bayesRatings

Orioles at White Sox

MLB · Monday, Apr 6 · 6:40 PM CT · Rate Field · Final BAL 2 – CHW 1
← MLB / Apr 6

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
BAL000101000271
CHW000000001140
Team box
BAL·CHW
7
hits
4
1
home runs
0
1
walks
5
7
strikeouts
6
132
pitches thrown
123
1
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Gunnar HendersonBAL1-4111
Tyler O'NeillBAL1-4001
Ryan MountcastleBAL2-3000
Chase MeidrothCHW2-3000
Taylor WardBAL1-4000
Jeremiah JacksonBAL1-3000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Brandon Young (W)BAL5.02022
Ryan Helsley (S)BAL1.01121
Grant TaylorCHW1.01001
Erick Fedde (L)CHW6.05214

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CHW +3
BAL +3
123456789
largest lead: CHW 0 · BAL 2lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was BAL 53%, CHW 47% · Updated Apr 6

Expected margin
BAL by 0.5
Expected score
BAL 4.8 – 4.2 CHW
Expected total
9.0
OriolesThe matchupWhite Sox
−114Our fair odds+114
4.8Expected runs4.2
−0.08Power rating−0.29
3.8Runs / game3.9
4.8Allowed / game6.6
8.1Hits / game7.0
0.67Home runs / game1.11
3.8Walks drawn / game3.3
3−6Season record4−5
3−7Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
BAL chance · CHW chance
Our model fair53.2%46.8%
Kalshi58.7%46.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
BALBaltimore Orioles−11453%−14258.7%———
CHWChicago White Sox+11447%+11446.7%———
SpreadBAL by 0.5
BALBaltimore Orioles−0.5our margin————
CHWChicago White Sox+0.5our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.0
Over9.0our total————
Under9.0our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Baltimore Orioles by 0.5 expected
Baltimore Orioles by 14 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 13 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 12 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 11 runs: 1%Baltimore Orioles by 10 runs: 1%Baltimore Orioles by 9 runs: 1%Baltimore Orioles by 8 runs: 2%Baltimore Orioles by 7 runs: 3%Baltimore Orioles by 6 runs: 4%Baltimore Orioles by 5 runs: 5%Baltimore Orioles by 4 runs: 6%Baltimore Orioles by 3 runs: 8%Baltimore Orioles by 2 runs: 10%Baltimore Orioles by 1 run: 13%Chicago White Sox by 1 run: 15%Chicago White Sox by 2 runs: 9%Chicago White Sox by 3 runs: 6%Chicago White Sox by 4 runs: 5%Chicago White Sox by 5 runs: 4%Chicago White Sox by 6 runs: 3%Chicago White Sox by 7 runs: 2%Chicago White Sox by 8 runs: 1%Chicago White Sox by 9 runs: 1%Chicago White Sox by 10 runs: 1%Chicago White Sox by 11 runs: <1%Chicago White Sox by 12 runs: <1%Chicago White Sox by 13 runs: <1%Chicago White Sox by 14 runs: <1%
← BAL wins byCHW wins by →
Baltimore Orioles wins by 2 or more40%
Baltimore Orioles wins by 3 or more30%
Chicago White Sox wins by 2 or more32%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.0 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.558%
Total over 9.540%
Total over 11.525%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
BALBrandon Young SP · last 3 starts: 16.1 IP, 7.16 ERA, 9 Kstarted
CHWGrant Taylor RP · last 3 starts: 3.0 IP, 6.00 ERA, 4 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
BAL·CHW
Apr 5 at PIT
last game
Apr 5 vs TOR
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
4th straight road game
home / road
4th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 9+ games
BAL·CHW
−0.08
rating (0 = average)
−0.29
3.8
runs / game
3.9
4.8
runs allowed / game
6.6
3−6
season record
4−5
3−3
home record
3−0
0−3
away record
1−5
L3
streak
W3
3−7
last 10
5−5
8.1
hits / game
7.0
0.67
home runs / game
1.11
3.8
walks drawn / game
3.3
9.9
batter strikeouts / game
10.8
8.7
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.7
0.56
errors / game
0.89

Rating Trend

BAL · CHW · 12 days
Baltimore OriolesChicago White Sox
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · CHW 1−9
Sep 17, 2025at CHWBAL 3 − 1
Sep 16, 2025at CHWBAL 8 − 7
Sep 15, 2025at CHWBAL 4 − 1
Jun 1, 2025at BALBAL 3 − 2
May 31, 2025at BALBAL 4 − 2
May 30, 2025at BALBAL 2 − 1
Sep 4, 2024at BALCHW 8 − 1
Sep 3, 2024at BALBAL 9 − 0
Sep 2, 2024at BALBAL 13 − 3
May 26, 2024at CHWBAL 4 − 1

BAL · Last 10

3−7 · streak L3
Apr 5at PIT2 − 8L
Apr 4at PIT2 − 3L
Apr 3at PIT4 − 5L
Apr 1vs TEX8 − 3W
Mar 31vs TEX5 − 8L
Mar 30vs TEX2 − 5L
Mar 29vs MIN8 − 6W
Mar 28vs MIN1 − 4L
Mar 26vs MIN2 − 1W
Sep 28, 2025at NYY2 − 3L

CHW · Last 10

5−5 · streak W3
Apr 5vs TOR3 − 0W
Apr 4vs TOR6 − 3W
Apr 3vs TOR5 − 4W
Apr 1at MIA0 − 10L
Mar 31at MIA2 − 9L
Mar 30at MIA9 − 4W
Mar 29at MIL7 − 9L
Mar 28at MIL1 − 6L
Mar 26at MIL2 − 14L
Sep 28, 2025at WSH8 − 0W