bayesRatings

Guardians at Braves

MLB · Sunday, Apr 12 · 6:20 PM CT · Truist Park · Final CLE 1 – ATL 13
← MLB / Apr 12

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
CLE000001000191
ATL0302400413190
Team box
CLE·ATL
9
hits
19
1
home runs
1
1
walks
2
8
strikeouts
5
166
pitches thrown
130
1
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Jorge MateoATL4-4201
Mauricio DubonATL3-4202
Dominic SmithATL1-2112
Ozzie AlbiesATL3-4201
Austin RileyATL2-5102
Rhys HoskinsCLE1-4111
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Tanner Bibee (L)CLE4.211814
Chris Sale (W)ATL6.08116
Dylan Dodd (S)ATL3.01002

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
ATL +12
CLE +12
123456789
largest lead: ATL 12 · CLE 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was CLE 48%, ATL 52% · Updated Apr 12

Expected margin
ATL by 0.5
Expected score
ATL 4.3 – 3.8 CLE
Expected total
8.2
GuardiansThe matchupBraves
+107Our fair odds−107
3.8Expected runs4.3
+0.09Power rating+0.06
3.8Runs / game5.1
3.6Allowed / game2.9
7.0Hits / game8.8
0.93Home runs / game1.33
3.9Walks drawn / game3.5
9−6Season record9−6
6−4Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
CLE chance · ATL chance
Our model fair48.3%51.7%
Kalshi37.6%66.6%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:20 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
CLECleveland Guardians+10748%+16637.6%———
ATLAtlanta Braves−10752%−19966.6%———
SpreadATL by 0.5
CLECleveland Guardians+0.5our margin————
ATLAtlanta Braves−0.5our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.2
Over8.2our total————
Under8.2our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Atlanta Braves by 0.5 expected
Cleveland Guardians by 13 runs: <1%Cleveland Guardians by 12 runs: <1%Cleveland Guardians by 11 runs: <1%Cleveland Guardians by 10 runs: <1%Cleveland Guardians by 9 runs: 1%Cleveland Guardians by 8 runs: 1%Cleveland Guardians by 7 runs: 1%Cleveland Guardians by 6 runs: 2%Cleveland Guardians by 5 runs: 3%Cleveland Guardians by 4 runs: 5%Cleveland Guardians by 3 runs: 6%Cleveland Guardians by 2 runs: 9%Cleveland Guardians by 1 run: 18%Atlanta Braves by 1 run: 12%Atlanta Braves by 2 runs: 11%Atlanta Braves by 3 runs: 8%Atlanta Braves by 4 runs: 6%Atlanta Braves by 5 runs: 5%Atlanta Braves by 6 runs: 3%Atlanta Braves by 7 runs: 2%Atlanta Braves by 8 runs: 2%Atlanta Braves by 9 runs: 1%Atlanta Braves by 10 runs: 1%Atlanta Braves by 11 runs: <1%Atlanta Braves by 12 runs: <1%Atlanta Braves by 13 runs: <1%
← CLE wins byATL wins by →
Atlanta Braves wins by 2 or more40%
Atlanta Braves wins by 3 or more29%
Cleveland Guardians wins by 2 or more30%
Decided by one run30%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.2 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 8%4 runs: 6%5 runs: 12%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 4%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 1%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.563%
Total over 8.543%
Total over 10.526%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
CLETanner Bibee SP · last 3 starts: 13.2 IP, 3.29 ERA, 14 Kstarted
ATLChris Sale SP · last 3 starts: 16.0 IP, 3.94 ERA, 16 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
CLE·ATL
Apr 11 at ATL
last game
Apr 11 vs CLE
0 days
days of rest
0 days
7
games in last 7 days
6
3rd straight road game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 15+ games
CLE·ATL
+0.09
rating (0 = average)
+0.06
3.8
runs / game
5.1
3.6
runs allowed / game
2.9
9−6
season record
9−6
4−2
home record
5−3
5−4
away record
4−3
W1
streak
L1
6−4
last 10
6−4
7.0
hits / game
8.8
0.93
home runs / game
1.33
3.9
walks drawn / game
3.5
7.7
batter strikeouts / game
7.5
10.3
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.7
0.27
errors / game
0.53

Rating Trend

CLE · ATL · 18 days
Cleveland GuardiansAtlanta Braves
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · ATL 7−3
Apr 11at ATLCLE 6 − 0
Apr 10at ATLATL 11 − 5
Aug 17, 2025at CLEATL 5 − 4
Aug 16, 2025at CLEATL 10 − 1
Aug 15, 2025at CLEATL 2 − 0
Apr 28, 2024at ATLATL 4 − 3
Apr 27, 2024at ATLCLE 4 − 2
Apr 26, 2024at ATLATL 6 − 2
Jul 5, 2023at CLEATL 8 − 1
Jul 4, 2023at CLECLE 6 − 5

CLE · Last 10

6−4 · streak W1
Apr 11at ATL6 − 0W
Apr 10at ATL5 − 11L
Apr 8vs KC10 − 2W
Apr 7vs KC2 − 1W
Apr 6vs KC2 − 4L
Apr 5vs CHC6 − 5W
Apr 5vs CHC0 − 1L
Apr 3vs CHC4 − 1W
Apr 1at LAD4 − 1W
Mar 31at LAD1 − 4L

ATL · Last 10

6−4 · streak L1
Apr 11vs CLE0 − 6L
Apr 10vs CLE11 − 5W
Apr 8at LAA8 − 2W
Apr 7at LAA7 − 2W
Apr 6at LAA2 − 6L
Apr 5at ARI5 − 6L
Apr 4at ARI1 − 2L
Apr 3at ARI2 − 0W
Apr 2at ARI17 − 2W
Apr 1vs ATH5 − 1W