bayesRatings

Orioles at White Sox

MLB · Wednesday, Apr 8 · 1:10 PM CT · Rate Field · Final BAL 5 – CHW 3
← MLB / Apr 8

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
BAL002002001572
CHW020010000370
Team box
BAL·CHW
7
hits
7
0
home runs
0
5
walks
6
7
strikeouts
12
160
pitches thrown
171
2
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Taylor WardBAL4-5102
Luisangel AcunaCHW1-4001
Dustin HarrisCHW1-3101
Tyler O'NeillBAL1-2100
Pete AlonsoBAL1-5100
Adley RutschmanBAL0-5001
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Kyle Bradish (W)BAL5.06237
Rico Garcia (S)BAL1.00022
Sean BurkeCHW5.02223
Lucas Sims (L)CHW0.12111

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CHW +3
BAL +3
123456789
largest lead: CHW 2 · BAL 2lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was BAL 54%, CHW 46% · Updated Apr 8

Expected margin
BAL by 0.5
Expected score
BAL 4.7 – 4.2 CHW
Expected total
8.8
OriolesThe matchupWhite Sox
−118Our fair odds+118
4.7Expected runs4.2
−0.06Power rating−0.32
3.6Runs / game3.5
4.2Allowed / game5.9
8.0Hits / game6.6
0.73Home runs / game0.91
3.9Walks drawn / game3.3
5−6Season record4−7
4−6Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
BAL chance · CHW chance
Our model fair54.1%45.9%
Kalshi59.7%44.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 1:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
BALBaltimore Orioles−11854%−14859.7%———
CHWChicago White Sox+11846%+12444.7%———
SpreadBAL by 0.5
BALBaltimore Orioles−0.5our margin————
CHWChicago White Sox+0.5our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.8
Over8.8our total————
Under8.8our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Baltimore Orioles by 0.5 expected
Baltimore Orioles by 13 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 12 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 11 runs: 1%Baltimore Orioles by 10 runs: 1%Baltimore Orioles by 9 runs: 1%Baltimore Orioles by 8 runs: 2%Baltimore Orioles by 7 runs: 3%Baltimore Orioles by 6 runs: 3%Baltimore Orioles by 5 runs: 5%Baltimore Orioles by 4 runs: 6%Baltimore Orioles by 3 runs: 8%Baltimore Orioles by 2 runs: 10%Baltimore Orioles by 1 run: 14%Chicago White Sox by 1 run: 14%Chicago White Sox by 2 runs: 9%Chicago White Sox by 3 runs: 7%Chicago White Sox by 4 runs: 5%Chicago White Sox by 5 runs: 4%Chicago White Sox by 6 runs: 3%Chicago White Sox by 7 runs: 2%Chicago White Sox by 8 runs: 1%Chicago White Sox by 9 runs: 1%Chicago White Sox by 10 runs: <1%Chicago White Sox by 11 runs: <1%Chicago White Sox by 12 runs: <1%Chicago White Sox by 13 runs: <1%
← BAL wins byCHW wins by →
Baltimore Orioles wins by 2 or more40%
Baltimore Orioles wins by 3 or more30%
Chicago White Sox wins by 2 or more32%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.8 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.568%
Total over 8.548%
Total over 10.531%
Total from 7 to 1036%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
BALKyle Bradish SP · last 3 starts: 12.2 IP, 5.68 ERA, 18 Kstarted
CHWSean Burke SP · last 3 starts: 12.1 IP, 5.84 ERA, 14 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
BAL·CHW
Apr 7 at CHW
last game
Apr 7 vs BAL
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
6th straight road game
home / road
6th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 11+ games
BAL·CHW
−0.06
rating (0 = average)
−0.32
3.6
runs / game
3.5
4.2
runs allowed / game
5.9
5−6
season record
4−7
3−3
home record
3−2
2−3
away record
1−5
W2
streak
L2
4−6
last 10
4−6
8.0
hits / game
6.6
0.73
home runs / game
0.91
3.9
walks drawn / game
3.3
9.9
batter strikeouts / game
10.5
8.7
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.1
0.64
errors / game
0.91

Rating Trend

BAL · CHW · 14 days
Baltimore OriolesChicago White Sox
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · CHW 1−9
Apr 7at CHWBAL 4 − 2
Apr 6at CHWBAL 2 − 1
Sep 17, 2025at CHWBAL 3 − 1
Sep 16, 2025at CHWBAL 8 − 7
Sep 15, 2025at CHWBAL 4 − 1
Jun 1, 2025at BALBAL 3 − 2
May 31, 2025at BALBAL 4 − 2
May 30, 2025at BALBAL 2 − 1
Sep 4, 2024at BALCHW 8 − 1
Sep 3, 2024at BALBAL 9 − 0

BAL · Last 10

4−6 · streak W2
Apr 7at CHW4 − 2W
Apr 6at CHW2 − 1W
Apr 5at PIT2 − 8L
Apr 4at PIT2 − 3L
Apr 3at PIT4 − 5L
Apr 1vs TEX8 − 3W
Mar 31vs TEX5 − 8L
Mar 30vs TEX2 − 5L
Mar 29vs MIN8 − 6W
Mar 28vs MIN1 − 4L

CHW · Last 10

4−6 · streak L2
Apr 7vs BAL2 − 4L
Apr 6vs BAL1 − 2L
Apr 5vs TOR3 − 0W
Apr 4vs TOR6 − 3W
Apr 3vs TOR5 − 4W
Apr 1at MIA0 − 10L
Mar 31at MIA2 − 9L
Mar 30at MIA9 − 4W
Mar 29at MIL7 − 9L
Mar 28at MIL1 − 6L