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Braves at Angels

MLB · Wednesday, Apr 8 · 3:07 PM CT · Angel Stadium · Final ATL 8 – LAA 2
← MLB / Apr 8

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
ATL113021000880
LAA020000000271
Team box
ATL·LAA
8
hits
7
1
home runs
1
6
walks
3
9
strikeouts
10
130
pitches thrown
181
0
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Matt OlsonATL1-4112
Jorge SolerLAA1-4111
Mauricio DubonATL1-5002
Jo AdellLAA3-4000
Ozzie AlbiesATL1-4101
Jonah HeimATL1-4001
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Grant Holmes (W)ATL6.25236
Reid Detmers (L)LAA4.15524

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
LAA +6
ATL +6
123456789
largest lead: LAA 0 · ATL 6lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was ATL 54%, LAA 46% · Updated Apr 8

Expected margin
ATL by 1.2
Expected score
ATL 5.1 – 3.9 LAA
Expected total
9.1
BravesThe matchupAngels
−116Our fair odds+116
5.1Expected runs3.9
+0.05Power rating−0.19
4.8Runs / game4.1
2.5Allowed / game4.5
8.7Hits / game6.4
1.33Home runs / game1.17
3.4Walks drawn / game4.0
7−5Season record6−6
5−5Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
ATL chance · LAA chance
Our model fair53.6%46.4%
Kalshi54.7%49.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 3:07 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
ATLAtlanta Braves−11654%−12154.7%———
LAALos Angeles Angels+11646%+10149.7%———
SpreadATL by 1.2
ATLAtlanta Braves−1.2our margin————
LAALos Angeles Angels+1.2our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.1
Over9.1our total————
Under9.1our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Atlanta Braves by 1.2 expected
Atlanta Braves by 15 runs: <1%Atlanta Braves by 14 runs: <1%Atlanta Braves by 13 runs: <1%Atlanta Braves by 12 runs: 1%Atlanta Braves by 11 runs: 1%Atlanta Braves by 10 runs: 1%Atlanta Braves by 9 runs: 2%Atlanta Braves by 8 runs: 2%Atlanta Braves by 7 runs: 3%Atlanta Braves by 6 runs: 4%Atlanta Braves by 5 runs: 5%Atlanta Braves by 4 runs: 7%Atlanta Braves by 3 runs: 8%Atlanta Braves by 2 runs: 11%Atlanta Braves by 1 run: 11%Los Angeles Angels by 1 run: 16%Los Angeles Angels by 2 runs: 8%Los Angeles Angels by 3 runs: 6%Los Angeles Angels by 4 runs: 4%Los Angeles Angels by 5 runs: 3%Los Angeles Angels by 6 runs: 2%Los Angeles Angels by 7 runs: 1%Los Angeles Angels by 8 runs: 1%Los Angeles Angels by 9 runs: 1%Los Angeles Angels by 10 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 11 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 12 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 13 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 14 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 15 runs: <1%
← ATL wins byLAA wins by →
Atlanta Braves wins by 2 or more47%
Atlanta Braves wins by 3 or more36%
Los Angeles Angels wins by 2 or more26%
Decided by one run27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.1 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.558%
Total over 9.541%
Total over 11.526%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
ATLGrant Holmes SP · last 3 starts: 15.0 IP, 4.20 ERA, 10 Kstarted
LAAReid Detmers SP · last 3 starts: 16.1 IP, 3.86 ERA, 25 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
ATL·LAA
Apr 7 at LAA
last game
Apr 7 vs ATL
0 days
days of rest
0 days
7
games in last 7 days
6
7th straight road game
home / road
6th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 12+ games
ATL·LAA
+0.05
rating (0 = average)
−0.19
4.8
runs / game
4.1
2.5
runs allowed / game
4.5
7−5
season record
6−6
4−2
home record
3−2
3−3
away record
3−4
W1
streak
L1
5−5
last 10
4−6
8.7
hits / game
6.4
1.33
home runs / game
1.17
3.4
walks drawn / game
4.0
7.5
batter strikeouts / game
11.0
8.0
pitcher strikeouts / game
9.6
0.50
errors / game
0.75

Rating Trend

ATL · LAA · 14 days
Atlanta BravesLos Angeles Angels
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · LAA 4−6
Apr 7at LAAATL 7 − 2
Apr 6at LAALAA 6 − 2
Jul 3, 2025at ATLLAA 5 − 1
Jul 2, 2025at ATLATL 8 − 3
Jul 1, 2025at ATLLAA 4 − 0
Aug 18, 2024at LAAATL 3 − 1
Aug 17, 2024at LAAATL 11 − 3
Aug 16, 2024at LAALAA 3 − 2
Aug 2, 2023at ATLATL 12 − 5
Aug 1, 2023at ATLATL 5 − 1

ATL · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
Apr 7at LAA7 − 2W
Apr 6at LAA2 − 6L
Apr 5at ARI5 − 6L
Apr 4at ARI1 − 2L
Apr 3at ARI2 − 0W
Apr 2at ARI17 − 2W
Apr 1vs ATH5 − 1W
Mar 31vs ATH2 − 5L
Mar 30vs ATH4 − 0W
Mar 29vs KC1 − 4L

LAA · Last 10

4−6 · streak L1
Apr 7vs ATL2 − 7L
Apr 6vs ATL6 − 2W
Apr 5vs SEA8 − 7W
Apr 4vs SEA1 − 0W
Apr 3vs SEA1 − 3L
Apr 1at CHC2 − 6L
Mar 31at CHC2 − 0W
Mar 30at CHC2 − 7L
Mar 29at HOU7 − 9L
Mar 28at HOU9 − 11L