bayesRatings

Red Sox at Tigers

MLB · Monday, May 4 · 5:10 PM CT · Comerica Park · Final BOS 5 – DET 4
← MLB / May 4

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
BOS0000005005122
DET000002020431
Team box
BOS·DET
12
hits
3
1
home runs
0
3
walks
2
11
strikeouts
11
122
pitches thrown
170
2
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Jarren DuranBOS3-5113
Marcelo MayerBOS2-4001
Dillon DinglerDET1-4002
Masataka YoshidaBOS2-4100
Ceddanne RafaelaBOS2-5000
Wilyer AbreuBOS1-4101
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Payton Tolle (W)BOS7.01018
Aroldis Chapman (S)BOS1.00001
Tyler HoltonDET1.02001
Ricky Vanasco (L)DET0.23410

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
DET +3
BOS +3
123456789
largest lead: DET 2 · BOS 3lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was BOS 47%, DET 53% · Updated May 4

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
DET 4.4 – 4.0 BOS
Expected total
8.3
Red SoxThe matchupTigers
+112Our fair odds−112
4.0Expected runs4.4
+0.03Power rating+0.07
3.8Runs / game4.5
4.4Allowed / game4.0
7.9Hits / game8.4
0.68Home runs / game1.00
3.4Walks drawn / game3.8
13−21Season record18−17
4−6Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
BOS chance · DET chance
Our model fair47.1%52.9%
Kalshi55.7%49.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 5:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
BOSBoston Red Sox+11247%−12655.7%———
DETDetroit Tigers−11253%+10149.7%———
Spreadabout even
BOSBoston Red Sox+0.4our margin————
DETDetroit Tigers−0.4our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.3
Over8.3our total————
Under8.3our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Boston Red Sox by 13 runs: <1%Boston Red Sox by 12 runs: <1%Boston Red Sox by 11 runs: <1%Boston Red Sox by 10 runs: <1%Boston Red Sox by 9 runs: 1%Boston Red Sox by 8 runs: 1%Boston Red Sox by 7 runs: 2%Boston Red Sox by 6 runs: 2%Boston Red Sox by 5 runs: 4%Boston Red Sox by 4 runs: 5%Boston Red Sox by 3 runs: 7%Boston Red Sox by 2 runs: 10%Boston Red Sox by 1 run: 15%Detroit Tigers by 1 run: 14%Detroit Tigers by 2 runs: 11%Detroit Tigers by 3 runs: 8%Detroit Tigers by 4 runs: 6%Detroit Tigers by 5 runs: 4%Detroit Tigers by 6 runs: 3%Detroit Tigers by 7 runs: 2%Detroit Tigers by 8 runs: 2%Detroit Tigers by 9 runs: 1%Detroit Tigers by 10 runs: 1%Detroit Tigers by 11 runs: <1%Detroit Tigers by 12 runs: <1%Detroit Tigers by 13 runs: <1%
← BOS wins byDET wins by →
Detroit Tigers wins by 2 or more39%
Detroit Tigers wins by 3 or more28%
Boston Red Sox wins by 2 or more32%
Decided by one run29%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.3 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 7%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 12%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 1%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.564%
Total over 8.544%
Total over 10.527%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
BOSPayton Tolle SP · last 3 starts: 12.2 IP, 4.26 ERA, 17 Kstarted
DETTyler Holton RP · last 3 starts: 3.2 IP, 4.91 ERA, 6 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
BOS·DET
May 3 vs HOU
last game
May 3 vs TEX
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
road after a home game
home / road
4th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 34+ games
BOS·DET
+0.03
rating (0 = average)
+0.07
3.8
runs / game
4.5
4.4
runs allowed / game
4.0
13−21
season record
18−17
6−10
home record
12−3
7−11
away record
6−14
L2
streak
W2
4−6
last 10
5−5
7.9
hits / game
8.4
0.68
home runs / game
1.00
3.4
walks drawn / game
3.8
8.2
batter strikeouts / game
8.2
7.9
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.2
0.47
errors / game
0.51

Rating Trend

BOS · DET · 40 days
Boston Red SoxDetroit Tigers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · DET 6−4
Apr 20at BOSBOS 8 − 6
Apr 19at BOSDET 6 − 2
Apr 18at BOSDET 4 − 1
Apr 17at BOSBOS 1 − 0
Sep 28, 2025at BOSBOS 4 − 3
Sep 27, 2025at BOSDET 2 − 1
Sep 26, 2025at BOSBOS 4 − 3
May 14, 2025at DETDET 6 − 5
May 13, 2025at DETDET 10 − 9
May 12, 2025at DETDET 14 − 2

BOS · Last 10

4−6 · streak L2
May 3vs HOU1 − 3L
May 2vs HOU3 − 6L
May 1vs HOU3 − 1W
Apr 29at TOR1 − 8L
Apr 28at TOR0 − 3L
Apr 27at TOR5 − 0W
Apr 26at BAL5 − 3W
Apr 25at BAL17 − 1W
Apr 24at BAL3 − 10L
Apr 23vs NYY2 − 4L

DET · Last 10

5−5 · streak W2
May 3vs TEX7 − 1W
May 2vs TEX5 − 1W
May 1vs TEX4 − 5L
Apr 30at ATL5 − 2W
Apr 29at ATL3 − 4L
Apr 28at ATL2 − 5L
Apr 26at CIN8 − 3W
Apr 25at CIN2 − 9L
Apr 24at CIN8 − 9L
Apr 23vs MIL5 − 4W