bayesRatings

White Sox at Royals

MLB · Thursday, Apr 9 · 6:40 PM CT · Kauffman Stadium · Final CHW 2 – KC 0
← MLB / Apr 9

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
CHW000100100250
KC000000000051
Team box
CHW·KC
5
hits
5
0
home runs
0
5
walks
4
5
strikeouts
11
155
pitches thrown
130
0
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Colson MontgomeryCHW1-4001
Edgar QueroCHW2-4000
Bobby Witt Jr.KC2-5000
Maikel GarciaKC2-4000
Luisangel AcunaCHW0-3001
Dustin HarrisCHW1-3000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Anthony Kay (W)CHW5.23026
Seranthony Dominguez (S)CHW1.00012
Seth Lugo (L)KC6.14144

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
KC +3
CHW +3
123456789
largest lead: KC 0 · CHW 2lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was CHW 39%, KC 61% · Updated Apr 9

Expected margin
KC by 1.2
Expected score
KC 4.5 – 3.3 CHW
Expected total
7.8
White SoxThe matchupRoyals
+155Our fair odds−155
3.3Expected runs4.5
−0.34Power rating+0.01
3.4Runs / game3.8
5.8Allowed / game4.8
6.7Hits / game7.5
0.83Home runs / game0.92
3.5Walks drawn / game4.0
4−8Season record5−7
4−6Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
CHW chance · KC chance
Our model fair39.2%60.8%
Kalshi39.6%64.6%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
CHWChicago White Sox+15539%+15239.6%———
KCKansas City Royals−15561%−18364.6%———
SpreadKC by 1.2
CHWChicago White Sox+1.2our margin————
KCKansas City Royals−1.2our margin————
Totalwe expect 7.8
Over7.8our total————
Under7.8our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Kansas City Royals by 1.2 expected
Chicago White Sox by 13 runs: <1%Chicago White Sox by 12 runs: <1%Chicago White Sox by 11 runs: <1%Chicago White Sox by 10 runs: <1%Chicago White Sox by 9 runs: <1%Chicago White Sox by 8 runs: 1%Chicago White Sox by 7 runs: 1%Chicago White Sox by 6 runs: 2%Chicago White Sox by 5 runs: 2%Chicago White Sox by 4 runs: 4%Chicago White Sox by 3 runs: 6%Chicago White Sox by 2 runs: 9%Chicago White Sox by 1 run: 15%Kansas City Royals by 1 run: 15%Kansas City Royals by 2 runs: 12%Kansas City Royals by 3 runs: 9%Kansas City Royals by 4 runs: 7%Kansas City Royals by 5 runs: 5%Kansas City Royals by 6 runs: 4%Kansas City Royals by 7 runs: 3%Kansas City Royals by 8 runs: 2%Kansas City Royals by 9 runs: 1%Kansas City Royals by 10 runs: 1%Kansas City Royals by 11 runs: 1%Kansas City Royals by 12 runs: <1%Kansas City Royals by 13 runs: <1%
← CHW wins byKC wins by →
Kansas City Royals wins by 2 or more46%
Kansas City Royals wins by 3 or more34%
Chicago White Sox wins by 2 or more24%
Decided by one run30%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

7.8 expected
1 runs: 3%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 9%4 runs: 6%5 runs: 13%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 13%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 4%14 runs: 2%15 runs: 2%16 runs: 1%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 5.568%
Total over 7.547%
Total over 9.529%
Total from 6 to 939%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
CHWAnthony Kay SP · last 3 starts: 13.2 IP, 2.63 ERA, 17 Kstarted
KCSeth Lugo SP · last 3 starts: 14.2 IP, 3.68 ERA, 15 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
CHW·KC
Apr 8 vs BAL
last game
Apr 8 at CLE
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
7
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 12+ games
CHW·KC
−0.34
rating (0 = average)
+0.01
3.4
runs / game
3.8
5.8
runs allowed / game
4.8
4−8
season record
5−7
3−3
home record
3−3
1−5
away record
2−4
L3
streak
L2
4−6
last 10
5−5
6.7
hits / game
7.5
0.83
home runs / game
0.92
3.5
walks drawn / game
4.0
10.6
batter strikeouts / game
9.0
8.0
pitcher strikeouts / game
9.1
0.83
errors / game
0.42

Rating Trend

CHW · KC · 15 days
Chicago White SoxKansas City Royals
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · KC 7−3
Aug 27, 2025at CHWKC 12 − 1
Aug 26, 2025at CHWKC 5 − 4
Aug 25, 2025at CHWCHW 7 − 0
Aug 17, 2025at KCKC 6 − 2
Aug 16, 2025at KCKC 6 − 2
Aug 15, 2025at KCKC 3 − 1
Jun 8, 2025at CHWKC 7 − 5
Jun 7, 2025at CHWCHW 4 − 1
Jun 6, 2025at CHWCHW 7 − 2
May 8, 2025at KCKC 10 − 0

CHW · Last 10

4−6 · streak L3
Apr 8vs BAL3 − 5L
Apr 7vs BAL2 − 4L
Apr 6vs BAL1 − 2L
Apr 5vs TOR3 − 0W
Apr 4vs TOR6 − 3W
Apr 3vs TOR5 − 4W
Apr 1at MIA0 − 10L
Mar 31at MIA2 − 9L
Mar 30at MIA9 − 4W
Mar 29at MIL7 − 9L

KC · Last 10

5−5 · streak L2
Apr 8at CLE2 − 10L
Apr 7at CLE1 − 2L
Apr 6at CLE4 − 2W
Apr 5vs MIL5 − 8L
Apr 4vs MIL8 − 2W
Apr 4vs MIL2 − 5L
Apr 2vs MIN1 − 5L
Apr 1vs MIN13 − 9W
Mar 30vs MIN3 − 1W
Mar 29at ATL4 − 1W