bayesRatings

Red Sox at Twins

MLB · Wednesday, Apr 15 · 12:40 PM CT · Target Field · Final BOS 9 – MIN 5
← MLB / Apr 15

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
BOS0050220009130
MIN100000004562
Team box
BOS·MIN
13
hits
6
1
home runs
2
4
walks
4
7
strikeouts
7
156
pitches thrown
155
0
errors
2
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Trevor StoryBOS2-4115
Ryan KreidlerMIN1-3113
Austin MartinMIN2-4111
Andruw MonasterioBOS3-5101
Isiah Kiner-FalefaBOS2-3100
Connor WongBOS1-3001
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Connelly Early (W)BOS6.02125
Simeon Woods Richardson (L)MIN5.010633

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
MIN +8
BOS +8
123456789
largest lead: MIN 1 · BOS 8lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was BOS 50%, MIN 50% · Updated Apr 15

Expected margin
BOS by 0.5
Expected score
BOS 4.9 – 4.4 MIN
Expected total
9.3
Red SoxThe matchupTwins
+101Our fair odds−101
4.9Expected runs4.4
+0.06Power rating−0.04
4.0Runs / game5.4
4.8Allowed / game4.3
7.7Hits / game7.6
0.65Home runs / game1.33
3.4Walks drawn / game4.3
6−11Season record11−7
4−6Last 108−2

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
BOS chance · MIN chance
Our model fair49.9%50.1%
Kalshi56.7%48.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 12:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
BOSBoston Red Sox+10150%−13156.7%———
MINMinnesota Twins−10150%+10548.7%———
SpreadBOS by 0.5
BOSBoston Red Sox−0.5our margin————
MINMinnesota Twins+0.5our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.3
Over9.3our total————
Under9.3our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Boston Red Sox by 0.5 expected
Boston Red Sox by 14 runs: <1%Boston Red Sox by 13 runs: <1%Boston Red Sox by 12 runs: <1%Boston Red Sox by 11 runs: 1%Boston Red Sox by 10 runs: 1%Boston Red Sox by 9 runs: 1%Boston Red Sox by 8 runs: 2%Boston Red Sox by 7 runs: 3%Boston Red Sox by 6 runs: 4%Boston Red Sox by 5 runs: 5%Boston Red Sox by 4 runs: 6%Boston Red Sox by 3 runs: 8%Boston Red Sox by 2 runs: 10%Boston Red Sox by 1 run: 10%Minnesota Twins by 1 run: 16%Minnesota Twins by 2 runs: 9%Minnesota Twins by 3 runs: 6%Minnesota Twins by 4 runs: 5%Minnesota Twins by 5 runs: 4%Minnesota Twins by 6 runs: 3%Minnesota Twins by 7 runs: 2%Minnesota Twins by 8 runs: 1%Minnesota Twins by 9 runs: 1%Minnesota Twins by 10 runs: 1%Minnesota Twins by 11 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 12 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 13 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 14 runs: <1%
← BOS wins byMIN wins by →
Boston Red Sox wins by 2 or more41%
Boston Red Sox wins by 3 or more31%
Minnesota Twins wins by 2 or more32%
Decided by one run27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.3 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 5%4 runs: 4%5 runs: 9%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 4%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.560%
Total over 9.542%
Total over 11.527%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
BOSConnelly Early SP · last 3 starts: 13.2 IP, 2.63 ERA, 15 Kstarted
MINSimeon Woods Richardson SP · last 3 starts: 15.2 IP, 4.60 ERA, 8 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
BOS·MIN
Apr 14 at MIN
last game
Apr 14 vs BOS
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
7
6th straight road game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 17+ games
BOS·MIN
+0.06
rating (0 = average)
−0.04
4.0
runs / game
5.4
4.8
runs allowed / game
4.3
6−11
season record
11−7
3−3
home record
7−2
3−8
away record
4−5
L2
streak
W4
4−6
last 10
8−2
7.7
hits / game
7.6
0.65
home runs / game
1.33
3.4
walks drawn / game
4.3
9.0
batter strikeouts / game
9.2
7.9
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.2
0.82
errors / game
0.44

Rating Trend

BOS · MIN · 21 days
Boston Red SoxMinnesota Twins
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · MIN 5−5
Apr 14at MINMIN 6 − 0
Apr 13at MINMIN 13 − 6
Jul 30, 2025at MINBOS 13 − 1
Jul 29, 2025at MINBOS 8 − 5
Jul 28, 2025at MINMIN 5 − 4
May 4, 2025at BOSMIN 5 − 4
May 3, 2025at BOSMIN 4 − 3
May 2, 2025at BOSBOS 6 − 1
Sep 22, 2024at BOSBOS 9 − 3
Sep 22, 2024at BOSBOS 8 − 1

BOS · Last 10

4−6 · streak L2
Apr 14at MIN0 − 6L
Apr 13at MIN6 − 13L
Apr 12at STL9 − 3W
Apr 11at STL7 − 1W
Apr 10at STL2 − 3L
Apr 8vs MIL5 − 0W
Apr 7vs MIL3 − 2W
Apr 6vs MIL6 − 8L
Apr 5vs SD6 − 8L
Apr 4vs SD2 − 3L

MIN · Last 10

8−2 · streak W4
Apr 14vs BOS6 − 0W
Apr 13vs BOS13 − 6W
Apr 12at TOR8 − 2W
Apr 11at TOR7 − 4W
Apr 10at TOR4 − 10L
Apr 9vs DET3 − 1W
Apr 8vs DET8 − 6W
Apr 7vs DET4 − 2W
Apr 6vs DET7 − 3W
Apr 5vs TB1 − 4L