bayesRatings

Mariners at Angels

MLB · Sunday, Apr 5 · 3:07 PM CT · Angel Stadium · Final SEA 7 – LAA 8
← MLB / Apr 5

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234567891011THE
SEA02003000110771
LAA101220000118110
Team box
SEA·LAA
7
hits
11
1
home runs
0
8
walks
3
15
strikeouts
9
181
pitches thrown
194
1
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Cole YoungSEA1-4213
Jorge SolerLAA2-4002
Adam FrazierLAA3-4101
Nolan SchanuelLAA1-5002
Leo RivasSEA1-3002
Jo AdellLAA1-5201
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Luis CastilloSEA3.26314
Gabe Speier (L)SEA0.20010
George KlassenLAA2.23254
Shaun Anderson (W)LAA2.01011

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
LAA +3
SEA +3
1234567891011
largest lead: LAA 2 · SEA 1lead changes: 6

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was SEA 55%, LAA 45% · Updated Apr 5

Expected margin
SEA by 1.3
Expected score
SEA 5.1 – 3.8 LAA
Expected total
8.9
MarinersThe matchupAngels
−125Our fair odds+125
5.1Expected runs3.8
+0.11Power rating−0.20
3.3Runs / game3.7
2.9Allowed / game4.2
6.6Hits / game6.1
0.89Home runs / game1.22
3.9Walks drawn / game4.3
4−5Season record4−5
4−6Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
SEA chance · LAA chance
Our model fair55.5%44.5%
Kalshi62.7%41.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 3:07 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
SEASeattle Mariners−12555%−16862.7%———
LAALos Angeles Angels+12544%+14041.7%———
SpreadSEA by 1.3
SEASeattle Mariners−1.3our margin————
LAALos Angeles Angels+1.3our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.9
Over8.9our total————
Under8.9our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Seattle Mariners by 1.3 expected
Seattle Mariners by 15 runs: <1%Seattle Mariners by 14 runs: <1%Seattle Mariners by 13 runs: <1%Seattle Mariners by 12 runs: 1%Seattle Mariners by 11 runs: 1%Seattle Mariners by 10 runs: 1%Seattle Mariners by 9 runs: 2%Seattle Mariners by 8 runs: 2%Seattle Mariners by 7 runs: 3%Seattle Mariners by 6 runs: 4%Seattle Mariners by 5 runs: 6%Seattle Mariners by 4 runs: 7%Seattle Mariners by 3 runs: 8%Seattle Mariners by 2 runs: 11%Seattle Mariners by 1 run: 11%Los Angeles Angels by 1 run: 16%Los Angeles Angels by 2 runs: 8%Los Angeles Angels by 3 runs: 5%Los Angeles Angels by 4 runs: 4%Los Angeles Angels by 5 runs: 3%Los Angeles Angels by 6 runs: 2%Los Angeles Angels by 7 runs: 1%Los Angeles Angels by 8 runs: 1%Los Angeles Angels by 9 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 10 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 11 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 12 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 13 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 14 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 15 runs: <1%
← SEA wins byLAA wins by →
Seattle Mariners wins by 2 or more48%
Seattle Mariners wins by 3 or more37%
Los Angeles Angels wins by 2 or more25%
Decided by one run27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.9 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.568%
Total over 8.549%
Total over 10.532%
Total from 7 to 1036%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
SEALuis Castillo SP · last 3 starts: 13.0 IP, 2.08 ERA, 11 Kstarted
LAAGeorge Klassen SP · no recent starts on recordstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
SEA·LAA
Apr 4 at LAA
last game
Apr 4 vs SEA
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
3rd straight road game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 9+ games
SEA·LAA
+0.11
rating (0 = average)
−0.20
3.3
runs / game
3.7
2.9
runs allowed / game
4.2
4−5
season record
4−5
3−4
home record
1−1
1−1
away record
3−4
L1
streak
W1
4−6
last 10
4−6
6.6
hits / game
6.1
0.89
home runs / game
1.22
3.9
walks drawn / game
4.3
9.9
batter strikeouts / game
11.0
10.6
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.6
0.44
errors / game
1.00

Rating Trend

SEA · LAA · 11 days
Seattle MarinersLos Angeles Angels
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · LAA 3−7
Apr 4at LAALAA 1 − 0
Apr 3at LAASEA 3 − 1
Sep 14, 2025at SEASEA 11 − 2
Sep 13, 2025at SEASEA 5 − 3
Sep 12, 2025at SEASEA 2 − 1
Sep 11, 2025at SEASEA 7 − 6
Jul 27, 2025at LAALAA 4 − 1
Jul 26, 2025at LAASEA 7 − 2
Jul 25, 2025at LAALAA 3 − 2
Jul 24, 2025at LAASEA 4 − 2

SEA · Last 10

4−6 · streak L1
Apr 4at LAA0 − 1L
Apr 3at LAA3 − 1W
Apr 1vs NYY3 − 5L
Mar 31vs NYY0 − 5L
Mar 30vs NYY2 − 1W
Mar 29vs CLE8 − 0W
Mar 28vs CLE5 − 6L
Mar 27vs CLE5 − 1W
Mar 26vs CLE4 − 6L
Oct 20, 2025at TOR3 − 4L

LAA · Last 10

4−6 · streak W1
Apr 4vs SEA1 − 0W
Apr 3vs SEA1 − 3L
Apr 1at CHC2 − 6L
Mar 31at CHC2 − 0W
Mar 30at CHC2 − 7L
Mar 29at HOU7 − 9L
Mar 28at HOU9 − 11L
Mar 27at HOU6 − 2W
Mar 26at HOU3 − 0W
Sep 28, 2025vs HOU2 − 6L