bayesRatings

Angels at Cubs

MLB · Monday, Mar 30 · 6:40 PM CT · Wrigley Field · Final LAA 2 – CHC 7
← MLB / Mar 30

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
LAA000000200250
CHC30300010790
Team box
LAA·CHC
5
hits
9
1
home runs
1
1
walks
7
9
strikeouts
5
149
pitches thrown
122
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Yoan MoncadaLAA1-3112
Ian HappCHC1-4211
Carson KellyCHC1-4002
Dansby SwansonCHC2-3001
Moises BallesterosCHC1-4002
Nico HoernerCHC1-2201
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Ryan Johnson (L)LAA3.17642
Edward Cabrera (W)CHC6.01015
Colin Rea (S)CHC3.04204

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CHC +6
LAA +6
123456789
largest lead: CHC 6 · LAA 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was LAA 40%, CHC 60% · Updated Mar 30

Expected margin
CHC by 1.6
Expected score
CHC 5.3 – 3.8 LAA
Expected total
9.1
AngelsThe matchupCubs
+151Our fair odds−151
3.8Expected runs5.3
−0.19Power rating+0.13
6.2Runs / game5.7
5.5Allowed / game6.0
8.2Hits / game7.3
2.25Home runs / game1.67
7.0Walks drawn / game4.7
2−2Season record1−2
4−6Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
LAA chance · CHC chance
Our model fair39.8%60.2%
Kalshi38.6%65.6%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
LAALos Angeles Angels+15140%+15938.6%———
CHCChicago Cubs−15160%−19165.6%———
SpreadCHC by 1.6
LAALos Angeles Angels+1.6our margin————
CHCChicago Cubs−1.6our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.1
Over9.1our total————
Under9.1our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Chicago Cubs by 1.6 expected
Los Angeles Angels by 16 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 15 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 14 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 13 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 12 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 11 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 10 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 9 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 8 runs: 1%Los Angeles Angels by 7 runs: 1%Los Angeles Angels by 6 runs: 2%Los Angeles Angels by 5 runs: 3%Los Angeles Angels by 4 runs: 4%Los Angeles Angels by 3 runs: 5%Los Angeles Angels by 2 runs: 8%Los Angeles Angels by 1 run: 16%Chicago Cubs by 1 run: 11%Chicago Cubs by 2 runs: 11%Chicago Cubs by 3 runs: 9%Chicago Cubs by 4 runs: 7%Chicago Cubs by 5 runs: 6%Chicago Cubs by 6 runs: 5%Chicago Cubs by 7 runs: 4%Chicago Cubs by 8 runs: 3%Chicago Cubs by 9 runs: 2%Chicago Cubs by 10 runs: 1%Chicago Cubs by 11 runs: 1%Chicago Cubs by 12 runs: 1%Chicago Cubs by 13 runs: 1%Chicago Cubs by 14 runs: <1%Chicago Cubs by 15 runs: <1%Chicago Cubs by 16 runs: <1%
← LAA wins byCHC wins by →
Chicago Cubs wins by 2 or more50%
Chicago Cubs wins by 3 or more39%
Los Angeles Angels wins by 2 or more24%
Decided by one run26%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.1 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.558%
Total over 9.540%
Total over 11.526%
Total from 8 to 1132%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
LAARyan Johnson SP · no recent starts on recordstarted
CHCEdward Cabrera SP · last 3 starts: 13.0 IP, 5.54 ERA, 14 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
LAA·CHC
Mar 29 at HOU
last game
Mar 29 vs WSH
0 days
days of rest
0 days
4
games in last 7 days
3
5th straight road game
home / road
4th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 3+ games
LAA·CHC
−0.19
rating (0 = average)
+0.13
6.2
runs / game
5.7
5.5
runs allowed / game
6.0
2−2
season record
1−2
0−0
home record
1−2
2−2
away record
0−0
L2
streak
L1
4−6
last 10
4−6
8.2
hits / game
7.3
2.25
home runs / game
1.67
7.0
walks drawn / game
4.7
11.5
batter strikeouts / game
8.7
9.2
pitcher strikeouts / game
9.0
1.50
errors / game
0.33

Rating Trend

LAA · CHC · 5 days
Los Angeles AngelsChicago Cubs
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 9 meetings · CHC 5−4
Aug 24, 2025at LAACHC 4 − 3
Aug 23, 2025at LAACHC 12 − 1
Aug 22, 2025at LAACHC 3 − 2
Jul 7, 2024at CHCCHC 5 − 0
Jul 6, 2024at CHCLAA 7 − 0
Jul 5, 2024at CHCCHC 5 − 1
Jun 8, 2023at LAALAA 3 − 1
Jun 7, 2023at LAALAA 6 − 2
Jun 6, 2023at LAALAA 7 − 4

LAA · Last 10

4−6 · streak L2
Mar 29at HOU7 − 9L
Mar 28at HOU9 − 11L
Mar 27at HOU6 − 2W
Mar 26at HOU3 − 0W
Sep 28, 2025vs HOU2 − 6L
Sep 27, 2025vs HOU1 − 6L
Sep 26, 2025vs HOU4 − 3W
Sep 25, 2025vs KC4 − 9L
Sep 24, 2025vs KC3 − 2W
Sep 23, 2025vs KC4 − 8L

CHC · Last 10

4−6 · streak L1
Mar 29vs WSH3 − 6L
Mar 28vs WSH10 − 2W
Mar 26vs WSH4 − 10L
Oct 11, 2025at MIL1 − 3L
Oct 9, 2025vs MIL6 − 0W
Oct 8, 2025vs MIL4 − 3W
Oct 6, 2025at MIL3 − 7L
Oct 4, 2025at MIL3 − 9L
Oct 2, 2025vs SD3 − 1W
Oct 1, 2025vs SD0 − 3L