bayesRatings

Royals at Guardians

MLB · Monday, Apr 6 · 5:10 PM CT · Progressive Field · Final KC 4 – CLE 2
← MLB / Apr 6

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
KC0001010204110
CLE001000010240
Team box
KC·CLE
11
hits
4
2
home runs
2
2
walks
4
8
strikeouts
5
140
pitches thrown
157
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Jonathan IndiaKC2-4113
Steven KwanCLE2-4111
Carter JensenKC2-4211
Brayan RocchioCLE1-3111
Bobby Witt Jr.KC2-4000
Maikel GarciaKC2-5000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Michael Wacha (W)KC7.03133
Lucas Erceg (S)KC1.00001
Tanner BibeeCLE4.25113
Peyton Pallette (L)CLE2.03103

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CLE +3
KC +3
123456789
largest lead: CLE 1 · KC 3lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was KC 47%, CLE 53% · Updated Apr 6

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
CLE 3.7 – 3.4 KC
Expected total
7.1
RoyalsThe matchupGuardians
+115Our fair odds−115
3.4Expected runs3.7
+0.03Power rating+0.08
4.2Runs / game3.2
4.8Allowed / game3.6
8.1Hits / game6.2
0.89Home runs / game0.90
3.9Walks drawn / game3.4
4−5Season record6−4
5−5Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
KC chance · CLE chance
Our model fair46.6%53.4%
Kalshi49.7%54.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 5:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
KCKansas City Royals+11547%+10149.7%———
CLECleveland Guardians−11553%−12154.7%———
Spreadabout even
KCKansas City Royals+0.3our margin————
CLECleveland Guardians−0.3our margin————
Totalwe expect 7.1
Over7.1our total————
Under7.1our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Kansas City Royals by 11 runs: <1%Kansas City Royals by 10 runs: <1%Kansas City Royals by 9 runs: <1%Kansas City Royals by 8 runs: 1%Kansas City Royals by 7 runs: 1%Kansas City Royals by 6 runs: 2%Kansas City Royals by 5 runs: 3%Kansas City Royals by 4 runs: 5%Kansas City Royals by 3 runs: 7%Kansas City Royals by 2 runs: 10%Kansas City Royals by 1 run: 16%Cleveland Guardians by 1 run: 17%Cleveland Guardians by 2 runs: 11%Cleveland Guardians by 3 runs: 8%Cleveland Guardians by 4 runs: 6%Cleveland Guardians by 5 runs: 4%Cleveland Guardians by 6 runs: 3%Cleveland Guardians by 7 runs: 2%Cleveland Guardians by 8 runs: 1%Cleveland Guardians by 9 runs: 1%Cleveland Guardians by 10 runs: <1%Cleveland Guardians by 11 runs: <1%
← KC wins byCLE wins by →
Cleveland Guardians wins by 2 or more36%
Cleveland Guardians wins by 3 or more25%
Kansas City Royals wins by 2 or more31%
Decided by one run33%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

7.1 expected
1 runs: 3%2 runs: 3%3 runs: 11%4 runs: 7%5 runs: 14%6 runs: 9%7 runs: 13%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 9%10 runs: 5%11 runs: 6%12 runs: 3%13 runs: 3%14 runs: 2%15 runs: 1%16 runs: 1%17 runs: 1%18 runs: <1%19 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 5.561%
Total over 7.539%
Total over 9.522%
Total from 6 to 939%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
KCMichael Wacha SP · last 3 starts: 17.0 IP, 3.18 ERA, 16 Kstarted
CLETanner Bibee SP · last 3 starts: 13.2 IP, 3.29 ERA, 17 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
KC·CLE
Apr 5 vs MIL
last game
Apr 5 vs CHC
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
road after a home game
home / road
4th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 9+ games
KC·CLE
+0.03
rating (0 = average)
+0.08
4.2
runs / game
3.2
4.8
runs allowed / game
3.6
4−5
season record
6−4
3−3
home record
2−1
1−2
away record
4−3
L1
streak
W1
5−5
last 10
6−4
8.1
hits / game
6.2
0.89
home runs / game
0.90
3.9
walks drawn / game
3.4
8.0
batter strikeouts / game
8.4
9.7
pitcher strikeouts / game
10.5
0.33
errors / game
0.10

Rating Trend

KC · CLE · 12 days
Kansas City RoyalsCleveland Guardians
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · CLE 6−4
Sep 11, 2025at CLECLE 3 − 2
Sep 10, 2025at CLEKC 4 − 3
Sep 9, 2025at CLECLE 2 − 0
Sep 8, 2025at CLECLE 10 − 2
Jul 27, 2025at KCKC 4 − 1
Jul 26, 2025at KCCLE 6 − 4
Jul 26, 2025at KCKC 5 − 3
Apr 13, 2025at CLEKC 4 − 2
Apr 12, 2025at CLECLE 6 − 3
Apr 11, 2025at CLECLE 7 − 0

KC · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
Apr 5vs MIL5 − 8L
Apr 4vs MIL8 − 2W
Apr 4vs MIL2 − 5L
Apr 2vs MIN1 − 5L
Apr 1vs MIN13 − 9W
Mar 30vs MIN3 − 1W
Mar 29at ATL4 − 1W
Mar 28at ATL2 − 6L
Mar 27at ATL0 − 6L
Sep 28, 2025at ATH9 − 2W

CLE · Last 10

6−4 · streak W1
Apr 5vs CHC6 − 5W
Apr 5vs CHC0 − 1L
Apr 3vs CHC4 − 1W
Apr 1at LAD4 − 1W
Mar 31at LAD1 − 4L
Mar 30at LAD4 − 2W
Mar 29at SEA0 − 8L
Mar 28at SEA6 − 5W
Mar 27at SEA1 − 5L
Mar 26at SEA6 − 4W