bayesRatings

Cubs at Guardians

MLB · Sunday, Apr 5 · 12:10 PM CT · Progressive Field · Final CHC 1 – CLE 0
← MLB / Apr 5

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
CHC000000010120
CLE000000000010
Team box
CHC·CLE
2
hits
1
0
home runs
0
2
walks
6
10
strikeouts
5
152
pitches thrown
136
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Miguel AmayaCHC1-2001
Michael ConfortoCHC1-2000
CJ KayfusCLE1-2000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Edward CabreraCHC5.21054
Caleb Thielbar (W)CHC1.10010
Daniel Palencia (S)CHC1.00001
Slade CecconiCLE6.01016
Connor Brogdon (L)CLE1.01110

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CLE +3
CHC +3
123456789
largest lead: CLE 0 · CHC 1lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was CHC 49%, CLE 51% · Updated Apr 5

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
CHC 3.8 – 3.5 CLE
Expected total
7.3
CubsThe matchupGuardians
+105Our fair odds−105
3.8Expected runs3.5
+0.13Power rating+0.08
4.4Runs / game3.2
4.0Allowed / game3.8
7.1Hits / game6.5
0.86Home runs / game1.00
4.6Walks drawn / game3.0
3−4Season record5−3
5−5Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
CHC chance · CLE chance
Our model fair48.8%51.2%
Kalshi57.7%47.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 12:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
CHCChicago Cubs+10549%−13757.7%———
CLECleveland Guardians−10551%+10947.7%———
Spreadabout even
CHCChicago Cubs−0.3our margin————
CLECleveland Guardians+0.3our margin————
Totalwe expect 7.3
Over7.3our total————
Under7.3our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Chicago Cubs by 11 runs: <1%Chicago Cubs by 10 runs: 1%Chicago Cubs by 9 runs: 1%Chicago Cubs by 8 runs: 1%Chicago Cubs by 7 runs: 2%Chicago Cubs by 6 runs: 3%Chicago Cubs by 5 runs: 4%Chicago Cubs by 4 runs: 6%Chicago Cubs by 3 runs: 8%Chicago Cubs by 2 runs: 11%Chicago Cubs by 1 run: 13%Cleveland Guardians by 1 run: 20%Cleveland Guardians by 2 runs: 10%Cleveland Guardians by 3 runs: 7%Cleveland Guardians by 4 runs: 5%Cleveland Guardians by 5 runs: 3%Cleveland Guardians by 6 runs: 2%Cleveland Guardians by 7 runs: 1%Cleveland Guardians by 8 runs: 1%Cleveland Guardians by 9 runs: <1%Cleveland Guardians by 10 runs: <1%Cleveland Guardians by 11 runs: <1%
← CHC wins byCLE wins by →
Chicago Cubs wins by 2 or more37%
Chicago Cubs wins by 3 or more26%
Cleveland Guardians wins by 2 or more30%
Decided by one run32%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

7.3 expected
1 runs: 3%2 runs: 3%3 runs: 10%4 runs: 7%5 runs: 14%6 runs: 9%7 runs: 13%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 5%11 runs: 6%12 runs: 3%13 runs: 3%14 runs: 2%15 runs: 2%16 runs: 1%17 runs: 1%18 runs: <1%19 runs: <1%20 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 5.563%
Total over 7.541%
Total over 9.524%
Total from 6 to 939%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
CHCEdward Cabrera SP · last 3 starts: 15.0 IP, 1.80 ERA, 15 Kstarted
CLESlade Cecconi SP · last 3 starts: 10.2 IP, 9.28 ERA, 11 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
CHC·CLE
Apr 3 at CLE
last game
Apr 3 vs CHC
1 day
days of rest
1 day
5
games in last 7 days
5
2nd straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 7+ games
CHC·CLE
+0.13
rating (0 = average)
+0.08
4.4
runs / game
3.2
4.0
runs allowed / game
3.8
3−4
season record
5−3
3−3
home record
1−0
0−1
away record
4−3
L1
streak
W2
5−5
last 10
6−4
7.1
hits / game
6.5
0.86
home runs / game
1.00
4.6
walks drawn / game
3.0
8.4
batter strikeouts / game
9.4
9.4
pitcher strikeouts / game
10.4
0.43
errors / game
0.12

Rating Trend

CHC · CLE · 11 days
Chicago CubsCleveland Guardians
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · CLE 6−4
Apr 3at CLECLE 4 − 1
Jul 3, 2025at CHCCHC 1 − 0
Jul 2, 2025at CHCCHC 5 − 4
Jul 1, 2025at CHCCHC 5 − 2
Aug 14, 2024at CLECLE 6 − 1
Aug 13, 2024at CLECLE 2 − 1
Aug 12, 2024at CLECLE 9 − 8
Jul 2, 2023at CHCCLE 8 − 6
Jul 1, 2023at CHCCLE 6 − 0
Jun 30, 2023at CHCCHC 10 − 1

CHC · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
Apr 3at CLE1 − 4L
Apr 1vs LAA6 − 2W
Mar 31vs LAA0 − 2L
Mar 30vs LAA7 − 2W
Mar 29vs WSH3 − 6L
Mar 28vs WSH10 − 2W
Mar 26vs WSH4 − 10L
Oct 11, 2025at MIL1 − 3L
Oct 9, 2025vs MIL6 − 0W
Oct 8, 2025vs MIL4 − 3W

CLE · Last 10

6−4 · streak W2
Apr 3vs CHC4 − 1W
Apr 1at LAD4 − 1W
Mar 31at LAD1 − 4L
Mar 30at LAD4 − 2W
Mar 29at SEA0 − 8L
Mar 28at SEA6 − 5W
Mar 27at SEA1 − 5L
Mar 26at SEA6 − 4W
Oct 2, 2025vs DET3 − 6L
Oct 1, 2025vs DET6 − 1W