bayesRatings

Orioles at Pirates

MLB · Friday, Apr 3 · 3:12 PM CT · PNC Park · Final BAL 4 – PIT 5
← MLB / Apr 3

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
BAL000020101490
PIT04001000560
Team box
BAL·PIT
9
hits
6
1
home runs
0
5
walks
6
9
strikeouts
10
151
pitches thrown
146
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Gunnar HendersonBAL3-5212
Jared TrioloPIT2-3101
Taylor WardBAL1-3001
Blaze AlexanderBAL2-4200
Adley RutschmanBAL1-3001
Dylan BeaversBAL2-4000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Kyle Bradish (L)BAL4.06436
Mitch Keller (W)PIT6.06244
Gregory Soto (S)PIT1.01103

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
PIT +4
BAL +4
123456789
largest lead: PIT 4 · BAL 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was BAL 48%, PIT 52% · Updated Apr 3

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
PIT 4.0 – 3.8 BAL
Expected total
7.8
OriolesThe matchupPirates
+108Our fair odds−108
3.8Expected runs4.0
−0.04Power rating−0.05
4.3Runs / game4.8
4.5Allowed / game4.3
8.3Hits / game8.3
0.83Home runs / game1.67
3.7Walks drawn / game4.2
3−3Season record3−3
4−6Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
BAL chance · PIT chance
Our model fair48.0%52.0%
Kalshi54.7%49.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 3:12 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
BALBaltimore Orioles+10848%−12154.7%———
PITPittsburgh Pirates−10852%+10149.7%———
Spreadabout even
BALBaltimore Orioles+0.2our margin————
PITPittsburgh Pirates−0.2our margin————
Totalwe expect 7.8
Over7.8our total————
Under7.8our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Baltimore Orioles by 12 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 11 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 10 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 9 runs: 1%Baltimore Orioles by 8 runs: 1%Baltimore Orioles by 7 runs: 2%Baltimore Orioles by 6 runs: 2%Baltimore Orioles by 5 runs: 4%Baltimore Orioles by 4 runs: 5%Baltimore Orioles by 3 runs: 7%Baltimore Orioles by 2 runs: 10%Baltimore Orioles by 1 run: 15%Pittsburgh Pirates by 1 run: 16%Pittsburgh Pirates by 2 runs: 11%Pittsburgh Pirates by 3 runs: 8%Pittsburgh Pirates by 4 runs: 6%Pittsburgh Pirates by 5 runs: 4%Pittsburgh Pirates by 6 runs: 3%Pittsburgh Pirates by 7 runs: 2%Pittsburgh Pirates by 8 runs: 1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 9 runs: 1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 10 runs: 1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 11 runs: <1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 12 runs: <1%
← BAL wins byPIT wins by →
Pittsburgh Pirates wins by 2 or more36%
Pittsburgh Pirates wins by 3 or more26%
Baltimore Orioles wins by 2 or more33%
Decided by one run31%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

7.8 expected
1 runs: 3%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 9%4 runs: 6%5 runs: 13%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 13%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 4%14 runs: 2%15 runs: 2%16 runs: 1%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: <1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 5.568%
Total over 7.547%
Total over 9.529%
Total from 6 to 939%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
BALKyle Bradish SP · last 3 starts: 14.2 IP, 3.07 ERA, 21 Kstarted
PITMitch Keller SP · last 3 starts: 14.2 IP, 3.07 ERA, 13 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
BAL·PIT
Apr 1 vs TEX
last game
Apr 1 at CIN
1 day
days of rest
1 day
5
games in last 7 days
5
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 6+ games
BAL·PIT
−0.04
rating (0 = average)
−0.05
4.3
runs / game
4.8
4.5
runs allowed / game
4.3
3−3
season record
3−3
3−3
home record
0−0
0−0
away record
3−3
W1
streak
W2
4−6
last 10
5−5
8.3
hits / game
8.3
0.83
home runs / game
1.67
3.7
walks drawn / game
4.2
9.7
batter strikeouts / game
9.8
9.7
pitcher strikeouts / game
10.3
0.67
errors / game
0.50

Rating Trend

BAL · PIT · 9 days
Baltimore OriolesPittsburgh Pirates
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · PIT 4−6
Sep 11, 2025at BALBAL 3 − 2
Sep 10, 2025at BALBAL 2 − 1
Sep 9, 2025at BALBAL 3 − 2
Apr 7, 2024at PITPIT 3 − 2
Apr 6, 2024at PITPIT 5 − 4
Apr 5, 2024at PITBAL 5 − 2
May 14, 2023at BALPIT 4 − 0
May 13, 2023at BALBAL 2 − 0
May 12, 2023at BALBAL 6 − 3
Aug 7, 2022at BALPIT 8 − 1

BAL · Last 10

4−6 · streak W1
Apr 1vs TEX8 − 3W
Mar 31vs TEX5 − 8L
Mar 30vs TEX2 − 5L
Mar 29vs MIN8 − 6W
Mar 28vs MIN1 − 4L
Mar 26vs MIN2 − 1W
Sep 28, 2025at NYY2 − 3L
Sep 27, 2025at NYY1 − 6L
Sep 26, 2025at NYY4 − 8L
Sep 25, 2025vs TB6 − 5W

PIT · Last 10

5−5 · streak W2
Apr 1at CIN8 − 3W
Mar 31at CIN8 − 3W
Mar 30at CIN0 − 2L
Mar 29at NYM4 − 3W
Mar 28at NYM2 − 4L
Mar 26at NYM7 − 11L
Sep 28, 2025at ATL1 − 4L
Sep 27, 2025at ATL3 − 1W
Sep 26, 2025at ATL9 − 3W
Sep 25, 2025at CIN1 − 2L