bayesRatings

Braves at Diamondbacks

MLB · Friday, Apr 3 · 8:40 PM CT · Chase Field · Final ATL 2 – ARI 0
← MLB / Apr 3

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
ATL000000002260
ARI000000000020
Team box
ATL·ARI
6
hits
2
2
home runs
0
1
walks
3
5
strikeouts
5
120
pitches thrown
114
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Ozzie AlbiesATL3-4111
Matt OlsonATL1-4111
Ketel MarteARI1-4000
Alek ThomasARI1-3000
Ronald Acuna Jr.ATL1-4000
Drake BaldwinATL1-4000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Grant HolmesATL6.01034
Robert Suarez (W)ATL1.00000
Raisel Iglesias (S)ATL1.00000
Eduardo RodriguezARI7.04013
Paul Sewald (L)ARI0.22201

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
ARI +3
ATL +3
123456789
largest lead: ARI 0 · ATL 2lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was ATL 49%, ARI 51% · Updated Apr 3

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
ATL 5.2 – 4.8 ARI
Expected total
10.0
BravesThe matchupDiamondbacks
+104Our fair odds−104
5.2Expected runs4.8
+0.06Power rating+0.00
5.9Runs / game3.9
2.0Allowed / game6.3
9.4Hits / game7.1
1.43Home runs / game1.14
4.3Walks drawn / game2.7
5−2Season record3−4
6−4Last 103−7

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
ATL chance · ARI chance
Our model fair49.1%50.9%
Kalshi52.7%51.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 8:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
ATLAtlanta Braves+10449%−11252.7%———
ARIArizona Diamondbacks−10451%−10751.8%———
Spreadabout even
ATLAtlanta Braves−0.4our margin————
ARIArizona Diamondbacks+0.4our margin————
Totalwe expect 10.0
Over10.0our total————
Under10.0our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Atlanta Braves by 15 runs: <1%Atlanta Braves by 14 runs: <1%Atlanta Braves by 13 runs: <1%Atlanta Braves by 12 runs: 1%Atlanta Braves by 11 runs: 1%Atlanta Braves by 10 runs: 1%Atlanta Braves by 9 runs: 1%Atlanta Braves by 8 runs: 2%Atlanta Braves by 7 runs: 3%Atlanta Braves by 6 runs: 4%Atlanta Braves by 5 runs: 5%Atlanta Braves by 4 runs: 6%Atlanta Braves by 3 runs: 7%Atlanta Braves by 2 runs: 9%Atlanta Braves by 1 run: 10%Arizona Diamondbacks by 1 run: 16%Arizona Diamondbacks by 2 runs: 9%Arizona Diamondbacks by 3 runs: 6%Arizona Diamondbacks by 4 runs: 5%Arizona Diamondbacks by 5 runs: 4%Arizona Diamondbacks by 6 runs: 3%Arizona Diamondbacks by 7 runs: 2%Arizona Diamondbacks by 8 runs: 1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 9 runs: 1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 10 runs: 1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 11 runs: <1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 12 runs: <1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 13 runs: <1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 14 runs: <1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 15 runs: <1%
← ATL wins byARI wins by →
Atlanta Braves wins by 2 or more41%
Atlanta Braves wins by 3 or more31%
Arizona Diamondbacks wins by 2 or more34%
Decided by one run26%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

10.0 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 4%4 runs: 4%5 runs: 8%6 runs: 6%7 runs: 10%8 runs: 7%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 9%12 runs: 6%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 4%15 runs: 4%16 runs: 3%17 runs: 3%18 runs: 2%19 runs: 2%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: 1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%25 runs: <1%26 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 8.558%
Total over 10.541%
Total over 12.527%
Total from 9 to 1231%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
ATLGrant Holmes SP · last 3 starts: 15.0 IP, 6.00 ERA, 8 Kstarted
ARIEduardo Rodriguez SP · last 3 starts: 17.0 IP, 2.65 ERA, 16 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
ATL·ARI
Apr 2 at ARI
last game
Apr 2 vs ATL
0 days
days of rest
0 days
7
games in last 7 days
6
2nd straight road game
home / road
5th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 7+ games
ATL·ARI
+0.06
rating (0 = average)
+0.00
5.9
runs / game
3.9
2.0
runs allowed / game
6.3
5−2
season record
3−4
4−2
home record
3−1
1−0
away record
0−3
W2
streak
L1
6−4
last 10
3−7
9.4
hits / game
7.1
1.43
home runs / game
1.14
4.3
walks drawn / game
2.7
7.0
batter strikeouts / game
7.1
7.6
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.0
0.43
errors / game
0.43

Rating Trend

ATL · ARI · 9 days
Atlanta BravesArizona Diamondbacks
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · ARI 6−4
Apr 2at ARIATL 17 − 2
Jun 5, 2025at ATLARI 11 − 10
Jun 4, 2025at ATLARI 2 − 1
Jun 3, 2025at ATLARI 8 − 3
Apr 27, 2025at ARIARI 6 − 4
Apr 26, 2025at ARIATL 8 − 7
Apr 25, 2025at ARIATL 8 − 2
Jul 11, 2024at ARIARI 1 − 0
Jul 10, 2024at ARIARI 7 − 5
Jul 9, 2024at ARIATL 6 − 2

ATL · Last 10

6−4 · streak W2
Apr 2at ARI17 − 2W
Apr 1vs ATH5 − 1W
Mar 31vs ATH2 − 5L
Mar 30vs ATH4 − 0W
Mar 29vs KC1 − 4L
Mar 28vs KC6 − 2W
Mar 27vs KC6 − 0W
Sep 28, 2025vs PIT4 − 1W
Sep 27, 2025vs PIT1 − 3L
Sep 26, 2025vs PIT3 − 9L

ARI · Last 10

3−7 · streak L1
Apr 2vs ATL2 − 17L
Apr 1vs DET1 − 0W
Mar 31vs DET7 − 5W
Mar 30vs DET9 − 6W
Mar 28at LAD2 − 3L
Mar 27at LAD4 − 5L
Mar 26at LAD2 − 8L
Sep 28, 2025at SD4 − 12L
Sep 27, 2025at SD1 − 5L
Sep 26, 2025at SD4 − 7L