bayesRatings

Angels at Cubs

MLB · Wednesday, Apr 1 · 1:20 PM CT · Wrigley Field · Final LAA 2 – CHC 6
← MLB / Apr 1

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
LAA000002000242
CHC005000106101
Team box
LAA·CHC
4
hits
10
0
home runs
0
2
walks
5
16
strikeouts
10
156
pitches thrown
140
2
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Nico HoernerCHC3-5101
Matt ShawCHC2-4002
Alex BregmanCHC1-3001
Michael BuschCHC2-3100
Pete Crow-ArmstrongCHC1-4001
Jo AdellLAA1-4001
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Yusei Kikuchi (L)LAA5.16545
Matthew Boyd (W)CHC5.221210

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CHC +5
LAA +5
123456789
largest lead: CHC 5 · LAA 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was LAA 40%, CHC 60% · Updated Apr 1

Expected margin
CHC by 1.6
Expected score
CHC 5.2 – 3.7 LAA
Expected total
8.9
AngelsThe matchupCubs
+149Our fair odds−149
3.7Expected runs5.2
−0.19Power rating+0.13
4.8Runs / game4.8
4.8Allowed / game4.4
7.2Hits / game7.0
1.67Home runs / game1.20
6.0Walks drawn / game5.0
3−3Season record2−3
4−6Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
LAA chance · CHC chance
Our model fair40.2%59.8%
Kalshi43.7%61.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 1:20 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
LAALos Angeles Angels+14940%+12943.7%———
CHCChicago Cubs−14960%−16161.7%———
SpreadCHC by 1.6
LAALos Angeles Angels+1.6our margin————
CHCChicago Cubs−1.6our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.9
Over8.9our total————
Under8.9our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Chicago Cubs by 1.6 expected
Los Angeles Angels by 15 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 14 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 13 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 12 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 11 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 10 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 9 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 8 runs: 1%Los Angeles Angels by 7 runs: 1%Los Angeles Angels by 6 runs: 2%Los Angeles Angels by 5 runs: 2%Los Angeles Angels by 4 runs: 4%Los Angeles Angels by 3 runs: 5%Los Angeles Angels by 2 runs: 8%Los Angeles Angels by 1 run: 16%Chicago Cubs by 1 run: 11%Chicago Cubs by 2 runs: 11%Chicago Cubs by 3 runs: 9%Chicago Cubs by 4 runs: 7%Chicago Cubs by 5 runs: 6%Chicago Cubs by 6 runs: 5%Chicago Cubs by 7 runs: 4%Chicago Cubs by 8 runs: 3%Chicago Cubs by 9 runs: 2%Chicago Cubs by 10 runs: 1%Chicago Cubs by 11 runs: 1%Chicago Cubs by 12 runs: 1%Chicago Cubs by 13 runs: <1%Chicago Cubs by 14 runs: <1%Chicago Cubs by 15 runs: <1%
← LAA wins byCHC wins by →
Chicago Cubs wins by 2 or more50%
Chicago Cubs wins by 3 or more39%
Los Angeles Angels wins by 2 or more23%
Decided by one run27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.9 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.568%
Total over 8.549%
Total over 10.532%
Total from 7 to 1036%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
LAAYusei Kikuchi SP · last 3 starts: 15.0 IP, 3.00 ERA, 11 Kstarted
CHCMatthew Boyd SP · last 3 starts: 9.0 IP, 8.00 ERA, 14 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
LAA·CHC
Mar 31 at CHC
last game
Mar 31 vs LAA
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
5
7th straight road game
home / road
6th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 5+ games
LAA·CHC
−0.19
rating (0 = average)
+0.13
4.8
runs / game
4.8
4.8
runs allowed / game
4.4
3−3
season record
2−3
0−0
home record
2−3
3−3
away record
0−0
W1
streak
L1
4−6
last 10
4−6
7.2
hits / game
7.0
1.67
home runs / game
1.20
6.0
walks drawn / game
5.0
10.7
batter strikeouts / game
7.8
8.3
pitcher strikeouts / game
9.0
1.17
errors / game
0.20

Rating Trend

LAA · CHC · 7 days
Los Angeles AngelsChicago Cubs
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · CHC 6−4
Mar 31at CHCLAA 2 − 0
Mar 30at CHCCHC 7 − 2
Aug 24, 2025at LAACHC 4 − 3
Aug 23, 2025at LAACHC 12 − 1
Aug 22, 2025at LAACHC 3 − 2
Jul 7, 2024at CHCCHC 5 − 0
Jul 6, 2024at CHCLAA 7 − 0
Jul 5, 2024at CHCCHC 5 − 1
Jun 8, 2023at LAALAA 3 − 1
Jun 7, 2023at LAALAA 6 − 2

LAA · Last 10

4−6 · streak W1
Mar 31at CHC2 − 0W
Mar 30at CHC2 − 7L
Mar 29at HOU7 − 9L
Mar 28at HOU9 − 11L
Mar 27at HOU6 − 2W
Mar 26at HOU3 − 0W
Sep 28, 2025vs HOU2 − 6L
Sep 27, 2025vs HOU1 − 6L
Sep 26, 2025vs HOU4 − 3W
Sep 25, 2025vs KC4 − 9L

CHC · Last 10

4−6 · streak L1
Mar 31vs LAA0 − 2L
Mar 30vs LAA7 − 2W
Mar 29vs WSH3 − 6L
Mar 28vs WSH10 − 2W
Mar 26vs WSH4 − 10L
Oct 11, 2025at MIL1 − 3L
Oct 9, 2025vs MIL6 − 0W
Oct 8, 2025vs MIL4 − 3W
Oct 6, 2025at MIL3 − 7L
Oct 4, 2025at MIL3 − 9L