bayesRatings

Royals at Guardians

MLB · Wednesday, Apr 8 · 12:10 PM CT · Progressive Field · Final KC 2 – CLE 10
← MLB / Apr 8

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
KC000110000251
CLE3100100510162
Team box
KC·CLE
5
hits
16
0
home runs
1
3
walks
4
14
strikeouts
9
163
pitches thrown
146
1
errors
2
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Angel MartinezCLE4-5114
Rhys HoskinsCLE3-4101
Jose RamirezCLE2-4101
Chase DeLauterCLE1-5102
Juan BritoCLE2-4101
Bobby Witt Jr.KC2-4001
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Cole Ragans (L)KC0.22312
Joey Cantillo (W)CLE5.23129
Matt Festa (S)CLE1.10011

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CLE +8
KC +8
123456789
largest lead: CLE 8 · KC 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was KC 47%, CLE 53% · Updated Apr 8

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
CLE 3.7 – 3.4 KC
Expected total
7.1
RoyalsThe matchupGuardians
+115Our fair odds−115
3.4Expected runs3.7
+0.03Power rating+0.07
3.9Runs / game3.0
4.3Allowed / game3.4
7.7Hits / game6.2
1.00Home runs / game0.92
4.1Walks drawn / game3.4
5−6Season record7−5
5−5Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
KC chance · CLE chance
Our model fair46.6%53.4%
Kalshi56.7%48.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 12:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
KCKansas City Royals+11547%−13156.7%———
CLECleveland Guardians−11553%+10548.7%———
Spreadabout even
KCKansas City Royals+0.3our margin————
CLECleveland Guardians−0.3our margin————
Totalwe expect 7.1
Over7.1our total————
Under7.1our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Kansas City Royals by 11 runs: <1%Kansas City Royals by 10 runs: <1%Kansas City Royals by 9 runs: <1%Kansas City Royals by 8 runs: 1%Kansas City Royals by 7 runs: 1%Kansas City Royals by 6 runs: 2%Kansas City Royals by 5 runs: 3%Kansas City Royals by 4 runs: 5%Kansas City Royals by 3 runs: 7%Kansas City Royals by 2 runs: 10%Kansas City Royals by 1 run: 16%Cleveland Guardians by 1 run: 17%Cleveland Guardians by 2 runs: 11%Cleveland Guardians by 3 runs: 8%Cleveland Guardians by 4 runs: 6%Cleveland Guardians by 5 runs: 4%Cleveland Guardians by 6 runs: 3%Cleveland Guardians by 7 runs: 2%Cleveland Guardians by 8 runs: 1%Cleveland Guardians by 9 runs: 1%Cleveland Guardians by 10 runs: <1%Cleveland Guardians by 11 runs: <1%
← KC wins byCLE wins by →
Cleveland Guardians wins by 2 or more36%
Cleveland Guardians wins by 3 or more25%
Kansas City Royals wins by 2 or more31%
Decided by one run33%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

7.1 expected
1 runs: 3%2 runs: 3%3 runs: 11%4 runs: 7%5 runs: 14%6 runs: 9%7 runs: 13%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 9%10 runs: 5%11 runs: 6%12 runs: 3%13 runs: 3%14 runs: 2%15 runs: 1%16 runs: 1%17 runs: 1%18 runs: <1%19 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 5.561%
Total over 7.539%
Total over 9.522%
Total from 6 to 939%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
KCCole Ragans SP · last 3 starts: 14.1 IP, 2.51 ERA, 21 Kstarted
CLEJoey Cantillo SP · last 3 starts: 14.2 IP, 3.07 ERA, 19 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
KC·CLE
Apr 7 at CLE
last game
Apr 7 vs KC
0 days
days of rest
0 days
7
games in last 7 days
6
3rd straight road game
home / road
6th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 11+ games
KC·CLE
+0.03
rating (0 = average)
+0.07
3.9
runs / game
3.0
4.3
runs allowed / game
3.4
5−6
season record
7−5
3−3
home record
3−2
2−3
away record
4−3
L1
streak
W1
5−5
last 10
6−4
7.7
hits / game
6.2
1.00
home runs / game
0.92
4.1
walks drawn / game
3.4
8.5
batter strikeouts / game
8.1
9.1
pitcher strikeouts / game
10.6
0.36
errors / game
0.08

Rating Trend

KC · CLE · 14 days
Kansas City RoyalsCleveland Guardians
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · CLE 5−5
Apr 7at CLECLE 2 − 1
Apr 6at CLEKC 4 − 2
Sep 11, 2025at CLECLE 3 − 2
Sep 10, 2025at CLEKC 4 − 3
Sep 9, 2025at CLECLE 2 − 0
Sep 8, 2025at CLECLE 10 − 2
Jul 27, 2025at KCKC 4 − 1
Jul 26, 2025at KCCLE 6 − 4
Jul 26, 2025at KCKC 5 − 3
Apr 13, 2025at CLEKC 4 − 2

KC · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
Apr 7at CLE1 − 2L
Apr 6at CLE4 − 2W
Apr 5vs MIL5 − 8L
Apr 4vs MIL8 − 2W
Apr 4vs MIL2 − 5L
Apr 2vs MIN1 − 5L
Apr 1vs MIN13 − 9W
Mar 30vs MIN3 − 1W
Mar 29at ATL4 − 1W
Mar 28at ATL2 − 6L

CLE · Last 10

6−4 · streak W1
Apr 7vs KC2 − 1W
Apr 6vs KC2 − 4L
Apr 5vs CHC6 − 5W
Apr 5vs CHC0 − 1L
Apr 3vs CHC4 − 1W
Apr 1at LAD4 − 1W
Mar 31at LAD1 − 4L
Mar 30at LAD4 − 2W
Mar 29at SEA0 − 8L
Mar 28at SEA6 − 5W