bayesRatings

Braves at Diamondbacks

MLB · Thursday, Apr 2 · 8:40 PM CT · Chase Field · Final ATL 17 – ARI 2
← MLB / Apr 2

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
ATL10108200517160
ARI001000001261
Team box
ATL·ARI
16
hits
6
4
home runs
1
8
walks
2
6
strikeouts
5
131
pitches thrown
197
0
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Matt OlsonATL3-5313
Jorge MateoATL1-1112
Mauricio DubonATL2-4311
Michael Harris IIATL2-6102
Jordan LawlarARI1-2111
Dominic SmithATL1-3211
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Reynaldo Lopez (W)ATL5.04113
Osvaldo Bido (S)ATL3.02111
Ryne Nelson (L)ARI4.23233

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
ARI +16
ATL +16
123456789
largest lead: ARI 0 · ATL 16lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was ATL 48%, ARI 52% · Updated Apr 2

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
ARI 4.9 – 4.9 ATL
Expected total
9.8
BravesThe matchupDiamondbacks
+110Our fair odds−110
4.9Expected runs4.9
+0.04Power rating+0.03
4.0Runs / game4.2
2.0Allowed / game4.5
8.3Hits / game7.3
1.00Home runs / game1.17
3.7Walks drawn / game2.8
4−2Season record3−3
5−5Last 103−7

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
ATL chance · ARI chance
Our model fair47.7%52.3%
Kalshi53.7%51.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 8:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
ATLAtlanta Braves+11048%−11653.7%———
ARIArizona Diamondbacks−11052%−10751.8%———
Spreadabout even
ATLAtlanta BravesPKour margin————
ARIArizona DiamondbacksPKour margin————
Totalwe expect 9.8
Over9.8our total————
Under9.8our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Atlanta Braves by 14 runs: <1%Atlanta Braves by 13 runs: <1%Atlanta Braves by 12 runs: <1%Atlanta Braves by 11 runs: 1%Atlanta Braves by 10 runs: 1%Atlanta Braves by 9 runs: 1%Atlanta Braves by 8 runs: 2%Atlanta Braves by 7 runs: 2%Atlanta Braves by 6 runs: 3%Atlanta Braves by 5 runs: 4%Atlanta Braves by 4 runs: 6%Atlanta Braves by 3 runs: 7%Atlanta Braves by 2 runs: 9%Atlanta Braves by 1 run: 10%Arizona Diamondbacks by 1 run: 16%Arizona Diamondbacks by 2 runs: 9%Arizona Diamondbacks by 3 runs: 7%Arizona Diamondbacks by 4 runs: 5%Arizona Diamondbacks by 5 runs: 4%Arizona Diamondbacks by 6 runs: 3%Arizona Diamondbacks by 7 runs: 2%Arizona Diamondbacks by 8 runs: 2%Arizona Diamondbacks by 9 runs: 1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 10 runs: 1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 11 runs: 1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 12 runs: <1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 13 runs: <1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 14 runs: <1%
← ATL wins byARI wins by →
Arizona Diamondbacks wins by 2 or more37%
Arizona Diamondbacks wins by 3 or more27%
Atlanta Braves wins by 2 or more37%
Decided by one run26%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.8 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 5%4 runs: 4%5 runs: 9%6 runs: 6%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 7%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 4%15 runs: 4%16 runs: 3%17 runs: 3%18 runs: 2%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%25 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.564%
Total over 9.547%
Total over 11.531%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
ATLReynaldo Lopez RP · last 3 starts: 17.0 IP, 2.65 ERA, 13 Kstarted
ARIRyne Nelson SP · last 3 starts: 15.2 IP, 5.17 ERA, 14 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
ATL·ARI
Apr 1 vs ATH
last game
Apr 1 vs DET
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
road after a home game
home / road
4th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 6+ games
ATL·ARI
+0.04
rating (0 = average)
+0.03
4.0
runs / game
4.2
2.0
runs allowed / game
4.5
4−2
season record
3−3
4−2
home record
3−0
0−0
away record
0−3
W1
streak
W3
5−5
last 10
3−7
8.3
hits / game
7.3
1.00
home runs / game
1.17
3.7
walks drawn / game
2.8
7.2
batter strikeouts / game
7.5
8.0
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.2
0.50
errors / game
0.33

Rating Trend

ATL · ARI · 8 days
Atlanta BravesArizona Diamondbacks
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · ARI 6−4
Jun 5, 2025at ATLARI 11 − 10
Jun 4, 2025at ATLARI 2 − 1
Jun 3, 2025at ATLARI 8 − 3
Apr 27, 2025at ARIARI 6 − 4
Apr 26, 2025at ARIATL 8 − 7
Apr 25, 2025at ARIATL 8 − 2
Jul 11, 2024at ARIARI 1 − 0
Jul 10, 2024at ARIARI 7 − 5
Jul 9, 2024at ARIATL 6 − 2
Jul 8, 2024at ARIATL 5 − 4

ATL · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
Apr 1vs ATH5 − 1W
Mar 31vs ATH2 − 5L
Mar 30vs ATH4 − 0W
Mar 29vs KC1 − 4L
Mar 28vs KC6 − 2W
Mar 27vs KC6 − 0W
Sep 28, 2025vs PIT4 − 1W
Sep 27, 2025vs PIT1 − 3L
Sep 26, 2025vs PIT3 − 9L
Sep 24, 2025vs WSH3 − 4L

ARI · Last 10

3−7 · streak W3
Apr 1vs DET1 − 0W
Mar 31vs DET7 − 5W
Mar 30vs DET9 − 6W
Mar 28at LAD2 − 3L
Mar 27at LAD4 − 5L
Mar 26at LAD2 − 8L
Sep 28, 2025at SD4 − 12L
Sep 27, 2025at SD1 − 5L
Sep 26, 2025at SD4 − 7L
Sep 25, 2025vs LAD0 − 8L