bayesRatings

Guardians at Cardinals

MLB · Tuesday, Apr 14 · 6:45 PM CT · Busch Stadium · Final CLE 5 – STL 6
← MLB / Apr 14

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team12345678910THE
CLE1100000300591
STL1010000211680
Team box
CLE·STL
9
hits
8
2
home runs
3
3
walks
3
6
strikeouts
8
136
pitches thrown
179
1
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
JJ WetherholtSTL2-4223
Jose RamirezCLE2-4211
Daniel SchneemannCLE1-2111
Ivan HerreraSTL1-3111
Angel MartinezCLE1-4002
George ValeraCLE1-4001
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Joey CantilloCLE6.05224
Tim Herrin (L)CLE0.10000
Michael McGreevySTL5.04212
Riley O'Brien (W)STL1.00001

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
STL +3
CLE +3
12345678910
largest lead: STL 1 · CLE 3lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was CLE 51%, STL 49% · Updated Apr 14

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
CLE 4.4 – 4.0 STL
Expected total
8.4
GuardiansThe matchupCardinals
−105Our fair odds+105
4.4Expected runs4.0
+0.08Power rating−0.07
3.9Runs / game4.3
4.1Allowed / game5.6
7.4Hits / game7.4
1.00Home runs / game1.06
3.8Walks drawn / game4.2
10−7Season record8−8
6−4Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
CLE chance · STL chance
Our model fair51.2%48.8%
Kalshi55.7%48.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:45 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
CLECleveland Guardians−10551%−12655.7%———
STLSt. Louis Cardinals+10549%+10548.7%———
Spreadabout even
CLECleveland Guardians−0.4our margin————
STLSt. Louis Cardinals+0.4our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.4
Over8.4our total————
Under8.4our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Cleveland Guardians by 13 runs: <1%Cleveland Guardians by 12 runs: <1%Cleveland Guardians by 11 runs: <1%Cleveland Guardians by 10 runs: 1%Cleveland Guardians by 9 runs: 1%Cleveland Guardians by 8 runs: 2%Cleveland Guardians by 7 runs: 2%Cleveland Guardians by 6 runs: 3%Cleveland Guardians by 5 runs: 5%Cleveland Guardians by 4 runs: 6%Cleveland Guardians by 3 runs: 8%Cleveland Guardians by 2 runs: 11%Cleveland Guardians by 1 run: 12%St. Louis Cardinals by 1 run: 17%St. Louis Cardinals by 2 runs: 9%St. Louis Cardinals by 3 runs: 7%St. Louis Cardinals by 4 runs: 5%St. Louis Cardinals by 5 runs: 4%St. Louis Cardinals by 6 runs: 2%St. Louis Cardinals by 7 runs: 2%St. Louis Cardinals by 8 runs: 1%St. Louis Cardinals by 9 runs: 1%St. Louis Cardinals by 10 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 11 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 12 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 13 runs: <1%
← CLE wins bySTL wins by →
Cleveland Guardians wins by 2 or more39%
Cleveland Guardians wins by 3 or more29%
St. Louis Cardinals wins by 2 or more32%
Decided by one run29%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.4 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 7%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.565%
Total over 8.545%
Total over 10.528%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
CLEJoey Cantillo SP · last 3 starts: 14.2 IP, 2.45 ERA, 20 Kstarted
STLMichael McGreevy SP · last 3 starts: 16.2 IP, 2.16 ERA, 10 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
CLE·STL
Apr 13 at STL
last game
Apr 13 vs CLE
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
5th straight road game
home / road
5th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 16+ games
CLE·STL
+0.08
rating (0 = average)
−0.07
3.9
runs / game
4.3
4.1
runs allowed / game
5.6
10−7
season record
8−8
4−2
home record
5−5
6−5
away record
3−3
W1
streak
L3
6−4
last 10
4−6
7.4
hits / game
7.4
1.00
home runs / game
1.06
3.8
walks drawn / game
4.2
7.6
batter strikeouts / game
7.9
9.8
pitcher strikeouts / game
6.1
0.29
errors / game
0.56

Rating Trend

CLE · STL · 20 days
Cleveland GuardiansSt. Louis Cardinals
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · STL 6−4
Apr 13at STLCLE 9 − 3
Jun 29, 2025at CLESTL 7 − 0
Jun 28, 2025at CLESTL 9 − 6
Jun 27, 2025at CLESTL 5 − 0
Sep 22, 2024at STLSTL 2 − 1
Sep 21, 2024at STLSTL 6 − 5
Sep 20, 2024at STLCLE 5 − 1
May 28, 2023at CLECLE 4 − 3
May 27, 2023at CLESTL 2 − 1
May 26, 2023at CLECLE 4 − 3

CLE · Last 10

6−4 · streak W1
Apr 13at STL9 − 3W
Apr 12at ATL1 − 13L
Apr 11at ATL6 − 0W
Apr 10at ATL5 − 11L
Apr 8vs KC10 − 2W
Apr 7vs KC2 − 1W
Apr 6vs KC2 − 4L
Apr 5vs CHC6 − 5W
Apr 5vs CHC0 − 1L
Apr 3vs CHC4 − 1W

STL · Last 10

4−6 · streak L3
Apr 13vs CLE3 − 9L
Apr 12vs BOS3 − 9L
Apr 11vs BOS1 − 7L
Apr 10vs BOS3 − 2W
Apr 8at WSH6 − 1W
Apr 7at WSH7 − 6W
Apr 6at WSH6 − 9L
Apr 5at DET5 − 3W
Apr 4at DET6 − 11L
Apr 3at DET0 − 4L