bayesRatings

Tigers at Red Sox

MLB · Saturday, Apr 18 · 3:10 PM CT · Fenway Park · Final DET 4 – BOS 1
← MLB / Apr 18

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
DET100300000480
BOS000010000150
Team box
DET·BOS
8
hits
5
1
home runs
0
4
walks
2
7
strikeouts
12
131
pitches thrown
156
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Kerry CarpenterDET2-3112
Kevin McGonigleDET2-5101
Jake RogersDET1-3001
Willson ContrerasBOS1-4000
Andruw MonasterioBOS1-4000
Ceddanne RafaelaBOS1-4000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Tarik Skubal (W)DET6.041210
Kenley Jansen (S)DET1.01000
Brayan Bello (L)BOS4.05434

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
BOS +4
DET +4
123456789
largest lead: BOS 0 · DET 4lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was DET 47%, BOS 53% · Updated Apr 18

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
BOS 4.3 – 4.2 DET
Expected total
8.5
TigersThe matchupRed Sox
+112Our fair odds−112
4.2Expected runs4.3
+0.06Power rating+0.07
4.2Runs / game4.1
3.6Allowed / game4.5
7.8Hits / game7.8
0.70Home runs / game0.63
3.6Walks drawn / game3.4
10−10Season record8−11
6−4Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
DET chance · BOS chance
Our model fair47.3%52.7%
Kalshi59.7%45.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 3:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
DETDetroit Tigers+11247%−14859.7%———
BOSBoston Red Sox−11253%+11945.7%———
Spreadabout even
DETDetroit Tigers+0.2our margin————
BOSBoston Red Sox−0.2our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.5
Over8.5our total————
Under8.5our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Detroit Tigers by 12 runs: <1%Detroit Tigers by 11 runs: <1%Detroit Tigers by 10 runs: 1%Detroit Tigers by 9 runs: 1%Detroit Tigers by 8 runs: 1%Detroit Tigers by 7 runs: 2%Detroit Tigers by 6 runs: 3%Detroit Tigers by 5 runs: 4%Detroit Tigers by 4 runs: 5%Detroit Tigers by 3 runs: 7%Detroit Tigers by 2 runs: 10%Detroit Tigers by 1 run: 13%Boston Red Sox by 1 run: 16%Boston Red Sox by 2 runs: 10%Boston Red Sox by 3 runs: 7%Boston Red Sox by 4 runs: 6%Boston Red Sox by 5 runs: 4%Boston Red Sox by 6 runs: 3%Boston Red Sox by 7 runs: 2%Boston Red Sox by 8 runs: 1%Boston Red Sox by 9 runs: 1%Boston Red Sox by 10 runs: 1%Boston Red Sox by 11 runs: <1%Boston Red Sox by 12 runs: <1%
← DET wins byBOS wins by →
Boston Red Sox wins by 2 or more37%
Boston Red Sox wins by 3 or more27%
Detroit Tigers wins by 2 or more34%
Decided by one run29%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.5 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 7%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.565%
Total over 8.546%
Total over 10.529%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
DETTarik Skubal SP · last 3 starts: 18.1 IP, 2.95 ERA, 17 Kstarted
BOSBrayan Bello SP · last 3 starts: 14.2 IP, 6.14 ERA, 9 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
DET·BOS
Apr 17 at BOS
last game
Apr 17 vs DET
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
2nd straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 19+ games
DET·BOS
+0.06
rating (0 = average)
+0.07
4.2
runs / game
4.1
3.6
runs allowed / game
4.5
10−10
season record
8−11
8−1
home record
4−3
2−9
away record
4−8
L1
streak
W2
6−4
last 10
6−4
7.8
hits / game
7.8
0.70
home runs / game
0.63
3.6
walks drawn / game
3.4
8.2
batter strikeouts / game
8.9
7.7
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.8
0.60
errors / game
0.74

Rating Trend

DET · BOS · 24 days
Detroit TigersBoston Red Sox
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · BOS 4−6
Apr 17at BOSBOS 1 − 0
Sep 28, 2025at BOSBOS 4 − 3
Sep 27, 2025at BOSDET 2 − 1
Sep 26, 2025at BOSBOS 4 − 3
May 14, 2025at DETDET 6 − 5
May 13, 2025at DETDET 10 − 9
May 12, 2025at DETDET 14 − 2
Sep 1, 2024at DETDET 4 − 1
Aug 31, 2024at DETDET 2 − 1
Aug 30, 2024at DETBOS 7 − 5

DET · Last 10

6−4 · streak L1
Apr 17at BOS0 − 1L
Apr 16vs KC10 − 9W
Apr 15vs KC2 − 1W
Apr 14vs KC2 − 1W
Apr 12vs MIA8 − 2W
Apr 11vs MIA6 − 1W
Apr 10vs MIA2 − 0W
Apr 9at MIN1 − 3L
Apr 8at MIN6 − 8L
Apr 7at MIN2 − 4L

BOS · Last 10

6−4 · streak W2
Apr 17vs DET1 − 0W
Apr 15at MIN9 − 5W
Apr 14at MIN0 − 6L
Apr 13at MIN6 − 13L
Apr 12at STL9 − 3W
Apr 11at STL7 − 1W
Apr 10at STL2 − 3L
Apr 8vs MIL5 − 0W
Apr 7vs MIL3 − 2W
Apr 6vs MIL6 − 8L