bayesRatings

Mariners at Angels

MLB · Friday, Apr 3 · 8:38 PM CT · Angel Stadium · Final SEA 3 – LAA 1
← MLB / Apr 3

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team12345678910THE
SEA0000000003370
LAA0000000001110
Team box
SEA·LAA
7
hits
1
0
home runs
0
6
walks
1
7
strikeouts
12
127
pitches thrown
168
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Josh NaylorSEA2-5002
Randy ArozarenaSEA2-4000
Cole YoungSEA1-4101
Jorge SolerLAA0-3001
Oswald PerazaLAA1-3000
Victor RoblesSEA1-3000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Bryan WooSEA7.01016
Andres Munoz (W)SEA1.00003
Gabe Speier (S)SEA1.00001
Reid DetmersLAA6.23044
Brent Suter (L)LAA1.03210

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
LAA +3
SEA +3
12345678910
largest lead: LAA 0 · SEA 3lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was SEA 55%, LAA 45% · Updated Apr 3

Expected margin
SEA by 1.4
Expected score
SEA 5.4 – 4.0 LAA
Expected total
9.4
MarinersThe matchupAngels
−123Our fair odds+123
5.4Expected runs4.0
+0.11Power rating−0.20
3.9Runs / game4.4
3.4Allowed / game5.0
6.7Hits / game6.7
1.14Home runs / game1.43
3.7Walks drawn / game5.4
3−4Season record3−4
4−6Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
SEA chance · LAA chance
Our model fair55.2%44.8%
Kalshi61.7%42.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 8:38 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
SEASeattle Mariners−12355%−16161.7%———
LAALos Angeles Angels+12345%+13442.7%———
SpreadSEA by 1.4
SEASeattle Mariners−1.4our margin————
LAALos Angeles Angels+1.4our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.4
Over9.4our total————
Under9.4our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Seattle Mariners by 1.4 expected
Seattle Mariners by 16 runs: <1%Seattle Mariners by 15 runs: <1%Seattle Mariners by 14 runs: <1%Seattle Mariners by 13 runs: 1%Seattle Mariners by 12 runs: 1%Seattle Mariners by 11 runs: 1%Seattle Mariners by 10 runs: 1%Seattle Mariners by 9 runs: 2%Seattle Mariners by 8 runs: 3%Seattle Mariners by 7 runs: 3%Seattle Mariners by 6 runs: 4%Seattle Mariners by 5 runs: 6%Seattle Mariners by 4 runs: 7%Seattle Mariners by 3 runs: 8%Seattle Mariners by 2 runs: 10%Seattle Mariners by 1 run: 10%Los Angeles Angels by 1 run: 15%Los Angeles Angels by 2 runs: 8%Los Angeles Angels by 3 runs: 5%Los Angeles Angels by 4 runs: 4%Los Angeles Angels by 5 runs: 3%Los Angeles Angels by 6 runs: 2%Los Angeles Angels by 7 runs: 1%Los Angeles Angels by 8 runs: 1%Los Angeles Angels by 9 runs: 1%Los Angeles Angels by 10 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 11 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 12 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 13 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 14 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 15 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 16 runs: <1%
← SEA wins byLAA wins by →
Seattle Mariners wins by 2 or more49%
Seattle Mariners wins by 3 or more38%
Los Angeles Angels wins by 2 or more26%
Decided by one run26%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.4 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 5%4 runs: 4%5 runs: 9%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 7%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 4%15 runs: 4%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%25 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.561%
Total over 9.543%
Total over 11.528%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
SEABryan Woo SP · last 3 starts: 17.0 IP, 2.12 ERA, 29 Kstarted
LAAReid Detmers SP · last 3 starts: 11.2 IP, 10.80 ERA, 24 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
SEA·LAA
Apr 1 vs NYY
last game
Apr 1 at CHC
1 day
days of rest
1 day
6
games in last 7 days
6
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 7+ games
SEA·LAA
+0.11
rating (0 = average)
−0.20
3.9
runs / game
4.4
3.4
runs allowed / game
5.0
3−4
season record
3−4
3−4
home record
0−0
0−0
away record
3−4
L2
streak
L1
4−6
last 10
4−6
6.7
hits / game
6.7
1.14
home runs / game
1.43
3.7
walks drawn / game
5.4
10.3
batter strikeouts / game
11.4
10.9
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.6
0.57
errors / game
1.29

Rating Trend

SEA · LAA · 9 days
Seattle MarinersLos Angeles Angels
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · LAA 3−7
Sep 14, 2025at SEASEA 11 − 2
Sep 13, 2025at SEASEA 5 − 3
Sep 12, 2025at SEASEA 2 − 1
Sep 11, 2025at SEASEA 7 − 6
Jul 27, 2025at LAALAA 4 − 1
Jul 26, 2025at LAASEA 7 − 2
Jul 25, 2025at LAALAA 3 − 2
Jul 24, 2025at LAASEA 4 − 2
Jun 8, 2025at LAASEA 3 − 2
Jun 7, 2025at LAALAA 8 − 6

SEA · Last 10

4−6 · streak L2
Apr 1vs NYY3 − 5L
Mar 31vs NYY0 − 5L
Mar 30vs NYY2 − 1W
Mar 29vs CLE8 − 0W
Mar 28vs CLE5 − 6L
Mar 27vs CLE5 − 1W
Mar 26vs CLE4 − 6L
Oct 20, 2025at TOR3 − 4L
Oct 19, 2025at TOR2 − 6L
Oct 17, 2025vs TOR6 − 2W

LAA · Last 10

4−6 · streak L1
Apr 1at CHC2 − 6L
Mar 31at CHC2 − 0W
Mar 30at CHC2 − 7L
Mar 29at HOU7 − 9L
Mar 28at HOU9 − 11L
Mar 27at HOU6 − 2W
Mar 26at HOU3 − 0W
Sep 28, 2025vs HOU2 − 6L
Sep 27, 2025vs HOU1 − 6L
Sep 26, 2025vs HOU4 − 3W