bayesRatings

Tigers at Red Sox

MLB · Sunday, Apr 19 · 3:35 PM CT · Fenway Park · Final DET 6 – BOS 2
← MLB / Apr 19

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
DET1000400016120
BOS100000001260
Team box
DET·BOS
12
hits
6
2
home runs
1
3
walks
3
8
strikeouts
10
151
pitches thrown
150
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Dillon DinglerDET4-5114
Willson ContrerasBOS1-4111
Jahmai JonesDET1-3111
Caleb DurbinBOS1-4001
Javier BaezDET2-4100
Gleyber TorresDET1-4101
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Framber Valdez (W)DET6.03127
Garrett Crochet (L)BOS5.07528

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
BOS +5
DET +5
123456789
largest lead: BOS 0 · DET 5lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was DET 48%, BOS 52% · Updated Apr 19

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
BOS 4.2 – 4.2 DET
Expected total
8.4
TigersThe matchupRed Sox
+110Our fair odds−110
4.2Expected runs4.2
+0.07Power rating+0.07
4.2Runs / game4.0
3.5Allowed / game4.5
7.8Hits / game7.7
0.71Home runs / game0.60
3.7Walks drawn / game3.3
11−10Season record8−12
7−3Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
DET chance · BOS chance
Our model fair47.7%52.3%
Kalshi44.7%59.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 3:35 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
DETDetroit Tigers+11048%+12444.7%———
BOSBoston Red Sox−11052%−14859.7%———
Spreadabout even
DETDetroit Tigers+0.1our margin————
BOSBoston Red Sox−0.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.4
Over8.4our total————
Under8.4our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Detroit Tigers by 12 runs: <1%Detroit Tigers by 11 runs: <1%Detroit Tigers by 10 runs: 1%Detroit Tigers by 9 runs: 1%Detroit Tigers by 8 runs: 1%Detroit Tigers by 7 runs: 2%Detroit Tigers by 6 runs: 3%Detroit Tigers by 5 runs: 4%Detroit Tigers by 4 runs: 5%Detroit Tigers by 3 runs: 7%Detroit Tigers by 2 runs: 10%Detroit Tigers by 1 run: 13%Boston Red Sox by 1 run: 16%Boston Red Sox by 2 runs: 10%Boston Red Sox by 3 runs: 7%Boston Red Sox by 4 runs: 6%Boston Red Sox by 5 runs: 4%Boston Red Sox by 6 runs: 3%Boston Red Sox by 7 runs: 2%Boston Red Sox by 8 runs: 1%Boston Red Sox by 9 runs: 1%Boston Red Sox by 10 runs: 1%Boston Red Sox by 11 runs: <1%Boston Red Sox by 12 runs: <1%
← DET wins byBOS wins by →
Boston Red Sox wins by 2 or more36%
Boston Red Sox wins by 3 or more26%
Detroit Tigers wins by 2 or more35%
Decided by one run29%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.4 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 7%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.565%
Total over 8.545%
Total over 10.528%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
DETFramber Valdez SP · last 3 starts: 18.0 IP, 4.50 ERA, 8 Kstarted
BOSGarrett Crochet SP · last 3 starts: 13.0 IP, 11.08 ERA, 14 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
DET·BOS
Apr 18 at BOS
last game
Apr 18 vs DET
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
3rd straight road game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 20+ games
DET·BOS
+0.07
rating (0 = average)
+0.07
4.2
runs / game
4.0
3.5
runs allowed / game
4.5
11−10
season record
8−12
8−1
home record
4−4
3−9
away record
4−8
W1
streak
L1
7−3
last 10
6−4
7.8
hits / game
7.7
0.71
home runs / game
0.60
3.7
walks drawn / game
3.3
8.2
batter strikeouts / game
9.1
7.9
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.8
0.57
errors / game
0.70

Rating Trend

DET · BOS · 25 days
Detroit TigersBoston Red Sox
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · BOS 3−7
Apr 18at BOSDET 4 − 1
Apr 17at BOSBOS 1 − 0
Sep 28, 2025at BOSBOS 4 − 3
Sep 27, 2025at BOSDET 2 − 1
Sep 26, 2025at BOSBOS 4 − 3
May 14, 2025at DETDET 6 − 5
May 13, 2025at DETDET 10 − 9
May 12, 2025at DETDET 14 − 2
Sep 1, 2024at DETDET 4 − 1
Aug 31, 2024at DETDET 2 − 1

DET · Last 10

7−3 · streak W1
Apr 18at BOS4 − 1W
Apr 17at BOS0 − 1L
Apr 16vs KC10 − 9W
Apr 15vs KC2 − 1W
Apr 14vs KC2 − 1W
Apr 12vs MIA8 − 2W
Apr 11vs MIA6 − 1W
Apr 10vs MIA2 − 0W
Apr 9at MIN1 − 3L
Apr 8at MIN6 − 8L

BOS · Last 10

6−4 · streak L1
Apr 18vs DET1 − 4L
Apr 17vs DET1 − 0W
Apr 15at MIN9 − 5W
Apr 14at MIN0 − 6L
Apr 13at MIN6 − 13L
Apr 12at STL9 − 3W
Apr 11at STL7 − 1W
Apr 10at STL2 − 3L
Apr 8vs MIL5 − 0W
Apr 7vs MIL3 − 2W