bayesRatings

Royals at Tigers

MLB · Wednesday, Apr 15 · 5:40 PM CT · Comerica Park · Final KC 1 – DET 2
← MLB / Apr 15

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
KC000010000160
DET00100001270
Team box
KC·DET
6
hits
7
0
home runs
1
3
walks
1
8
strikeouts
9
116
pitches thrown
147
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Wenceel PerezDET1-1111
Gleyber TorresDET3-4000
Jac CaglianoneKC3-3000
Kyle IsbelKC1-2001
Javier BaezDET1-3100
Zach McKinstryDET1-2000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Seth LugoKC6.25107
Eli Morgan (L)KC1.02111
Jack FlahertyDET6.02137
Kyle Finnegan (W)DET1.11000
Kenley Jansen (S)DET1.01001

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
DET +3
KC +3
123456789
largest lead: DET 1 · KC 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was KC 46%, DET 54% · Updated Apr 15

Expected margin
DET by 0.6
Expected score
DET 4.2 – 3.6 KC
Expected total
7.8
RoyalsThe matchupTigers
+116Our fair odds−116
3.6Expected runs4.2
+0.00Power rating+0.06
3.2Runs / game4.2
3.9Allowed / game3.6
6.9Hits / game7.7
0.76Home runs / game0.71
3.6Walks drawn / game3.9
7−10Season record8−9
4−6Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
KC chance · DET chance
Our model fair46.2%53.8%
Kalshi48.7%56.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 5:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
KCKansas City Royals+11646%+10548.7%———
DETDetroit Tigers−11654%−13156.7%———
SpreadDET by 0.6
KCKansas City Royals+0.6our margin————
DETDetroit Tigers−0.6our margin————
Totalwe expect 7.8
Over7.8our total————
Under7.8our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Detroit Tigers by 0.6 expected
Kansas City Royals by 12 runs: <1%Kansas City Royals by 11 runs: <1%Kansas City Royals by 10 runs: <1%Kansas City Royals by 9 runs: 1%Kansas City Royals by 8 runs: 1%Kansas City Royals by 7 runs: 1%Kansas City Royals by 6 runs: 2%Kansas City Royals by 5 runs: 3%Kansas City Royals by 4 runs: 5%Kansas City Royals by 3 runs: 6%Kansas City Royals by 2 runs: 9%Kansas City Royals by 1 run: 17%Detroit Tigers by 1 run: 14%Detroit Tigers by 2 runs: 11%Detroit Tigers by 3 runs: 8%Detroit Tigers by 4 runs: 6%Detroit Tigers by 5 runs: 5%Detroit Tigers by 6 runs: 3%Detroit Tigers by 7 runs: 2%Detroit Tigers by 8 runs: 2%Detroit Tigers by 9 runs: 1%Detroit Tigers by 10 runs: 1%Detroit Tigers by 11 runs: <1%Detroit Tigers by 12 runs: <1%
← KC wins byDET wins by →
Detroit Tigers wins by 2 or more40%
Detroit Tigers wins by 3 or more29%
Kansas City Royals wins by 2 or more29%
Decided by one run31%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

7.8 expected
1 runs: 3%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 9%4 runs: 6%5 runs: 13%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 13%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 4%14 runs: 2%15 runs: 2%16 runs: 1%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: <1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 5.568%
Total over 7.547%
Total over 9.529%
Total from 6 to 939%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
KCSeth Lugo SP · last 3 starts: 17.2 IP, 1.53 ERA, 14 Kstarted
DETJack Flaherty SP · last 3 starts: 14.0 IP, 5.14 ERA, 14 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
KC·DET
Apr 14 at DET
last game
Apr 14 vs KC
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
2nd straight road game
home / road
5th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 17+ games
KC·DET
+0.00
rating (0 = average)
+0.06
3.2
runs / game
4.2
3.9
runs allowed / game
3.6
7−10
season record
8−9
5−5
home record
6−1
2−5
away record
2−8
L2
streak
W4
4−6
last 10
5−5
6.9
hits / game
7.7
0.76
home runs / game
0.71
3.6
walks drawn / game
3.9
8.3
batter strikeouts / game
8.4
8.5
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.6
0.35
errors / game
0.65

Rating Trend

KC · DET · 21 days
Kansas City RoyalsDetroit Tigers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · DET 7−3
Apr 14at DETDET 2 − 1
Aug 31, 2025at KCDET 5 − 0
Aug 30, 2025at KCKC 3 − 1
Aug 29, 2025at KCDET 5 − 3
Aug 24, 2025at DETKC 10 − 8
Aug 23, 2025at DETDET 4 − 2
Aug 22, 2025at DETDET 7 − 5
Jun 1, 2025at KCDET 1 − 0
May 31, 2025at KCKC 1 − 0
May 30, 2025at KCDET 7 − 5

KC · Last 10

4−6 · streak L2
Apr 14at DET1 − 2L
Apr 12vs CHW5 − 6L
Apr 11vs CHW2 − 0W
Apr 10vs CHW2 − 0W
Apr 9vs CHW0 − 2L
Apr 8at CLE2 − 10L
Apr 7at CLE1 − 2L
Apr 6at CLE4 − 2W
Apr 5vs MIL5 − 8L
Apr 4vs MIL8 − 2W

DET · Last 10

5−5 · streak W4
Apr 14vs KC2 − 1W
Apr 12vs MIA8 − 2W
Apr 11vs MIA6 − 1W
Apr 10vs MIA2 − 0W
Apr 9at MIN1 − 3L
Apr 8at MIN6 − 8L
Apr 7at MIN2 − 4L
Apr 6at MIN3 − 7L
Apr 5vs STL3 − 5L
Apr 4vs STL11 − 6W