bayesRatings

Braves at Angels

MLB · Tuesday, Apr 7 · 8:38 PM CT · Angel Stadium · Final ATL 7 – LAA 2
← MLB / Apr 7

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
ATL0103000127122
LAA200000000260
Team box
ATL·LAA
12
hits
6
1
home runs
1
3
walks
4
12
strikeouts
14
167
pitches thrown
173
2
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Jorge SolerLAA1-1112
Ozzie AlbiesATL1-4111
Austin RileyATL2-5101
Eli WhiteATL1-2002
Drake BaldwinATL2-5001
Jonah HeimATL1-4001
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Reynaldo LopezATL4.23027
Tyler Kinley (W)ATL0.21002
Raisel Iglesias (S)ATL1.22003
Yusei Kikuchi (L)LAA5.06418

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
LAA +5
ATL +5
123456789
largest lead: LAA 2 · ATL 5lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was ATL 53%, LAA 47% · Updated Apr 7

Expected margin
ATL by 1.1
Expected score
ATL 5.0 – 4.0 LAA
Expected total
9.0
BravesThe matchupAngels
−113Our fair odds+113
5.0Expected runs4.0
+0.04Power rating−0.17
4.6Runs / game4.3
2.5Allowed / game4.3
8.4Hits / game6.5
1.36Home runs / game1.18
3.5Walks drawn / game4.0
6−5Season record6−5
5−5Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
ATL chance · LAA chance
Our model fair53.0%47.0%
Kalshi56.7%48.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 8:38 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
ATLAtlanta Braves−11353%−13156.7%———
LAALos Angeles Angels+11347%+10548.7%———
SpreadATL by 1.1
ATLAtlanta Braves−1.1our margin————
LAALos Angeles Angels+1.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.0
Over9.0our total————
Under9.0our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Atlanta Braves by 1.1 expected
Atlanta Braves by 15 runs: <1%Atlanta Braves by 14 runs: <1%Atlanta Braves by 13 runs: <1%Atlanta Braves by 12 runs: 1%Atlanta Braves by 11 runs: 1%Atlanta Braves by 10 runs: 1%Atlanta Braves by 9 runs: 2%Atlanta Braves by 8 runs: 2%Atlanta Braves by 7 runs: 3%Atlanta Braves by 6 runs: 4%Atlanta Braves by 5 runs: 5%Atlanta Braves by 4 runs: 7%Atlanta Braves by 3 runs: 8%Atlanta Braves by 2 runs: 11%Atlanta Braves by 1 run: 11%Los Angeles Angels by 1 run: 16%Los Angeles Angels by 2 runs: 8%Los Angeles Angels by 3 runs: 6%Los Angeles Angels by 4 runs: 4%Los Angeles Angels by 5 runs: 3%Los Angeles Angels by 6 runs: 2%Los Angeles Angels by 7 runs: 1%Los Angeles Angels by 8 runs: 1%Los Angeles Angels by 9 runs: 1%Los Angeles Angels by 10 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 11 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 12 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 13 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 14 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 15 runs: <1%
← ATL wins byLAA wins by →
Atlanta Braves wins by 2 or more46%
Atlanta Braves wins by 3 or more35%
Los Angeles Angels wins by 2 or more27%
Decided by one run27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.0 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.558%
Total over 9.540%
Total over 11.525%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
ATLReynaldo Lopez RP · last 3 starts: 16.0 IP, 2.81 ERA, 7 Kstarted
LAAYusei Kikuchi SP · last 3 starts: 14.2 IP, 4.91 ERA, 14 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
ATL·LAA
Apr 6 at LAA
last game
Apr 6 vs ATL
0 days
days of rest
0 days
7
games in last 7 days
6
6th straight road game
home / road
5th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 11+ games
ATL·LAA
+0.04
rating (0 = average)
−0.17
4.6
runs / game
4.3
2.5
runs allowed / game
4.3
6−5
season record
6−5
4−2
home record
3−1
2−3
away record
3−4
L3
streak
W3
5−5
last 10
5−5
8.4
hits / game
6.5
1.36
home runs / game
1.18
3.5
walks drawn / game
4.0
7.1
batter strikeouts / game
10.7
7.5
pitcher strikeouts / game
9.4
0.36
errors / game
0.82

Rating Trend

ATL · LAA · 13 days
Atlanta BravesLos Angeles Angels
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · LAA 5−5
Apr 6at LAALAA 6 − 2
Jul 3, 2025at ATLLAA 5 − 1
Jul 2, 2025at ATLATL 8 − 3
Jul 1, 2025at ATLLAA 4 − 0
Aug 18, 2024at LAAATL 3 − 1
Aug 17, 2024at LAAATL 11 − 3
Aug 16, 2024at LAALAA 3 − 2
Aug 2, 2023at ATLATL 12 − 5
Aug 1, 2023at ATLATL 5 − 1
Jul 31, 2023at ATLLAA 4 − 1

ATL · Last 10

5−5 · streak L3
Apr 6at LAA2 − 6L
Apr 5at ARI5 − 6L
Apr 4at ARI1 − 2L
Apr 3at ARI2 − 0W
Apr 2at ARI17 − 2W
Apr 1vs ATH5 − 1W
Mar 31vs ATH2 − 5L
Mar 30vs ATH4 − 0W
Mar 29vs KC1 − 4L
Mar 28vs KC6 − 2W

LAA · Last 10

5−5 · streak W3
Apr 6vs ATL6 − 2W
Apr 5vs SEA8 − 7W
Apr 4vs SEA1 − 0W
Apr 3vs SEA1 − 3L
Apr 1at CHC2 − 6L
Mar 31at CHC2 − 0W
Mar 30at CHC2 − 7L
Mar 29at HOU7 − 9L
Mar 28at HOU9 − 11L
Mar 27at HOU6 − 2W