bayesRatings

Red Sox at Orioles

MLB · Friday, Apr 24 · 6:05 PM CT · Oriole Park at Camden Yards · Final BOS 3 – BAL 10
← MLB / Apr 24

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
BOS0100110003100
BAL4112101010200
Team box
BOS·BAL
10
hits
20
1
home runs
6
2
walks
2
6
strikeouts
5
164
pitches thrown
139
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Adley RutschmanBAL3-5226
Samuel BasalloBAL4-5111
Gunnar HendersonBAL3-5311
Dylan BeaversBAL3-5111
Coby MayoBAL2-5111
Wilyer AbreuBOS2-4211
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Brayan Bello (L)BOS3.113812
Brandon Young (W)BAL5.27315

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
BAL +7
BOS +7
123456789
largest lead: BAL 7 · BOS 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was BOS 50%, BAL 50% · Updated Apr 24

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
BOS 4.7 – 4.2 BAL
Expected total
8.9
Red SoxThe matchupOrioles
+100Our fair odds−100
4.7Expected runs4.2
+0.03Power rating−0.05
3.7Runs / game4.4
4.6Allowed / game4.6
7.4Hits / game7.6
0.56Home runs / game1.04
3.3Walks drawn / game4.2
9−16Season record12−13
3−7Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
BOS chance · BAL chance
Our model fair49.9%50.1%
Kalshi48.7%55.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:05 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
BOSBoston Red Sox+10050%+10548.7%———
BALBaltimore Orioles−10050%−12655.7%———
Spreadabout even
BOSBoston Red Sox−0.4our margin————
BALBaltimore Orioles+0.4our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.9
Over8.9our total————
Under8.9our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Boston Red Sox by 13 runs: <1%Boston Red Sox by 12 runs: <1%Boston Red Sox by 11 runs: 1%Boston Red Sox by 10 runs: 1%Boston Red Sox by 9 runs: 1%Boston Red Sox by 8 runs: 2%Boston Red Sox by 7 runs: 2%Boston Red Sox by 6 runs: 3%Boston Red Sox by 5 runs: 5%Boston Red Sox by 4 runs: 6%Boston Red Sox by 3 runs: 8%Boston Red Sox by 2 runs: 10%Boston Red Sox by 1 run: 11%Baltimore Orioles by 1 run: 17%Baltimore Orioles by 2 runs: 9%Baltimore Orioles by 3 runs: 7%Baltimore Orioles by 4 runs: 5%Baltimore Orioles by 5 runs: 4%Baltimore Orioles by 6 runs: 3%Baltimore Orioles by 7 runs: 2%Baltimore Orioles by 8 runs: 1%Baltimore Orioles by 9 runs: 1%Baltimore Orioles by 10 runs: 1%Baltimore Orioles by 11 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 12 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 13 runs: <1%
← BOS wins byBAL wins by →
Boston Red Sox wins by 2 or more40%
Boston Red Sox wins by 3 or more30%
Baltimore Orioles wins by 2 or more32%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.9 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.569%
Total over 8.549%
Total over 10.532%
Total from 7 to 1036%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
BOSBrayan Bello SP · last 3 starts: 14.0 IP, 5.79 ERA, 11 Kstarted
BALBrandon Young SP · last 3 starts: 18.1 IP, 3.44 ERA, 9 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
BOS·BAL
Apr 23 vs NYY
last game
Apr 22 at KC
0 days
days of rest
1 day
7
games in last 7 days
6
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 25+ games
BOS·BAL
+0.03
rating (0 = average)
−0.05
3.7
runs / game
4.4
4.6
runs allowed / game
4.6
9−16
season record
12−13
5−8
home record
6−6
4−8
away record
6−7
L3
streak
W1
3−7
last 10
4−6
7.4
hits / game
7.6
0.56
home runs / game
1.04
3.3
walks drawn / game
4.2
8.6
batter strikeouts / game
9.4
8.2
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.8
0.60
errors / game
0.56

Rating Trend

BOS · BAL · 30 days
Boston Red SoxBaltimore Orioles
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · BAL 4−6
Aug 28, 2025at BALBOS 3 − 2
Aug 27, 2025at BALBOS 3 − 2
Aug 26, 2025at BALBOS 5 − 0
Aug 25, 2025at BALBOS 4 − 3
Aug 19, 2025at BOSBAL 4 − 3
Aug 18, 2025at BOSBAL 6 − 3
May 25, 2025at BOSBAL 5 − 1
May 24, 2025at BOSBAL 2 − 1
May 24, 2025at BOSBOS 6 − 5
May 23, 2025at BOSBOS 19 − 5

BOS · Last 10

3−7 · streak L3
Apr 23vs NYY2 − 4L
Apr 22vs NYY1 − 4L
Apr 21vs NYY0 − 4L
Apr 20vs DET8 − 6W
Apr 19vs DET2 − 6L
Apr 18vs DET1 − 4L
Apr 17vs DET1 − 0W
Apr 15at MIN9 − 5W
Apr 14at MIN0 − 6L
Apr 13at MIN6 − 13L

BAL · Last 10

4−6 · streak W1
Apr 22at KC8 − 6W
Apr 21at KC5 − 6L
Apr 20at KC7 − 5W
Apr 19at CLE4 − 8L
Apr 18at CLE2 − 4L
Apr 17at CLE6 − 4W
Apr 16at CLE2 − 4L
Apr 15vs ARI5 − 8L
Apr 14vs ARI3 − 4L
Apr 13vs ARI9 − 7W