bayesRatings

Cubs at Guardians

MLB · Friday, Apr 3 · 3:10 PM CT · Progressive Field · Final CHC 1 – CLE 4
← MLB / Apr 3

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
CHC001000000151
CLE00001030490
Team box
CHC·CLE
5
hits
9
0
home runs
2
2
walks
4
10
strikeouts
5
143
pitches thrown
134
1
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Chase DeLauterCLE3-4113
Gabriel AriasCLE1-2111
Carson KellyCHC2-4000
Miguel AmayaCHC1-2001
Jose RamirezCLE2-4000
Alex BregmanCHC1-4000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Cade HortonCHC1.00010
Hunter Harvey (L)CHC0.22310
Joey CantilloCLE5.14126
Connor Brogdon (W)CLE1.00000
Cade Smith (S)CLE1.01003

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CLE +3
CHC +3
123456789
largest lead: CLE 3 · CHC 1lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was CHC 49%, CLE 51% · Updated Apr 3

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
CHC 4.0 – 3.5 CLE
Expected total
7.5
CubsThe matchupGuardians
+103Our fair odds−103
4.0Expected runs3.5
+0.14Power rating+0.07
5.0Runs / game3.1
4.0Allowed / game4.1
7.5Hits / game6.1
1.00Home runs / game0.86
5.0Walks drawn / game2.9
3−3Season record4−3
5−5Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
CHC chance · CLE chance
Our model fair49.4%50.6%
Kalshi53.7%51.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 3:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
CHCChicago Cubs+10349%−11653.7%———
CLECleveland Guardians−10351%−10751.8%———
Spreadabout even
CHCChicago Cubs−0.4our margin————
CLECleveland Guardians+0.4our margin————
Totalwe expect 7.5
Over7.5our total————
Under7.5our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Chicago Cubs by 12 runs: <1%Chicago Cubs by 11 runs: <1%Chicago Cubs by 10 runs: 1%Chicago Cubs by 9 runs: 1%Chicago Cubs by 8 runs: 1%Chicago Cubs by 7 runs: 2%Chicago Cubs by 6 runs: 3%Chicago Cubs by 5 runs: 4%Chicago Cubs by 4 runs: 6%Chicago Cubs by 3 runs: 8%Chicago Cubs by 2 runs: 11%Chicago Cubs by 1 run: 12%Cleveland Guardians by 1 run: 19%Cleveland Guardians by 2 runs: 10%Cleveland Guardians by 3 runs: 7%Cleveland Guardians by 4 runs: 5%Cleveland Guardians by 5 runs: 3%Cleveland Guardians by 6 runs: 2%Cleveland Guardians by 7 runs: 1%Cleveland Guardians by 8 runs: 1%Cleveland Guardians by 9 runs: 1%Cleveland Guardians by 10 runs: <1%Cleveland Guardians by 11 runs: <1%Cleveland Guardians by 12 runs: <1%
← CHC wins byCLE wins by →
Chicago Cubs wins by 2 or more39%
Chicago Cubs wins by 3 or more27%
Cleveland Guardians wins by 2 or more30%
Decided by one run32%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

7.5 expected
1 runs: 3%2 runs: 3%3 runs: 9%4 runs: 7%5 runs: 13%6 runs: 9%7 runs: 13%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 6%12 runs: 3%13 runs: 4%14 runs: 2%15 runs: 2%16 runs: 1%17 runs: 1%18 runs: <1%19 runs: <1%20 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 5.565%
Total over 7.544%
Total over 9.526%
Total from 6 to 939%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
CHCCade Horton SP · last 3 starts: 14.1 IP, 2.51 ERA, 12 Kstarted
CLEJoey Cantillo SP · last 3 starts: 13.2 IP, 3.29 ERA, 18 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
CHC·CLE
Apr 1 vs LAA
last game
Apr 1 at LAD
1 day
days of rest
1 day
5
games in last 7 days
6
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 6+ games
CHC·CLE
+0.14
rating (0 = average)
+0.07
5.0
runs / game
3.1
4.0
runs allowed / game
4.1
3−3
season record
4−3
3−3
home record
0−0
0−0
away record
4−3
W1
streak
W1
5−5
last 10
5−5
7.5
hits / game
6.1
1.00
home runs / game
0.86
5.0
walks drawn / game
2.9
8.2
batter strikeouts / game
10.0
10.2
pitcher strikeouts / game
10.4
0.33
errors / game
0.14

Rating Trend

CHC · CLE · 9 days
Chicago CubsCleveland Guardians
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · CLE 5−5
Jul 3, 2025at CHCCHC 1 − 0
Jul 2, 2025at CHCCHC 5 − 4
Jul 1, 2025at CHCCHC 5 − 2
Aug 14, 2024at CLECLE 6 − 1
Aug 13, 2024at CLECLE 2 − 1
Aug 12, 2024at CLECLE 9 − 8
Jul 2, 2023at CHCCLE 8 − 6
Jul 1, 2023at CHCCLE 6 − 0
Jun 30, 2023at CHCCHC 10 − 1
Jun 22, 2021at CHCCHC 7 − 1

CHC · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
Apr 1vs LAA6 − 2W
Mar 31vs LAA0 − 2L
Mar 30vs LAA7 − 2W
Mar 29vs WSH3 − 6L
Mar 28vs WSH10 − 2W
Mar 26vs WSH4 − 10L
Oct 11, 2025at MIL1 − 3L
Oct 9, 2025vs MIL6 − 0W
Oct 8, 2025vs MIL4 − 3W
Oct 6, 2025at MIL3 − 7L

CLE · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
Apr 1at LAD4 − 1W
Mar 31at LAD1 − 4L
Mar 30at LAD4 − 2W
Mar 29at SEA0 − 8L
Mar 28at SEA6 − 5W
Mar 27at SEA1 − 5L
Mar 26at SEA6 − 4W
Oct 2, 2025vs DET3 − 6L
Oct 1, 2025vs DET6 − 1W
Sep 30, 2025vs DET1 − 2L