bayesRatings

Orioles at Pirates

MLB · Saturday, Apr 4 · 3:05 PM CT · PNC Park · Final BAL 2 – PIT 3
← MLB / Apr 4

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
BAL000200000261
PIT000100011380
Team box
BAL·PIT
6
hits
8
0
home runs
0
7
walks
6
8
strikeouts
7
169
pitches thrown
159
1
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Bryan ReynoldsPIT3-4200
Leody TaverasBAL1-2001
Adley RutschmanBAL2-4100
Dylan BeaversBAL1-4001
Spencer HorwitzPIT1-3001
Nick YorkePIT1-1101
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Shane BazBAL5.24135
Ryan Helsley (L)BAL0.12110
Carmen MlodzinskiPIT4.25235
Dennis Santana (W)PIT1.00001

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
PIT +3
BAL +3
123456789
largest lead: PIT 1 · BAL 2lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was BAL 48%, PIT 52% · Updated Apr 4

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
PIT 4.0 – 3.8 BAL
Expected total
7.8
OriolesThe matchupPirates
+111Our fair odds−111
3.8Expected runs4.0
−0.05Power rating−0.05
4.3Runs / game4.9
4.6Allowed / game4.3
8.4Hits / game8.0
0.86Home runs / game1.43
3.9Walks drawn / game4.4
3−4Season record4−3
3−7Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
BAL chance · PIT chance
Our model fair47.5%52.5%
Kalshi50.7%53.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 3:05 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
BALBaltimore Orioles+11148%−10350.7%———
PITPittsburgh Pirates−11152%−11653.7%———
Spreadabout even
BALBaltimore Orioles+0.3our margin————
PITPittsburgh Pirates−0.3our margin————
Totalwe expect 7.8
Over7.8our total————
Under7.8our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Baltimore Orioles by 12 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 11 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 10 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 9 runs: 1%Baltimore Orioles by 8 runs: 1%Baltimore Orioles by 7 runs: 2%Baltimore Orioles by 6 runs: 2%Baltimore Orioles by 5 runs: 3%Baltimore Orioles by 4 runs: 5%Baltimore Orioles by 3 runs: 7%Baltimore Orioles by 2 runs: 10%Baltimore Orioles by 1 run: 16%Pittsburgh Pirates by 1 run: 15%Pittsburgh Pirates by 2 runs: 11%Pittsburgh Pirates by 3 runs: 8%Pittsburgh Pirates by 4 runs: 6%Pittsburgh Pirates by 5 runs: 4%Pittsburgh Pirates by 6 runs: 3%Pittsburgh Pirates by 7 runs: 2%Pittsburgh Pirates by 8 runs: 1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 9 runs: 1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 10 runs: 1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 11 runs: <1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 12 runs: <1%
← BAL wins byPIT wins by →
Pittsburgh Pirates wins by 2 or more37%
Pittsburgh Pirates wins by 3 or more27%
Baltimore Orioles wins by 2 or more32%
Decided by one run31%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

7.8 expected
1 runs: 3%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 9%4 runs: 6%5 runs: 13%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 13%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 4%14 runs: 2%15 runs: 2%16 runs: 1%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: <1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 5.568%
Total over 7.547%
Total over 9.529%
Total from 6 to 939%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
BALShane Baz SP · last 3 starts: 14.1 IP, 2.51 ERA, 11 Kstarted
PITCarmen Mlodzinski RP · last 3 starts: 9.1 IP, 3.86 ERA, 13 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
BAL·PIT
Apr 3 at PIT
last game
Apr 3 vs BAL
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
2nd straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 7+ games
BAL·PIT
−0.05
rating (0 = average)
−0.05
4.3
runs / game
4.9
4.6
runs allowed / game
4.3
3−4
season record
4−3
3−3
home record
1−0
0−1
away record
3−3
L1
streak
W3
3−7
last 10
6−4
8.4
hits / game
8.0
0.86
home runs / game
1.43
3.9
walks drawn / game
4.4
9.6
batter strikeouts / game
9.9
9.7
pitcher strikeouts / game
10.1
0.57
errors / game
0.43

Rating Trend

BAL · PIT · 10 days
Baltimore OriolesPittsburgh Pirates
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · PIT 4−6
Apr 3at PITPIT 5 − 4
Sep 11, 2025at BALBAL 3 − 2
Sep 10, 2025at BALBAL 2 − 1
Sep 9, 2025at BALBAL 3 − 2
Apr 7, 2024at PITPIT 3 − 2
Apr 6, 2024at PITPIT 5 − 4
Apr 5, 2024at PITBAL 5 − 2
May 14, 2023at BALPIT 4 − 0
May 13, 2023at BALBAL 2 − 0
May 12, 2023at BALBAL 6 − 3

BAL · Last 10

3−7 · streak L1
Apr 3at PIT4 − 5L
Apr 1vs TEX8 − 3W
Mar 31vs TEX5 − 8L
Mar 30vs TEX2 − 5L
Mar 29vs MIN8 − 6W
Mar 28vs MIN1 − 4L
Mar 26vs MIN2 − 1W
Sep 28, 2025at NYY2 − 3L
Sep 27, 2025at NYY1 − 6L
Sep 26, 2025at NYY4 − 8L

PIT · Last 10

6−4 · streak W3
Apr 3vs BAL5 − 4W
Apr 1at CIN8 − 3W
Mar 31at CIN8 − 3W
Mar 30at CIN0 − 2L
Mar 29at NYM4 − 3W
Mar 28at NYM2 − 4L
Mar 26at NYM7 − 11L
Sep 28, 2025at ATL1 − 4L
Sep 27, 2025at ATL3 − 1W
Sep 26, 2025at ATL9 − 3W