bayesRatings

Athletics at Braves

MLB · Wednesday, Apr 1 · 11:15 AM CT · Truist Park · Final ATH 1 – ATL 5
← MLB / Apr 1

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
ATH000100000140
ATL02030000570
Team box
ATH·ATL
4
hits
7
1
home runs
0
0
walks
5
6
strikeouts
10
157
pitches thrown
117
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Drake BaldwinATL2-3104
Shea LangeliersATH2-4111
Matt OlsonATL1-4001
Dominic SmithATL2-4200
Austin WynnsATH1-3000
Jacob WilsonATH1-4000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Luis Severino (L)ATH3.14457
Chris Sale (W)ATL6.01103

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
ATL +4
ATH +4
123456789
largest lead: ATL 4 · ATH 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was ATH 45%, ATL 55% · Updated Apr 1

Expected margin
ATL by 0.6
Expected score
ATL 4.8 – 4.2 ATH
Expected total
8.9
AthleticsThe matchupBraves
+121Our fair odds−121
4.2Expected runs4.8
−0.08Power rating+0.02
3.2Runs / game3.8
4.4Allowed / game2.2
6.2Hits / game8.6
1.00Home runs / game1.20
2.4Walks drawn / game3.4
1−4Season record3−2
3−7Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
ATH chance · ATL chance
Our model fair45.3%54.7%
Kalshi34.5%69.5%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 11:15 AM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
ATHAthletics+12145%+18934.5%———
ATLAtlanta Braves−12155%−22869.5%———
SpreadATL by 0.6
ATHAthletics+0.6our margin————
ATLAtlanta Braves−0.6our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.9
Over8.9our total————
Under8.9our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Atlanta Braves by 0.6 expected
Athletics by 14 runs: <1%Athletics by 13 runs: <1%Athletics by 12 runs: <1%Athletics by 11 runs: <1%Athletics by 10 runs: <1%Athletics by 9 runs: 1%Athletics by 8 runs: 1%Athletics by 7 runs: 2%Athletics by 6 runs: 2%Athletics by 5 runs: 3%Athletics by 4 runs: 5%Athletics by 3 runs: 6%Athletics by 2 runs: 9%Athletics by 1 run: 14%Atlanta Braves by 1 run: 14%Atlanta Braves by 2 runs: 10%Atlanta Braves by 3 runs: 8%Atlanta Braves by 4 runs: 6%Atlanta Braves by 5 runs: 5%Atlanta Braves by 6 runs: 4%Atlanta Braves by 7 runs: 3%Atlanta Braves by 8 runs: 2%Atlanta Braves by 9 runs: 1%Atlanta Braves by 10 runs: 1%Atlanta Braves by 11 runs: 1%Atlanta Braves by 12 runs: <1%Atlanta Braves by 13 runs: <1%Atlanta Braves by 14 runs: <1%
← ATH wins byATL wins by →
Atlanta Braves wins by 2 or more41%
Atlanta Braves wins by 3 or more31%
Athletics wins by 2 or more31%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.9 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.569%
Total over 8.549%
Total over 10.532%
Total from 7 to 1036%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
ATHLuis Severino SP · last 3 starts: 16.1 IP, 1.65 ERA, 11 Kstarted
ATLChris Sale SP · last 3 starts: 19.0 IP, 2.37 ERA, 21 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
ATH·ATL
Mar 31 at ATL
last game
Mar 31 vs ATH
0 days
days of rest
0 days
5
games in last 7 days
5
6th straight road game
home / road
6th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 5+ games
ATH·ATL
−0.08
rating (0 = average)
+0.02
3.2
runs / game
3.8
4.4
runs allowed / game
2.2
1−4
season record
3−2
0−0
home record
3−2
1−4
away record
0−0
W1
streak
L1
3−7
last 10
5−5
6.2
hits / game
8.6
1.00
home runs / game
1.20
2.4
walks drawn / game
3.4
13.6
batter strikeouts / game
6.6
5.4
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.4
0.20
errors / game
0.60

Rating Trend

ATH · ATL · 7 days
AthleticsAtlanta Braves
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · ATL 5−5
Mar 31at ATLATH 5 − 2
Mar 30at ATLATL 4 − 0
Jul 10, 2025at ATHATH 5 − 4
Jul 9, 2025at ATHATL 9 − 2
Jul 8, 2025at ATHATH 10 − 1
Jun 2, 2024at ATLATL 3 − 1
Jun 1, 2024at ATLATH 11 − 9
May 31, 2024at ATLATL 4 − 2
May 31, 2023at ATHATL 4 − 2
May 30, 2023at ATHATH 2 − 1

ATH · Last 10

3−7 · streak W1
Mar 31at ATL5 − 2W
Mar 30at ATL0 − 4L
Mar 29at TOR2 − 5L
Mar 28at TOR7 − 8L
Mar 27at TOR2 − 3L
Sep 28, 2025vs KC2 − 9L
Sep 27, 2025vs KC2 − 4L
Sep 26, 2025vs KC4 − 3W
Sep 25, 2025vs HOU5 − 11L
Sep 24, 2025vs HOU6 − 0W

ATL · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
Mar 31vs ATH2 − 5L
Mar 30vs ATH4 − 0W
Mar 29vs KC1 − 4L
Mar 28vs KC6 − 2W
Mar 27vs KC6 − 0W
Sep 28, 2025vs PIT4 − 1W
Sep 27, 2025vs PIT1 − 3L
Sep 26, 2025vs PIT3 − 9L
Sep 24, 2025vs WSH3 − 4L
Sep 23, 2025vs WSH3 − 2W