bayesRatings

Orioles at White Sox

MLB · Tuesday, Apr 7 · 2:10 PM CT · Rate Field · Final BAL 4 – CHW 2
← MLB / Apr 7

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
BAL000010030481
CHW002000000262
Team box
BAL·CHW
8
hits
6
1
home runs
0
8
walks
1
13
strikeouts
12
151
pitches thrown
197
1
errors
2
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Gunnar HendersonBAL2-4112
Chase MeidrothCHW2-4101
Tyler O'NeillBAL2-3000
Taylor WardBAL1-3101
Blaze AlexanderBAL2-4100
Lenyn SosaCHW1-4001
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Trevor RogersBAL6.06206
Yennier Cano (W)BAL1.00001
Ryan Helsley (S)BAL1.00012
Shane SmithCHW3.21058
Jordan Hicks (L)CHW1.13202

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CHW +3
BAL +3
123456789
largest lead: CHW 2 · BAL 2lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was BAL 54%, CHW 46% · Updated Apr 7

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
BAL 4.7 – 4.2 CHW
Expected total
8.9
OriolesThe matchupWhite Sox
−116Our fair odds+116
4.7Expected runs4.2
−0.07Power rating−0.31
3.6Runs / game3.6
4.4Allowed / game6.1
8.0Hits / game6.7
0.70Home runs / game1.00
3.5Walks drawn / game3.5
4−6Season record4−6
4−6Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
BAL chance · CHW chance
Our model fair53.6%46.4%
Kalshi60.7%44.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 2:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
BALBaltimore Orioles−11654%−15460.7%———
CHWChicago White Sox+11646%+12444.7%———
Spreadabout even
BALBaltimore Orioles−0.4our margin————
CHWChicago White Sox+0.4our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.9
Over8.9our total————
Under8.9our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Baltimore Orioles by 13 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 12 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 11 runs: 1%Baltimore Orioles by 10 runs: 1%Baltimore Orioles by 9 runs: 1%Baltimore Orioles by 8 runs: 2%Baltimore Orioles by 7 runs: 2%Baltimore Orioles by 6 runs: 3%Baltimore Orioles by 5 runs: 5%Baltimore Orioles by 4 runs: 6%Baltimore Orioles by 3 runs: 8%Baltimore Orioles by 2 runs: 10%Baltimore Orioles by 1 run: 14%Chicago White Sox by 1 run: 14%Chicago White Sox by 2 runs: 9%Chicago White Sox by 3 runs: 7%Chicago White Sox by 4 runs: 5%Chicago White Sox by 5 runs: 4%Chicago White Sox by 6 runs: 3%Chicago White Sox by 7 runs: 2%Chicago White Sox by 8 runs: 1%Chicago White Sox by 9 runs: 1%Chicago White Sox by 10 runs: 1%Chicago White Sox by 11 runs: <1%Chicago White Sox by 12 runs: <1%Chicago White Sox by 13 runs: <1%
← BAL wins byCHW wins by →
Baltimore Orioles wins by 2 or more39%
Baltimore Orioles wins by 3 or more29%
Chicago White Sox wins by 2 or more33%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.9 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.569%
Total over 8.549%
Total over 10.532%
Total from 7 to 1036%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
BALTrevor Rogers SP · last 3 starts: 16.0 IP, 4.50 ERA, 11 Kstarted
CHWShane Smith SP · last 3 starts: 10.2 IP, 8.44 ERA, 11 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
BAL·CHW
Apr 6 at CHW
last game
Apr 6 vs BAL
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
5th straight road game
home / road
5th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 10+ games
BAL·CHW
−0.07
rating (0 = average)
−0.31
3.6
runs / game
3.6
4.4
runs allowed / game
6.1
4−6
season record
4−6
3−3
home record
3−1
1−3
away record
1−5
W1
streak
L1
4−6
last 10
4−6
8.0
hits / game
6.7
0.70
home runs / game
1.00
3.5
walks drawn / game
3.5
9.6
batter strikeouts / game
10.3
8.4
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.6
0.60
errors / game
0.80

Rating Trend

BAL · CHW · 13 days
Baltimore OriolesChicago White Sox
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · CHW 1−9
Apr 6at CHWBAL 2 − 1
Sep 17, 2025at CHWBAL 3 − 1
Sep 16, 2025at CHWBAL 8 − 7
Sep 15, 2025at CHWBAL 4 − 1
Jun 1, 2025at BALBAL 3 − 2
May 31, 2025at BALBAL 4 − 2
May 30, 2025at BALBAL 2 − 1
Sep 4, 2024at BALCHW 8 − 1
Sep 3, 2024at BALBAL 9 − 0
Sep 2, 2024at BALBAL 13 − 3

BAL · Last 10

4−6 · streak W1
Apr 6at CHW2 − 1W
Apr 5at PIT2 − 8L
Apr 4at PIT2 − 3L
Apr 3at PIT4 − 5L
Apr 1vs TEX8 − 3W
Mar 31vs TEX5 − 8L
Mar 30vs TEX2 − 5L
Mar 29vs MIN8 − 6W
Mar 28vs MIN1 − 4L
Mar 26vs MIN2 − 1W

CHW · Last 10

4−6 · streak L1
Apr 6vs BAL1 − 2L
Apr 5vs TOR3 − 0W
Apr 4vs TOR6 − 3W
Apr 3vs TOR5 − 4W
Apr 1at MIA0 − 10L
Mar 31at MIA2 − 9L
Mar 30at MIA9 − 4W
Mar 29at MIL7 − 9L
Mar 28at MIL1 − 6L
Mar 26at MIL2 − 14L