)
+0.01
3.1
runs / game
3.4
5.1
runs allowed / game
4.2
5−9
season record
6−8
3−3
home record
4−4
2−6
away record
2−4
L1
streak
W1
4−6
last 10
4−6
6.2
hits / game
7.3
0.71
home runs / game
0.86
3.4
walks drawn / game
3.8
10.2
batter strikeouts / game
8.7
7.9
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.9
0.71
errors / game
0.43

Rating Trend

CHW · KC · 17 days
Chicago White SoxKansas City Royals
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · KC 7−3
Apr 10at KCKC 2 − 0
Apr 9at KCCHW 2 − 0
Aug 27, 2025at CHWKC 12 − 1
Aug 26, 2025at CHWKC 5 − 4
Aug 25, 2025at CHWCHW 7 − 0
Aug 17, 2025at KCKC 6 − 2
Aug 16, 2025at KCKC 6 − 2
Aug 15, 2025at KCKC 3 − 1
Jun 8, 2025at CHWKC 7 − 5
Jun 7, 2025at CHWCHW 4 − 1

CHW · Last 10

4−6 · streak L1
Apr 10at KC0 − 2L
Apr 9at KC2 − 0W
Apr 8vs BAL3 − 5L
Apr 7vs BAL2 − 4L
Apr 6vs BAL1 − 2L
Apr 5vs TOR3 − 0W
Apr 4vs TOR6 − 3W
Apr 3vs TOR5 − 4W
Apr 1at MIA0 − 10L
Mar 31at MIA2 − 9L

KC · Last 10

4−6 · streak W1
Apr 10vs CHW2 − 0W
Apr 9vs CHW0 − 2L
Apr 8at CLE2 − 10L
Apr 7at CLE1 − 2L
Apr 6at CLE4 − 2W
Apr 5vs MIL5 − 8L
Apr 4vs MIL8 − 2W
Apr 4vs MIL2 − 5L
Apr 2vs MIN1 − 5L
Apr 1vs MIN13 − 9W