bayesRatings

Orioles at Guardians

MLB · Saturday, Apr 18 · 5:10 PM CT · Progressive Field · Final BAL 2 – CLE 4
← MLB / Apr 18

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
BAL000100010240
CLE00003001431
Team box
BAL·CLE
4
hits
3
2
home runs
2
1
walks
2
16
strikeouts
8
128
pitches thrown
139
0
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Brayan RocchioCLE1-3113
Gunnar HendersonBAL2-4111
Leody TaverasBAL1-3111
Bo NaylorCLE1-3111
Taylor WardBAL1-4000
Daniel SchneemannCLE1-3100
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Dean Kremer (L)BAL6.02327
Gavin Williams (W)CLE7.031111
Cade Smith (S)CLE1.00003

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CLE +3
BAL +3
123456789
largest lead: CLE 2 · BAL 1lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was BAL 45%, CLE 55% · Updated Apr 18

Expected margin
CLE by 0.6
Expected score
CLE 4.2 – 3.6 BAL
Expected total
7.8
OriolesThe matchupGuardians
+121Our fair odds−121
3.6Expected runs4.2
−0.04Power rating+0.06
4.2Runs / game4.0
4.3Allowed / game4.2
7.8Hits / game7.5
0.90Home runs / game1.00
4.2Walks drawn / game3.8
10−10Season record11−10
6−4Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
BAL chance · CLE chance
Our model fair45.2%54.8%
Kalshi45.7%58.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 5:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
BALBaltimore Orioles+12145%+11945.7%———
CLECleveland Guardians−12155%−14258.7%———
SpreadCLE by 0.6
BALBaltimore Orioles+0.6our margin————
CLECleveland Guardians−0.6our margin————
Totalwe expect 7.8
Over7.8our total————
Under7.8our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Cleveland Guardians by 0.6 expected
Baltimore Orioles by 12 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 11 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 10 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 9 runs: 1%Baltimore Orioles by 8 runs: 1%Baltimore Orioles by 7 runs: 1%Baltimore Orioles by 6 runs: 2%Baltimore Orioles by 5 runs: 3%Baltimore Orioles by 4 runs: 5%Baltimore Orioles by 3 runs: 6%Baltimore Orioles by 2 runs: 10%Baltimore Orioles by 1 run: 16%Cleveland Guardians by 1 run: 15%Cleveland Guardians by 2 runs: 11%Cleveland Guardians by 3 runs: 8%Cleveland Guardians by 4 runs: 6%Cleveland Guardians by 5 runs: 5%Cleveland Guardians by 6 runs: 3%Cleveland Guardians by 7 runs: 2%Cleveland Guardians by 8 runs: 2%Cleveland Guardians by 9 runs: 1%Cleveland Guardians by 10 runs: 1%Cleveland Guardians by 11 runs: <1%Cleveland Guardians by 12 runs: <1%
← BAL wins byCLE wins by →
Cleveland Guardians wins by 2 or more40%
Cleveland Guardians wins by 3 or more29%
Baltimore Orioles wins by 2 or more29%
Decided by one run31%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

7.8 expected
1 runs: 3%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 9%4 runs: 6%5 runs: 13%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 13%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 4%14 runs: 2%15 runs: 2%16 runs: 1%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: <1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 5.568%
Total over 7.547%
Total over 9.529%
Total from 6 to 939%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
BALDean Kremer SP · last 3 starts: 17.0 IP, 2.12 ERA, 17 Kstarted
CLEGavin Williams SP · last 3 starts: 17.2 IP, 1.53 ERA, 22 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
BAL·CLE
Apr 17 at CLE
last game
Apr 17 vs BAL
0 days
days of rest
0 days
7
games in last 7 days
7
3rd straight road game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 20+ games
BAL·CLE
−0.04
rating (0 = average)
+0.06
4.2
runs / game
4.0
4.3
runs allowed / game
4.2
10−10
season record
11−10
6−6
home record
5−3
4−4
away record
6−7
W1
streak
L1
6−4
last 10
5−5
7.8
hits / game
7.5
0.90
home runs / game
1.00
4.2
walks drawn / game
3.8
9.1
batter strikeouts / game
7.6
8.8
pitcher strikeouts / game
9.6
0.60
errors / game
0.29

Rating Trend

BAL · CLE · 24 days
Baltimore OriolesCleveland Guardians
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · CLE 5−5
Apr 17at CLEBAL 6 − 4
Apr 16at CLECLE 4 − 2
Jul 24, 2025at CLEBAL 4 − 3
Jul 23, 2025at CLECLE 3 − 2
Jul 22, 2025at CLECLE 6 − 3
Jul 21, 2025at CLECLE 10 − 5
Apr 17, 2025at BALBAL 6 − 2
Apr 16, 2025at BALBAL 9 − 1
Apr 15, 2025at BALCLE 6 − 3
Aug 4, 2024at CLEBAL 9 − 5

BAL · Last 10

6−4 · streak W1
Apr 17at CLE6 − 4W
Apr 16at CLE2 − 4L
Apr 15vs ARI5 − 8L
Apr 14vs ARI3 − 4L
Apr 13vs ARI9 − 7W
Apr 12vs SF6 − 2W
Apr 11vs SF6 − 2W
Apr 10vs SF3 − 6L
Apr 8at CHW5 − 3W
Apr 7at CHW4 − 2W

CLE · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
Apr 17vs BAL4 − 6L
Apr 16vs BAL4 − 2W
Apr 15at STL3 − 5L
Apr 14at STL5 − 6L
Apr 13at STL9 − 3W
Apr 12at ATL1 − 13L
Apr 11at ATL6 − 0W
Apr 10at ATL5 − 11L
Apr 8vs KC10 − 2W
Apr 7vs KC2 − 1W