bayesRatings

Red Sox at Twins

MLB · Tuesday, Apr 14 · 6:40 PM CT · Target Field · Final BOS 0 – MIN 6
← MLB / Apr 14

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
BOS000000000060
MIN101301006100
Team box
BOS·MIN
6
hits
10
0
home runs
3
1
walks
2
12
strikeouts
8
167
pitches thrown
127
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Byron BuxtonMIN4-5422
Brooks LeeMIN1-4111
Trevor LarnachMIN1-3002
Luke KeaschallMIN2-4001
Masataka YoshidaBOS2-4000
Roman AnthonyBOS2-4000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Sonny Gray (L)BOS4.09511
Mick Abel (W)MIN7.040010

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
MIN +6
BOS +6
123456789
largest lead: MIN 6 · BOS 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was BOS 51%, MIN 49% · Updated Apr 14

Expected margin
BOS by 0.6
Expected score
BOS 5.0 – 4.4 MIN
Expected total
9.4
Red SoxThe matchupTwins
−103Our fair odds+103
5.0Expected runs4.4
+0.07Power rating−0.05
4.2Runs / game5.4
4.7Allowed / game4.5
7.8Hits / game7.5
0.69Home runs / game1.24
3.5Walks drawn / game4.5
6−10Season record10−7
5−5Last 107−3

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
BOS chance · MIN chance
Our model fair50.7%49.3%
Kalshi58.7%46.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
BOSBoston Red Sox−10351%−14258.7%———
MINMinnesota Twins+10349%+11446.7%———
SpreadBOS by 0.6
BOSBoston Red Sox−0.6our margin————
MINMinnesota Twins+0.6our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.4
Over9.4our total————
Under9.4our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Boston Red Sox by 0.6 expected
Boston Red Sox by 14 runs: <1%Boston Red Sox by 13 runs: <1%Boston Red Sox by 12 runs: <1%Boston Red Sox by 11 runs: 1%Boston Red Sox by 10 runs: 1%Boston Red Sox by 9 runs: 1%Boston Red Sox by 8 runs: 2%Boston Red Sox by 7 runs: 3%Boston Red Sox by 6 runs: 4%Boston Red Sox by 5 runs: 5%Boston Red Sox by 4 runs: 6%Boston Red Sox by 3 runs: 8%Boston Red Sox by 2 runs: 10%Boston Red Sox by 1 run: 10%Minnesota Twins by 1 run: 16%Minnesota Twins by 2 runs: 9%Minnesota Twins by 3 runs: 6%Minnesota Twins by 4 runs: 5%Minnesota Twins by 5 runs: 4%Minnesota Twins by 6 runs: 3%Minnesota Twins by 7 runs: 2%Minnesota Twins by 8 runs: 1%Minnesota Twins by 9 runs: 1%Minnesota Twins by 10 runs: 1%Minnesota Twins by 11 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 12 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 13 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 14 runs: <1%
← BOS wins byMIN wins by →
Boston Red Sox wins by 2 or more42%
Boston Red Sox wins by 3 or more32%
Minnesota Twins wins by 2 or more31%
Decided by one run27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.4 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 5%4 runs: 4%5 runs: 9%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 7%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 4%15 runs: 4%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%25 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.561%
Total over 9.543%
Total over 11.528%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
BOSSonny Gray SP · last 3 starts: 16.1 IP, 2.76 ERA, 10 Kstarted
MINMick Abel SP · last 3 starts: 16.0 IP, 2.25 ERA, 18 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
BOS·MIN
Apr 13 at MIN
last game
Apr 13 vs BOS
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
7
5th straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 16+ games
BOS·MIN
+0.07
rating (0 = average)
−0.05
4.2
runs / game
5.4
4.7
runs allowed / game
4.5
6−10
season record
10−7
3−3
home record
6−2
3−7
away record
4−5
L1
streak
W3
5−5
last 10
7−3
7.8
hits / game
7.5
0.69
home runs / game
1.24
3.5
walks drawn / game
4.5
8.8
batter strikeouts / game
9.2
7.9
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.9
0.88
errors / game
0.47

Rating Trend

BOS · MIN · 20 days
Boston Red SoxMinnesota Twins
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · MIN 5−5
Apr 13at MINMIN 13 − 6
Jul 30, 2025at MINBOS 13 − 1
Jul 29, 2025at MINBOS 8 − 5
Jul 28, 2025at MINMIN 5 − 4
May 4, 2025at BOSMIN 5 − 4
May 3, 2025at BOSMIN 4 − 3
May 2, 2025at BOSBOS 6 − 1
Sep 22, 2024at BOSBOS 9 − 3
Sep 22, 2024at BOSBOS 8 − 1
Sep 20, 2024at BOSMIN 4 − 2

BOS · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
Apr 13at MIN6 − 13L
Apr 12at STL9 − 3W
Apr 11at STL7 − 1W
Apr 10at STL2 − 3L
Apr 8vs MIL5 − 0W
Apr 7vs MIL3 − 2W
Apr 6vs MIL6 − 8L
Apr 5vs SD6 − 8L
Apr 4vs SD2 − 3L
Apr 3vs SD5 − 2W

MIN · Last 10

7−3 · streak W3
Apr 13vs BOS13 − 6W
Apr 12at TOR8 − 2W
Apr 11at TOR7 − 4W
Apr 10at TOR4 − 10L
Apr 9vs DET3 − 1W
Apr 8vs DET8 − 6W
Apr 7vs DET4 − 2W
Apr 6vs DET7 − 3W
Apr 5vs TB1 − 4L
Apr 4vs TB1 − 7L