bayesRatings

Angels at Cubs

MLB · Tuesday, Mar 31 · 6:40 PM CT · Wrigley Field · Final LAA 2 – CHC 0
← MLB / Mar 31

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
LAA000002000251
CHC000000000040
Team box
LAA·CHC
5
hits
4
0
home runs
0
7
walks
4
9
strikeouts
8
136
pitches thrown
166
1
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Logan O'HoppeLAA1-3002
Oswald PerazaLAA2-3000
Carson KellyCHC1-1000
Miguel AmayaCHC1-3000
Nico HoernerCHC1-4000
Moises BallesterosCHC1-2000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Jose Soriano (W)LAA6.02024
Jordan Romano (S)LAA0.20011
Jameson TaillonCHC4.22043
Phil Maton (L)CHC0.22221

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CHC +3
LAA +3
123456789
largest lead: CHC 0 · LAA 2lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was LAA 40%, CHC 60% · Updated Mar 31

Expected margin
CHC by 1.7
Expected score
CHC 5.4 – 3.7 LAA
Expected total
9.1
AngelsThe matchupCubs
+153Our fair odds−153
3.7Expected runs5.4
−0.20Power rating+0.14
5.4Runs / game6.0
5.8Allowed / game5.0
7.6Hits / game7.8
2.00Home runs / game1.50
5.8Walks drawn / game5.2
2−3Season record2−2
4−6Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
LAA chance · CHC chance
Our model fair39.5%60.5%
Kalshi45.7%58.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
LAALos Angeles Angels+15340%+11945.7%———
CHCChicago Cubs−15360%−14258.7%———
SpreadCHC by 1.7
LAALos Angeles Angels+1.7our margin————
CHCChicago Cubs−1.7our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.1
Over9.1our total————
Under9.1our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Chicago Cubs by 1.7 expected
Los Angeles Angels by 16 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 15 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 14 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 13 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 12 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 11 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 10 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 9 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 8 runs: 1%Los Angeles Angels by 7 runs: 1%Los Angeles Angels by 6 runs: 2%Los Angeles Angels by 5 runs: 2%Los Angeles Angels by 4 runs: 4%Los Angeles Angels by 3 runs: 5%Los Angeles Angels by 2 runs: 8%Los Angeles Angels by 1 run: 15%Chicago Cubs by 1 run: 11%Chicago Cubs by 2 runs: 11%Chicago Cubs by 3 runs: 9%Chicago Cubs by 4 runs: 7%Chicago Cubs by 5 runs: 6%Chicago Cubs by 6 runs: 5%Chicago Cubs by 7 runs: 4%Chicago Cubs by 8 runs: 3%Chicago Cubs by 9 runs: 2%Chicago Cubs by 10 runs: 2%Chicago Cubs by 11 runs: 1%Chicago Cubs by 12 runs: 1%Chicago Cubs by 13 runs: 1%Chicago Cubs by 14 runs: <1%Chicago Cubs by 15 runs: <1%Chicago Cubs by 16 runs: <1%
← LAA wins byCHC wins by →
Chicago Cubs wins by 2 or more51%
Chicago Cubs wins by 3 or more40%
Los Angeles Angels wins by 2 or more23%
Decided by one run26%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.1 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.558%
Total over 9.540%
Total over 11.526%
Total from 8 to 1132%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
LAAJose Soriano SP · last 3 starts: 11.1 IP, 4.76 ERA, 11 Kstarted
CHCJameson Taillon SP · last 3 starts: 14.0 IP, 1.93 ERA, 15 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
LAA·CHC
Mar 30 at CHC
last game
Mar 30 vs LAA
0 days
days of rest
0 days
5
games in last 7 days
4
6th straight road game
home / road
5th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 4+ games
LAA·CHC
−0.20
rating (0 = average)
+0.14
5.4
runs / game
6.0
5.8
runs allowed / game
5.0
2−3
season record
2−2
0−0
home record
2−2
2−3
away record
0−0
L3
streak
W1
4−6
last 10
5−5
7.6
hits / game
7.8
2.00
home runs / game
1.50
5.8
walks drawn / game
5.2
11.0
batter strikeouts / game
7.8
8.4
pitcher strikeouts / game
9.0
1.20
errors / game
0.25

Rating Trend

LAA · CHC · 6 days
Los Angeles AngelsChicago Cubs
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · CHC 6−4
Mar 30at CHCCHC 7 − 2
Aug 24, 2025at LAACHC 4 − 3
Aug 23, 2025at LAACHC 12 − 1
Aug 22, 2025at LAACHC 3 − 2
Jul 7, 2024at CHCCHC 5 − 0
Jul 6, 2024at CHCLAA 7 − 0
Jul 5, 2024at CHCCHC 5 − 1
Jun 8, 2023at LAALAA 3 − 1
Jun 7, 2023at LAALAA 6 − 2
Jun 6, 2023at LAALAA 7 − 4

LAA · Last 10

4−6 · streak L3
Mar 30at CHC2 − 7L
Mar 29at HOU7 − 9L
Mar 28at HOU9 − 11L
Mar 27at HOU6 − 2W
Mar 26at HOU3 − 0W
Sep 28, 2025vs HOU2 − 6L
Sep 27, 2025vs HOU1 − 6L
Sep 26, 2025vs HOU4 − 3W
Sep 25, 2025vs KC4 − 9L
Sep 24, 2025vs KC3 − 2W

CHC · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
Mar 30vs LAA7 − 2W
Mar 29vs WSH3 − 6L
Mar 28vs WSH10 − 2W
Mar 26vs WSH4 − 10L
Oct 11, 2025at MIL1 − 3L
Oct 9, 2025vs MIL6 − 0W
Oct 8, 2025vs MIL4 − 3W
Oct 6, 2025at MIL3 − 7L
Oct 4, 2025at MIL3 − 9L
Oct 2, 2025vs SD3 − 1W