bayesRatings

Mariners at Angels

MLB · Saturday, Apr 4 · 8:38 PM CT · Angel Stadium · Final SEA 0 – LAA 1
← MLB / Apr 4

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
SEA000000000050
LAA10000000170
Team box
SEA·LAA
5
hits
7
0
home runs
1
3
walks
0
10
strikeouts
7
107
pitches thrown
140
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Zach NetoLAA2-4111
Julio RodriguezSEA2-4000
Jorge SolerLAA1-3000
Josh LoweLAA1-3000
Jo AdellLAA1-3000
Logan O'HoppeLAA1-3000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Emerson Hancock (L)SEA6.26105
Jack Kochanowicz (W)LAA5.24027
Jordan Romano (S)LAA1.00001

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
LAA +3
SEA +3
123456789
largest lead: LAA 1 · SEA 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was SEA 56%, LAA 44% · Updated Apr 4

Expected margin
SEA by 1.4
Expected score
SEA 5.3 – 3.9 LAA
Expected total
9.2
MarinersThe matchupAngels
−126Our fair odds+126
5.3Expected runs3.9
+0.12Power rating−0.21
3.8Runs / game4.0
3.1Allowed / game4.8
6.8Hits / game6.0
1.00Home runs / game1.25
4.0Walks drawn / game4.9
4−4Season record3−5
4−6Last 103−7

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
SEA chance · LAA chance
Our model fair55.8%44.2%
Kalshi60.7%43.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 8:38 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
SEASeattle Mariners−12656%−15460.7%———
LAALos Angeles Angels+12644%+12943.7%———
SpreadSEA by 1.4
SEASeattle Mariners−1.4our margin————
LAALos Angeles Angels+1.4our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.2
Over9.2our total————
Under9.2our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Seattle Mariners by 1.4 expected
Seattle Mariners by 15 runs: <1%Seattle Mariners by 14 runs: <1%Seattle Mariners by 13 runs: <1%Seattle Mariners by 12 runs: 1%Seattle Mariners by 11 runs: 1%Seattle Mariners by 10 runs: 1%Seattle Mariners by 9 runs: 2%Seattle Mariners by 8 runs: 3%Seattle Mariners by 7 runs: 3%Seattle Mariners by 6 runs: 4%Seattle Mariners by 5 runs: 6%Seattle Mariners by 4 runs: 7%Seattle Mariners by 3 runs: 8%Seattle Mariners by 2 runs: 11%Seattle Mariners by 1 run: 11%Los Angeles Angels by 1 run: 16%Los Angeles Angels by 2 runs: 8%Los Angeles Angels by 3 runs: 5%Los Angeles Angels by 4 runs: 4%Los Angeles Angels by 5 runs: 3%Los Angeles Angels by 6 runs: 2%Los Angeles Angels by 7 runs: 1%Los Angeles Angels by 8 runs: 1%Los Angeles Angels by 9 runs: 1%Los Angeles Angels by 10 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 11 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 12 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 13 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 14 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 15 runs: <1%
← SEA wins byLAA wins by →
Seattle Mariners wins by 2 or more49%
Seattle Mariners wins by 3 or more38%
Los Angeles Angels wins by 2 or more25%
Decided by one run26%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.2 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 4%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.559%
Total over 9.541%
Total over 11.527%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
SEAEmerson Hancock SP · last 3 starts: 16.0 IP, 2.81 ERA, 17 Kstarted
LAAJack Kochanowicz SP · last 3 starts: 10.1 IP, 18.29 ERA, 5 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
SEA·LAA
Apr 3 at LAA
last game
Apr 3 vs SEA
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
2nd straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 8+ games
SEA·LAA
+0.12
rating (0 = average)
−0.21
3.8
runs / game
4.0
3.1
runs allowed / game
4.8
4−4
season record
3−5
3−4
home record
0−1
1−0
away record
3−4
W1
streak
L2
4−6
last 10
3−7
6.8
hits / game
6.0
1.00
home runs / game
1.25
4.0
walks drawn / game
4.9
9.9
batter strikeouts / game
11.5
11.0
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.4
0.50
errors / game
1.12

Rating Trend

SEA · LAA · 10 days
Seattle MarinersLos Angeles Angels
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · LAA 2−8
Apr 3at LAASEA 3 − 1
Sep 14, 2025at SEASEA 11 − 2
Sep 13, 2025at SEASEA 5 − 3
Sep 12, 2025at SEASEA 2 − 1
Sep 11, 2025at SEASEA 7 − 6
Jul 27, 2025at LAALAA 4 − 1
Jul 26, 2025at LAASEA 7 − 2
Jul 25, 2025at LAALAA 3 − 2
Jul 24, 2025at LAASEA 4 − 2
Jun 8, 2025at LAASEA 3 − 2

SEA · Last 10

4−6 · streak W1
Apr 3at LAA3 − 1W
Apr 1vs NYY3 − 5L
Mar 31vs NYY0 − 5L
Mar 30vs NYY2 − 1W
Mar 29vs CLE8 − 0W
Mar 28vs CLE5 − 6L
Mar 27vs CLE5 − 1W
Mar 26vs CLE4 − 6L
Oct 20, 2025at TOR3 − 4L
Oct 19, 2025at TOR2 − 6L

LAA · Last 10

3−7 · streak L2
Apr 3vs SEA1 − 3L
Apr 1at CHC2 − 6L
Mar 31at CHC2 − 0W
Mar 30at CHC2 − 7L
Mar 29at HOU7 − 9L
Mar 28at HOU9 − 11L
Mar 27at HOU6 − 2W
Mar 26at HOU3 − 0W
Sep 28, 2025vs HOU2 − 6L
Sep 27, 2025vs HOU1 − 6L